【导读】"9·24"行情一周年，13只基金净值增长率超过200%，774只超100% 公募基金业绩全面回暖 偏股混合型基金指数上涨57.88% 在资本市场一系列改革措施带动下，自去年9月24日以来，公募基金业绩大幅回暖。 Wind数据显示，截至今年9月23日，万得偏股混合型基金指数自去年9月24日以来上涨 57.88%，多只抓住科技股行情的偏股混合型基金业绩出色。 中国基金报记者 陆慧婧 方丽 张燕北 2024年9月24日，A股市场在经历长达四年的调整后悄然开启了一轮牛市行情。 在中央汇金、保险资金等长线资金入市带动下，A股市场主要股指显著上涨。Wind数据显 示，截至2025年9月23日收盘，北证50指数自2024年9月24日以来上涨158.01%；科创50 指数、创业板指同样实现翻倍涨幅，两个指数分别上涨118.85%、103.50%；上证指数、沪 深300指数等其他主流指数同样涨幅可观。过去一年，全市场日均成交额从不足5000亿元跃 升至2万亿元以上。 牛市行情带动下，公募基金业绩全面回暖。"9·24"行情启动以来，有13只基金复权单位净值 增长率超过200%，774只基金复权单位净值增长率超过100% ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market and its various sectors, including financials, technology, real estate, and consumer services. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment and Index Performance** The market is facing short-term adjustment pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index being blocked at 3,899 points. The financial sector's significant decline has notably impacted the index's performance, raising concerns about potential top divergence risks. It is expected that adjustments may complete around the National Day holiday [1][4][6]. 2. **Long-term Market Outlook** From a long-term perspective, the upward movement since 2024 is seen as a rebound from nine years of decline, with a target of approximately 4,130 points for the index. The overall medium-term outlook is considered safe, but short-term volatility in the financial sector should be monitored [1][4][5]. 3. **Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy** There is a notable shift in market funds from large financials to hard technology sectors, with electric new energy, information technology, automotive, and machinery performing well. Investors are advised to adopt flexible allocation strategies based on risk preferences, focusing on financials and cyclical sectors in Q4 [1][10][25]. 4. **Impact of Financial Sector Decline** The financial sector has experienced a significant drop, particularly in banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, which has led to a pullback in the Shanghai Composite Index. This sector's volatility has a pronounced effect on the overall market performance [6][12]. 5. **Technology Sector Volatility** The technology sector, particularly the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50, has shown strong performance but is also facing increased volatility risks. Caution is advised as changes in investor sentiment could lead to sharp price fluctuations [7][9][20]. 6. **Investment Strategy Variations** Two main investment strategies are emerging: the "Small Deng Combination," focusing on hard technology, and the "Old Deng Combination," which emphasizes financials and cyclical stocks. The choice of strategy reflects differing risk appetites among investors [13][29]. 7. **Future Market Predictions** The market is expected to experience horizontal consolidation leading up to the National Day holiday, with support levels around 3,732 and 3,702 points. A defensive strategy is recommended during this period, with potential for upward movement post-holiday [19][24]. 8. **Policy Impact on Traditional Industries** Recent policy signals indicate a relaxation of purchase restrictions in the real estate sector, which is expected to positively influence the economy and stock market. Traditional industries are anticipated to drive the market towards the 4,000-point mark [26][28]. 9. **Consumer Services and Wealth Effect** The A-share market is exhibiting characteristics of a systematic slow bull market, which is expected to create a wealth effect that could benefit traditional consumer stocks. This trend may lead to a positive feedback loop between capital markets and consumer markets [34][33]. 10. **Sector Performance and Value Opportunities** Current high-value sectors include consumer services, real estate, automotive, and various technology fields. Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities within these sectors, particularly in the context of a slow bull market [32][35]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The market is experiencing a significant divergence, where strong sectors may not sustain their performance, potentially leading to a broader market decline. This phenomenon has historical precedents and should be closely monitored [21][22]. - The effectiveness of momentum strategies has decreased in the current volatile market environment, suggesting a shift towards mean-reversion strategies [36][37]. - The discussion emphasizes the importance of adapting investment strategies to align with market conditions and investor risk preferences, highlighting the need for flexibility in portfolio management [30][38].

Core Views - The market experienced a pullback this week, with increased volatility, primarily due to the weakness in the large financial sector and divergence in broad indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has not achieved the expected upward movement and is now in a "central oscillation" phase, with previous low points at 3732 and 3702 providing effective support [1][2][3] - It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite will continue to consolidate for 1-2 weeks, with the potential to challenge the maximum amplitude since 2015 (5178-2440) at the 0.618 level in Q4 2025, contingent on smooth market rotation [2][3] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 1.30%, 1.98%, and 0.44% respectively, while growth indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw slight increases of 0.32% and 0.21% [10][53] - The technology sector dominated, with significant gains in hard technology-related industries such as electric new energy, electronics, and communications, which rose by 3.61%, 2.75%, and 1.01% respectively. In contrast, the financial sector faced declines, with banks and non-banking financials down by 4.09% and 3.80% [13][54] - Market sentiment improved with an increase in average daily trading volume to 2.49 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance continued to rise, reaching 2.40 trillion yuan [21][27] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market included a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the TikTok issue, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and stable economic performance in China for August, with industrial value-added growth at 5.2% year-on-year [51][52] Future Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to undergo a consolidation phase for 1-2 weeks, with previous low points providing support. The market's ability to form a healthy rotation among sectors will be crucial for future upward movement [2][55] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and consider increasing allocations post-adjustment, particularly favoring real estate, infrastructure, and social services while reducing exposure to technology and media sectors [3][56]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the market, predicting a "systematic slow bull" trend with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to challenge the 0.618 retracement level of the largest decline since 2015, indicating ample bullish potential [4][68][69] - The report emphasizes a market style rotation favoring mid to large-cap stocks, with a focus on growth-oriented valuations, particularly in the consumer, cyclical, and growth sectors [5][81] - The report identifies three key "expectation gaps" for industry allocation: the dominance of large financials in market height, the need for investment and consumption to meet GDP growth targets, and the potential shift in technology investments from hardware to software sectors [6][84] Group 2 - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve for growth, consumption, and cyclical styles, while financial and stable styles may see a decline [84] - The report notes that the recent policy measures have been supportive, with a focus on technology, real estate, and consumption, aligning with the current economic characteristics [12][18] - The report suggests that the construction of new policy financial tools is likely to support infrastructure investment growth, which may positively impact related sectors [18][84]

Core Insights - The China Securities A500 ETF (560510) has risen by 2.07% as of September 11, 2025, with a trading volume of 86.545 million yuan, reflecting strong performance in the underlying index, the China Securities A500 Index (000510), which increased by 2.10% [1] - Foreign investors have injected nearly $45 billion into emerging market stocks and bonds in August, marking the highest inflow in nearly a year, with a significant portion directed towards the Chinese market, while other emerging markets experienced substantial outflows [1] - Zhejiang Securities anticipates continued short-term volatility in the market, indicating a need for further consolidation, while also suggesting that systemic factors such as policy, capital, and sentiment will support a "slow bull" market in the medium to long term [1] Company and Industry Summary - The China Securities A500 Index selects 500 securities from various industries based on market capitalization and liquidity, aiming to reflect the overall performance of the most representative listed companies across sectors [1]

Group 1 - Recent market style has shown a high-low switch, with previous hot sectors experiencing local adjustments while some tracks, such as AI and semiconductors, are performing strongly against the trend [2] - The ETF's diversified nature reduces single investment risks, as it typically holds a basket of stocks, limiting the impact of individual stock volatility on the overall ETF value [2] - Despite short-term market fluctuations and profit-taking needs, the medium to long-term trend remains a "systematic slow bull" [2] Group 2 - The "packaging" attribute of ETFs increases the probability of successful wave trading opportunities, allowing investors to focus on market, industry, or thematic growth without needing to analyze individual stock fundamentals [3] - In the current uncertain short-term market, ETFs provide a clearer holding logic, facilitating investor decision-making and reducing multi-asset allocation costs [3] - High liquidity of mainstream broad-based ETFs or industry-themed ETFs enhances trading and risk management, allowing for efficient operations similar to stock trading [3] Group 3 - Historical data since 2007 indicates that market styles have briefly switched before and after adjustments in bull market phases, with a tendency to return to previously strong styles post-adjustment [4] - The current high-low switching market resembles healthy trading behavior, with no significant large-scale sell-offs from heavily positioned institutional funds [4] - In a context of declining market risk appetite, maintaining flexible positions is advisable, with a focus on sectors with marginal fundamental improvements or policy support on the defensive side, while considering low-entry opportunities in previously adjusted sectors on the elastic side [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rebound on September 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,800 points and the ChiNext Index surging by 6.55%, marking a new high since January 2022 [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,800 stocks rising and fewer than 500 declining [2] Sector Performance - The new energy sector saw a surge, particularly in solid-state battery stocks, with companies like Paton achieving a 30% limit-up and others like Jin Yinhe and Xian Dao Intelligent also hitting 20% limit-up [2] - The photovoltaic and wind power sectors were active, with Jinlang Technology gaining 20% and several other companies seeing increases of over 10% [3] - The sports sector also showed strength, with companies like Lisheng Sports hitting the limit-up, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing sports consumption and industry growth [4] Future Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms believe that the logic supporting the A-share market's rise remains unchanged, with reasonable market valuations and no signs of excessive speculation [1][5] - Analysts suggest that the market may continue a slow upward trend in September, with growth stocks likely to outperform, driven by new positive factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][5] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain active, with continued support from capital flows and policy expectations, indicating an upward trend for A-shares [6][5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rebound on September 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,800 points and the ChiNext Index surging by 6.55%, marking a new high since January 2022 [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,800 stocks rising and fewer than 500 declining [3] Sector Performance - The new energy sector saw a strong performance, particularly in solid-state battery stocks, with companies like Paton achieving a 30% limit-up and others like Jin Yinhe and Yucheng Intelligent recording 20% limit-up [3] - The photovoltaic and wind power sectors also performed well, with Jinlang Technology and other companies seeing gains of over 10% [3] - The CPO and PCB sectors experienced a rebound, with Shenghong Technology hitting a 20% limit-up [5] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery technology is approaching a critical point for large-scale production, with several automakers planning to adopt this technology by 2027 [3] - China's dominance in the global photovoltaic and energy storage markets is highlighted, with over 70% of the global production capacity for silicon materials, wafers, batteries, and modules being controlled by China [4] - The new energy storage capacity in China exceeded 100 GW in the first half of the year and is expected to reach 291 GW by 2030 [3] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upward trend in the A-share market is likely to continue, supported by reasonable market valuations and positive policy expectations [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with technology growth and core assets likely to outperform in September [6][7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rebound on September 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,800 points and the ChiNext Index surging by 6.55%, marking a new high since January 2022 [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 4,800 stocks rising and fewer than 500 declining [5] Sector Performance - The new energy sector saw a surge, particularly in solid-state battery stocks, with companies like Paton achieving a 30% limit-up and others like Jin Yinhe and Yucheng Intelligent hitting 20% limit-up [5] - The photovoltaic and wind power sectors also performed strongly, with Jinlang Technology and other companies recording significant gains [5] - The technology sector, including CPO and PCB hardware, experienced a rebound, with Shenghong Technology reaching a 20% limit-up [7] Future Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms believe that the underlying logic supporting the A-share market's rise remains unchanged, with reasonable market valuations and no signs of excessive speculation [9][10] - Positive factors such as the potential start of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and a recovery in public fund issuance are emerging, suggesting a continued upward trend for the market [9] - Analysts predict that September may see a continuation of a slow upward trend in the A-share market, with a focus on technology growth and certain cyclical and consumer sectors [9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **A-share market**, specifically focusing on the **科创 50 Index** and **创业板 Index**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment Risks**: The 科创 50 Index and 创业板 Index are experiencing short-term adjustments due to a strong currency, with technical indicators suggesting a potential risk of correction after rapid price increases [1][3][4]. 2. **Current Market Definition**: The market is characterized as a "systematic slow bull," indicating a slower upward trend compared to previous bull markets in 2015 and 2019-2021 [1][11]. 3. **Support Levels**: The expected support level for the market is around **3,700 points**, with potential for a rebound near the **30-day moving average** [1][7][12]. 4. **Short-term Buying Opportunities**: The area around **3,700 points** is seen as a short-term buying opportunity for investors looking to increase their positions [12]. 5. **Mid-term Targets**: The mid-term target for the market remains unchanged at **4,132 to 4,200 points**, despite short-term adjustments [13]. 6. **Technical Signals**: The presence of a "top divergence" in the 科创 50 Index indicates a lack of internal momentum, suggesting a potential for short-term corrections [4][17]. 7. **Sector Recommendations**: Recommended sectors for investment include **large financials (banks, real estate, state-owned enterprises)** and the **social services industry** [1][23][32]. 8. **Market Volatility**: The market is currently experiencing significant volatility, particularly in the 创业板 and 科创 50, which are more sensitive to market fluctuations [18][22]. 9. **Investment Strategies**: The strategies include "comprehensive push" and "targeted strikes" in sectors showing improved sentiment, such as **innovative pharmaceuticals, optical modules, and solid-state batteries** [2][21]. 10. **Potential for Small Brokers**: Small brokers are highlighted as having greater investment potential due to their lower price levels and higher elasticity compared to larger brokers [24][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context**: The analysis draws parallels with past market behaviors, particularly the **2020-2021 slow bull market**, to inform current expectations [8][9]. 2. **Market Fragmentation Risks**: There is a risk of market fragmentation, where some stocks reach new highs while others fall, indicating underlying instability [19]. 3. **Economic Growth Drivers**: Future economic growth is expected to rely heavily on **infrastructure and real estate investments**, especially in the latter half of the year [29][31]. 4. **Real Estate Sector Dynamics**: The real estate sector is performing well due to favorable policies and its critical role in economic growth, particularly in the context of recent government statements [26][31]. 5. **Cautious Approach to Timing**: Investors are advised not to wait for precise market levels before making investment decisions, as this could lead to missed opportunities [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and investment strategies.