证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 本周市场继续偏强震荡，主要宽基指数明显分化。展望后市，考虑到当前市场主线并 不彰显、"炒后排"特征明显，我们认为后市仍有横盘震荡、继续夯实的需要；从主要 宽基指数走势看，市场趋势性机会或在三月中旬之后，在此之前大概率呈现"三角形 震荡"走势。恒生科技指数受部分权重股影响走势趋弱，需密切关注 20 月线和 500 天 线得失。配置方面，基于"主线不彰震荡未完，趋势机会静待 3 月"的判断，我们建 议：择时方面，中线仓维持当前持仓弹性，多看少动、等待趋势性机会，短线仓适当 选择后排低位品种、快进快出；行业方面，继续持有相对低位的证券、建材、银行等， 增加对石油石化行业事件性机会的关注；个股方面，优先选择在"924 行情"以来涨 幅落后、具有补涨潜力且能站上年线的个股，适当关注周期性行业中涨幅相对落后的 "后排品种"。 ❑ 本周（2026-02-24 至 2026-02-27）行情概况 （1）主要指数：市场继续偏强震荡，主要宽基指数明显分化。（2）板块观察： 有色反弹策动周期，传媒消费金融走弱。（3）市场情绪：两市成交额明显放大， 股指期货大多升水。（4）资金流向：两 ...

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The core viewpoint suggests a "mixed strong fluctuation" in the A-share market, recommending a cautious approach with a focus on observing rather than acting in the short term, while maintaining a "systematic slow bull" mindset for medium-term holdings [2][3] - During the holiday period, the A50 index rose by 1.39%, while the US Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased by 1.51% and 1.07% respectively, indicating mixed market factors [2] - The report anticipates that short-term opportunities may arise in AI applications and robotics sectors, which have overseas correlations and cultural relevance to the Spring Festival [2][3] Group 2: Macro Research - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a shift in the US stock market towards defensive strategies, with dividend and value stocks outperforming, while technology stocks face increased pressure [4] - Factors driving this shift include heightened geopolitical tensions, a decline in global risk appetite, and the Federal Reserve's tightening policies, which may lead to sustained high interest rates [4]

Group 1: Market Influences - The key events impacting the market during the holiday include the Trump tariff situation, the "Robot + AI Technology Spring Festival Gala," the strong appreciation of the RMB to the 6.89 range, and escalating changes in the Middle East situation [1] - The "2026 Spring Festival box office surpassing 5 billion" is highlighted as an industry bright spot that will positively catalyze related A-share sectors [1] Group 2: Trump Tariff Situation - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed by Trump under the IEEPA were unconstitutional, leading to a new 10% temporary import tariff effective February 24, with certain exemptions [3] - Analysts predict that the average tariff rate on China may temporarily decrease by 5 percentage points, while specific estimates suggest a potential 34% reduction in tariffs faced by mainland China [4] Group 3: Human-shaped Robot Industry - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala showcased several domestic humanoid robots, significantly boosting interest in the humanoid robot sector, with related stocks in Hong Kong experiencing a surge [5] - Reports indicate that the Spring Festival Gala has catalyzed significant attention and investment in the humanoid robot industry, with expectations for accelerated production and improved technology [5] Group 4: RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB showed strong appreciation during the holiday, entering the 6.89 range against the USD, primarily due to a weakening dollar rather than a strengthening RMB [7] - Analysts forecast that the RMB could reach an extreme value of 6.8 against the USD, with long-term appreciation expected as a result of ongoing dollar weakness [7] Group 5: Middle East Situation - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with U.S. military forces gathering in the region, impacting oil prices positively [8] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation is expected to benefit sectors such as gold and oil, which may see short-term market opportunities [9] Group 6: A-share Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages express a cautious optimism regarding the A-share market post-holiday, with expectations of a "systematic slow bull" opportunity [10] - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of the Spring Festival box office indicates a recovery in the film industry, recommending attention to quality film production companies and leading cinema chains [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese capital market has already completed the "de-virtualization" pricing, and there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations [1][15] - Recent overseas market risk preferences and liquidity have shown significant changes, with a growing urgency in the US and Europe to focus on real economy and strategic security [1][15] - The AI-driven disruptive innovation is breaking traditional monopolies, leading to increased anxiety in the software sector, which is currently under pressure [1][15] Group 2 - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but the spring market is still anticipated to be promising, with potential positive news in the coming months [2][16] - Historical trends indicate that the market usually experiences a temporary correction before the Spring Festival, but investors are advised to hold stocks during this period [2][16] - The market is likely to see a rebound in trading activity after the Spring Festival, supported by high-frequency data and industry hot topics [2][16] Group 3 - The best opportunities in the current market are in new technology sectors, particularly focusing on AI and related industries, with a rebound expected around the Spring Festival [3][17] - Non-bank financials are also anticipated to rebound as redemption pressures on broad-based ETFs decrease [3][17] - Mid-term investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong growth potential, including technology and cyclical industries [3][17] Group 4 - The market is currently in a wide-ranging adjustment phase, with trading activity declining as the Spring Festival approaches [4][18] - There is an ongoing style shift in the market, with a focus on balancing growth and value styles as new market leaders emerge [4][18] - The overall sentiment remains positive for a "systematic slow bull" market, with a focus on sectors like securities, social services, and construction materials [4][18] Group 5 - Short-term strategies should focus on low-crowding technology opportunities, while mid-term strategies should gradually shift towards high-dividend, low-valuation sectors [6][19] - Key sectors for mid-term investment include banks, food and beverage, and transportation, which are expected to provide stable cash flows and dividends [6][19] - Caution is advised for sectors closely tied to consumption but with limited profit elasticity [6][19] Group 6 - The current market is characterized by a "pre-holiday risk aversion" trend, with a shift in funds from high-valuation technology and cyclical sectors to value and consumer sectors [9][24] - Defensive sectors like banks and food and beverage are performing well, while previously strong sectors like computing hardware and metals are experiencing corrections [9][24] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended [9][24] Group 7 - The spring market is not over, and risks during the Spring Festival are expected to be limited, with potential improvements in economic and profit expectations [10][25] - The liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, with expectations of increased capital inflow post-holiday [10][25] - The market is anticipated to see a recovery in real estate sales during the Spring Festival, supported by favorable policies [10][25]

Group 1: Key Insights from A-Share Market Strategy Report - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations and a gradual upward trend, with a "systematic slow bull" still anticipated [3][4] - The "spring market" is seen as a precursor to the year's overall performance, driven by strong policy expectations, central bank liquidity injections, and the economic data vacuum [3][4] - Historical analysis shows that the spring market typically lasts around 70 days, with an average increase of 20% in the Shanghai Composite Index [3] Group 2: Key Insights from Bond Market Research - The bond market is expected to remain stable, with a neutral stance recommended while focusing on potential policy catalysts such as reserve requirement ratio cuts [5][6] - Current market conditions lack breakthrough factors, leading to a balanced supply-demand dynamic, with yields expected to oscillate around current levels [5][6] - Geopolitical events and ongoing central bank easing signals provide short-term support for the bond market, although further downward movement in yields is limited [5][6] Group 3: Key Insights from Medical Device Industry Report - The release of the "Guidelines for Project Approval of Surgical and Treatment Auxiliary Operations" by the National Medical Insurance Administration is a significant event for the industry [7] - The report is optimistic about the commercialization potential of domestic surgical robots, particularly with the upcoming implementation of the charging directory and accelerated overseas expansion [7] - Recommended companies include MicroPort Medical, Meihua Medical, and Aikang Medical, with a focus on those with strong production capabilities and innovative platforms [7]

Group 1 - The "spring rally" is seen as a precursor to the annual market trend, driven by strong policy expectations, central bank liquidity injections, and a vacuum period for economic data and earnings reports [1][5][6] - Historical data from 2005 to 2025 indicates that the spring rally lasts an average of 70 days, with the Shanghai Composite Index averaging a 20% increase during this period [3][7] - Leading sectors during the spring rally include growth, consumption, and cyclical styles, with strong performances from industries such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, computers, military, construction materials, electric power, chemicals, and electronics [1][2][6] Group 2 - The current "atypical spring rally" began in late December 2025, influenced by the resolution of external uncertainties and an increase in A500 ETF subscriptions [1][5] - The spring rally is expected to continue until around the Lunar New Year, with an optimistic outlook extending to early March [3][7] - The funding environment is favorable, with a significant amount of 3Y and 5Y residential time deposits maturing, a recovery in public equity fund issuance, and increased allocation of equity by insurance funds, indicating potential for further capital inflow [3][7] Group 3 - The spring rally serves as a seasonal effect, with its occurrence being consistent except for 2008 and 2018, where it did not extend to the Lunar New Year [2][6] - The end of the spring rally often coincides with changes in macroeconomic factors, and its sustainability in the second half of the year is closely related to the equity cycle, policy environment, economic fundamentals, and external variables [3][7] - As the market approaches the political meetings in early March, expectations regarding monetary and fiscal policies may be adjusted, and the market will also be assessing the first-quarter earnings reports for alignment with expectations [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a "cooling" phase with significant divergence among major indices, indicating a shift into a consolidation phase for heavyweight indices while growth indices remain strong [1][4][9]. Market Overview - The major indices have shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 breaking below the 20-day moving average, entering a consolidation phase [1][4]. - Growth indices such as CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 remain above the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for upward movement [4][9]. - Market sentiment has weakened, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in the premium of stock index futures contracts [2]. Sector Analysis - Lagging sectors are showing signs of catching up, while the financial sector is weakening and telecommunications are showing signs of recovery [2]. - The valuation levels of major indices have increased, suggesting a potential for further growth [2]. Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3][8]. - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25%, which may influence market liquidity [3][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of publicly raised securities investment funds [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a balanced mid-term portfolio in sectors with high economic activity and reasonable stock prices, particularly in the "two electricity and chemical non-machine" sectors [5][10]. - In the context of a "broad-based rally" pattern, it is advised to focus on indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 for relative returns [5][10]. - There is an opportunity to consider Hong Kong stocks, which have seen relatively lower gains, for potential buy-in during market pullbacks [5][10].

Core Insights - The market has shown signs of "cooling down," with major broad indices exhibiting divergence. The weight indices, such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, have fallen below the 20-day moving average, entering a phase of consolidation, while most growth indices remain above the 20-day line, indicating continued upward potential [1][4][54] - The current market state is characterized by "strong small caps and weak large caps," with weight indices in a consolidation phase and growth indices remaining active. This trend is expected to persist in the short term, while the overall nature of a "systematic slow bull" remains unchanged for the quarter [1][4][54] Market Overview - The market experienced a "cooling down" period from January 19 to January 23, 2026, with a noticeable decline in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62%, respectively, both breaking below the 20-day moving average. In contrast, growth indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 saw increases of 4.34%, 2.89%, and 3.33%, respectively, continuing to reach new highs in this bull market [2][12][53] - Sector performance showed that 24 out of 31 primary industries rose, with cyclical sectors like construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and real estate experiencing significant gains of 9.23%, 7.71%, 7.31%, and 5.21%, respectively. Meanwhile, the financial sector weakened, with banks and non-banking financials declining by 2.70% and 1.45% [15][53] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous week. The main futures contracts showed a premium, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [21][27] - The latest margin trading balance was 2.69 trillion yuan, down by 0.24% from the previous week. In terms of ETFs, the most significant inflow was seen in the non-ferrous metals sector, while the coal sector experienced the largest outflow [27][32] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model indicates that the valuation levels of major indices have increased. As of January 23, 2026, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.1, at the 97.03 percentile, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 33.31, at the 87.97 percentile. The ChiNext Index had a PE-TTM of 42.98, at the 35.39 percentile [44][45] Strategic Recommendations - Based on the assessment of "market cooling, index divergence, and the dominance of growth," it is recommended to maintain medium-term positions without fear of short-term fluctuations and to participate in the upcoming market momentum. Short-term positions should be cautious of volatility and avoid chasing highs [5][55] - The strategy includes balancing medium-term positions across sectors with high economic prospects and relatively reasonable stock prices, particularly in the "two electric and non-mechanical" sectors (electronics, new energy, chemicals, non-banking, and machinery). Additionally, consider the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 indices for relative returns [5][55]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of "cooling," with major indices displaying divergence, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62%, respectively, both breaking below the 20-day moving average[12] - Growth indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 have performed better, rising by 4.34%, 2.89%, and 3.33%, respectively, continuing to reach new highs in this bull market[12] Sector Performance - Among the 31 sectors, 24 saw gains while 7 experienced declines, indicating a trend of lagging sectors catching up, with cyclical industries like construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate rising by 9.23%, 7.71%, and 5.21% respectively[15] - The financial sector weakened, with banks and non-bank financials declining by 2.70% and 1.45% respectively, while the previously strong communication sector showed signs of reversal, dropping by 2.12%[15] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline in market activity[22] - The margin trading balance fell by 0.24% to 2.69 trillion yuan, with the most significant net inflow seen in the non-ferrous ETF, amounting to 19.5 billion yuan[27] Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with industrial output increasing by 5.9% and service sector growth at 5.4%[49] - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25%, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for different terms[49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced mid-term portfolio in sectors with high economic activity and reasonable valuations, particularly in the "two electricity, chemical, non-bank, and machinery" sectors, while also considering lower-positioned media and computer stocks[53] - Investors are advised to focus on the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 for relative returns, especially in a "broad-based rally" scenario[53]

Market Overview - The market experienced a surge followed by a pullback, with a general trend of "strong small caps and weak large caps" observed this week [1][2][7] - The technology sector is gaining momentum, while other styles are generally weakening [2][8] - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has significantly increased, with most stock index futures contracts trading at a discount [2][9] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The margin balance for margin trading has notably increased, although the proportion of financing purchases has decreased, indicating a net outflow from stock ETFs [2][9] - The valuation of the ChiNext index remains relatively low, and the downward energy model is at a normal level [2][8] Market Drivers - The increase in financing margin requirements by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges has influenced market dynamics [3][9] - Several listed companies issued announcements urging rational decision-making and cautious investment [3][9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a system work meeting, which may impact regulatory outlooks [3][9] Future Market Outlook - Following the recent pullback in major indices, the rapid rise in A-shares since January is expected to slow down, leading to a horizontal consolidation phase [4][10] - The current market correction is not expected to alter the "systematic slow bull" nature of the market, with expectations of reaching a target range of 5178-2440 [4][10] - The small and medium growth style is expected to continue to dominate in the near term [4][10] Investment Strategy - Based on the assessment that "correction does not harm the overall situation and technology growth is clearly superior," the company suggests two strategies: 1. Distributing current medium-term positions across sectors with high prosperity and reasonable price levels, such as electronics, new energy, chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, to participate in the market using a "defensive growth" approach [5][11] 2. Selecting relatively low-positioned indices like the CSI 1000 and National 2000, which are favored in the "broad-based rotation" pattern, as sources of relative returns [5][11] - Additionally, the Hong Kong stock market has seen relatively less increase in this round; thus, any suitable pullback buying opportunities should be closely monitored [5][11]