来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 核心观点 本周市场在A500ETF 表现强劲、商业航天持续火爆、光模块继续走强的驱动下"碎步"上行。展望后 市，我们认为A 股中线看多、"系统性慢牛"继续走高的结论具有较高的置信度；但考虑到前述三项驱动 因素的持续性有待检验，因此短期走势需要"边走边看"。配置方面，基于"中线看多慢牛继续，短线演 绎有待观察"的判断：择时方面，建议保持当前持仓，切勿随便追涨（尤其对于年内涨幅较大的品 种），若近期出现类似今年初的"黄金坑"，则积极逢低增配；行业方面，建议重点关注明显滞涨且份额 扩张的券商板块；板块方面，逢低关注前期调整充分、已经形成日线MACD 底背离的恒生科技指数； 个股方面，适当"轻指数、重个股"，重点留意年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 本周（2025-12-22 至2025-12-26）行情概况（1）主要指数：宽基指数集体上涨，中证500 涨幅居前。 （2）板块观察：市场普涨两点突出，红利消费总体偏弱。（3）市 ...

Market Performance - On December 1, 2025, major A-share indices closed in the green, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.7%[1] - The total trading volume across both markets was 1.6 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous trading day, with over 4,100 stocks rising, indicating sustained market activity[1] Sector Highlights - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded over 70% from their year-to-date low, stabilizing above 100,000 yuan/ton, driven by a strong demand growth expectation of 30%-40% globally in 2026[1] - The lithium mining sector saw significant gains due to improved supply-demand dynamics, while banks, vitamins, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors experienced slight pullbacks[1] Policy and Industry Developments - The National Space Administration announced a three-year action plan for commercial aerospace, aiming to launch 156 satellites to build a space perception constellation, which is expected to boost related sectors[2] - The Ministry of Commerce is working to expand foreign investment market access, focusing on service sectors and enhancing the investment environment for foreign enterprises[8] Financial Trends - In November, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.67%, ending a six-month streak of gains, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.23%[4] - On November 28, net inflows into the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were 175.55 billion yuan and 156.54 billion yuan, respectively, with the top sectors for inflows being general equipment, batteries, and optical electronics[5] Fund Dynamics - The number of newly established index funds has surged by over 416% year-on-year, with 160 new products launched this year, driven by policy support and investor demand[15] - The issuance of dividend-themed funds has accelerated, with a total of 66.15 billion yuan raised in November alone, marking a monthly record for the year[16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the emerging trends in the military and aerospace sectors, particularly focusing on low-altitude flight opportunities and the potential of eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft [2] - It highlights the participation of various experts and commentators in the aviation field, indicating a collaborative effort to explore these trends [2] - The event aims to showcase nearly 30 eVTOL aircraft, emphasizing the competition and innovation in defining the future of low-altitude travel [2] Group 2 - The article outlines the upcoming 2026 investment strategy conference by Zhejiang Merchants Asset Management, focusing on the second phase of a "systematic slow bull" market and the role of technology growth [5] - It raises questions about asset allocation in low-volatility dividend assets and the investment opportunities in the new cycle starting from the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - The conference will feature insights from a prominent fund manager, indicating a focus on strategic investment planning [5] Group 3 - The UBS presentation on the Chinese smart driving industry for 2026 aims to identify key breakthroughs and the timeline for the large-scale deployment of Robotaxi [7] - It discusses the growth logic of the lidar market and identifies core players within this sector, highlighting investment opportunities [7] - The event will feature a range of experts from UBS, showcasing a comprehensive analysis of the smart driving landscape [7] Group 4 - The CITIC Construction Investment report focuses on the collaboration between the electric, mechanical, and automotive industries in 2026, exploring how they can initiate a new cycle [9] - It addresses the impact of high proportions of renewable energy integration on energy storage demand and the potential of humanoid robots and solid-state battery technology to lead a new wave in high-end manufacturing [9] - The report also examines how the globalization of automotive intelligence may reshape industry chain dynamics and valuation logic [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A500 index and its associated ETF are experiencing positive momentum, with significant gains in individual stocks and active trading, indicating a favorable market environment for technology and cyclical sectors [1][2]. Group 1: A500 Index Performance - As of November 26, 2025, the A500 index rose by 0.98%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang (up 14.53%) and Maiwei Co. (up 11.98%) [1]. - The A500 ETF (512050) also saw a rise of 0.97%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.14 yuan [1]. - The A500 ETF recorded a turnover rate of 20.34% and a trading volume of 40.33 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Over the past three days, the A500 ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, totaling 9.07 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 6.42 billion yuan [1]. - According to Dongfang Securities, despite a recent pullback, the market is in a healthy consolidation phase, with potential for upward movement as policy clarity and earnings disclosures approach in early 2026 [1]. Group 3: Sector Insights - Zhejiang Securities anticipates a "systematic slow bull" market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to oscillate between its previous high and a significant retracement level [2]. - The A500 ETF closely tracks the A500 index, which comprises 500 large-cap, liquid stocks from various industries, representing the overall performance of major listed companies [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index account for 19.36% of the index, including major players like Ningde Times and Kweichow Moutai [2].

Group 1: Key Insights on Weiteou (301319) - The recommendation logic indicates that electronic assembly materials are transitioning from domestic substitution to the global market, with perfluorohexane microcapsule fireproof materials expected to see significant growth in the new energy sector [4] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,557 million, 2,133 million, and 2,796 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 28.5%, 37.0%, and 31.1% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 102 million, 124 million, and 153 million yuan, with growth rates of 13.8%, 21.5%, and 23.5% [4] - Key catalysts include exceeding expectations in electronic assembly material orders, auxiliary welding material shipment ratios, and perfluorohexane microcapsule material orders [4] Group 2: Insights on Pharmaceutical Industry - The core viewpoint emphasizes the potential for domestic innovative drugs to break into international markets, driven by the "engineer dividend" which enhances clinical efficiency and data quality [5] - The report suggests that the domestic innovative drug pipeline is gaining recognition from multinational corporations (MNCs), with several technical fields achieving global leadership in pipeline quantity [5] - The driving factors include exceeding expectations in business development (BD), clinical data, and commercialization in overseas markets [5] Group 3: Insights on Food and Beverage Industry - The core viewpoint suggests focusing on left-side investment opportunities in the liquor sector as it approaches a cyclical recovery, while consumer goods are expected to continue benefiting from new consumption trends [7] - The report indicates that liquor companies' performance expectations are at a low point, with signals of stock price stabilization and potential rebounds [7] - Key drivers include the bottoming out of liquor company performance expectations and the expansion into new product categories and channels [7] Group 4: Insights on A-Share Strategy - The core viewpoint advises against blind selling during market adjustments, suggesting that a systematic "slow bull" market is still in play and may enter a second phase after adjustments [8] - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector as a signal for potential market recovery, advocating for patience during the current market corrections [8] - Key drivers include the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations on global markets and the need for a rebalancing of market styles in the fourth quarter [9] Group 5: Insights on Macro Economic Strategy - The core viewpoint outlines three main paths to improve the resident consumption rate: promoting employment and income stability, expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, and refining institutional mechanisms [11] - The report highlights the importance of the 15th Five-Year Plan in driving domestic consumption as a key economic growth engine [11] - The driving factors include the recent policy directions from the Communist Party's plenary session aimed at enhancing domestic consumption [11] Group 6: Insights on Fixed Income Market - The core viewpoint indicates that interbank liquidity is expected to remain loose in the short term, with seasonal disturbances amplifying the effects of low core reserves [12] - The report suggests that the true test of narrow liquidity may occur in the first quarter of 2026, influenced by credit slowdowns and central bank interventions [12] - Key drivers include the anticipated surge in credit in early 2026 and the market's limited understanding of the net financing outflows from major banks [12]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market has been affected by the weakened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant decline in global stock markets, including A-shares [1][55] - It is suggested that the current market adjustment is necessary, and investors should not panic sell but rather wait for the market to stabilize, particularly focusing on the brokerage sector as a signal for potential recovery [1][5][57] - The report anticipates that the systemic "slow bull" market is not over and may enter a "second phase" after the current adjustments [1][4][56] Market Overview - Major indices in the A-share market experienced declines due to global market fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 dropping by 3.90%, 2.72%, and 3.77% respectively [12][55] - The growth indices, such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, saw larger declines of 5.78% and 5.80%, while the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 fell by 6.15% and 5.54% respectively [12][55] - The Hong Kong market mirrored the A-share performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index declining by 5.09% and 7.18% [12][55] Sector Analysis - All major sectors in the market experienced declines, with the banking and food & beverage sectors showing relative resilience, falling only by 0.87% and 1.36% respectively [14][55] - Sectors that had previously performed well, such as electric new energy and basic chemicals, saw significant declines of 9.41% and 8.24% [14][55] - The report highlights that investors should differentiate between high and low-performing stocks, advising against holding onto recently broken high-position stocks while retaining positions in relatively low-position sectors like brokerage, consumption, and real estate [5][57] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.85 trillion yuan, indicating a drop in market activity [23][55] - The main stock index futures contracts showed a negative basis, suggesting bearish sentiment among investors [23][55] Fund Flow - The margin trading balance slightly decreased to 2.48 trillion yuan, with a financing buy ratio of 10.11% [29][55] - The report notes that the medical ETF saw the highest net inflow of 2.8 billion yuan, while the banking ETF experienced the largest outflow of 13.9 billion yuan [29][55] Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the valuation levels of major indices have receded, with the current PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index at 16.1, placing it at the 84.13 percentile [47][55] - The dynamic valuation model suggests that the current market indices are within a normal range, indicating potential for future recovery [50][55]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline with over 5000 stocks falling, leading to a drop in major indices: Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% to 3834.89 points, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41%, ChiNext Index down 4.02%, and Beixin 50 down 4.71% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares was 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase from 1.72 trillion yuan the previous day [1] Weekly Performance - For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9%, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 5.13%, and ChiNext Index decreased by 6.15% [2] External Influences - The decline in A-shares was attributed to external shocks, particularly a significant drop in the US stock market, with the Nasdaq Index falling 2.15%, leading to a global sell-off of risk assets [2] - There is a noted shift of funds from high-valuation sectors to safer assets within the A-share market [2] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to experience a downward trend in the short term, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3850 points [2] - There is a call for increased confidence in market valuations and a promotion of value investment principles [2] - Recommendations for investors include focusing on policy-driven sectors and well-adjusted growth stocks [2] Economic Indicators and Policy Considerations - Future market focus may shift towards the manufacturing PMI for November and the Federal Reserve's December meeting [2] - If the PMI remains weak, attention may turn to policy-driven defensive sectors; conversely, a drop in US core PCE inflation could raise expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] Global Market Conditions - The current global market is characterized by heightened risk aversion and tightening liquidity, influenced by various factors including the Epstein case, rising inflation concerns, and uncertain economic outlook [3] - Investors are advised to be cautious with dollar assets and to monitor policy signals leading up to the Federal Reserve's December meeting [3]

Group 1 - The value ETF (510030) showed stable performance with a 0.45% increase and a trading volume of 2.1 million yuan as of 10:19 AM on November 20 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, China Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Everbright Bank had notable performances with increases of 3.5%, 2.2%, and 1.67% respectively [1] - Conversely, China Merchants Energy, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and SAIC Motor experienced declines of 1.72%, 1.07%, and 1.05% respectively [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicated that by 2026, the industry style will become more balanced, with cyclical and technology growth sectors advancing together [2] - The recovery of global manufacturing, U.S. interest rate cuts, and domestic policies against "involution" are favorable for cyclical styles [2] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from a "systematic slow bull" wealth effect and increased domestic demand policies, particularly in food and beverage and social services [2] - Traditional industries such as basic chemicals and machinery will benefit from the emphasis on capacity optimization in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The value ETF (510030) passively tracks the 180 Value Index, with top ten weighted stocks including China Ping An, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [2]

Market Overview - On November 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.44%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.97%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.38% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 19 were non-ferrous metals (+2.39%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.67%), defense and military (+1.11%), beauty and personal care (+1.09%), and banking (+0.92%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-3.08%), real estate (-2.09%), media (-1.72%), building materials (-1.71%), and retail (-1.7%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 19 was 17,426.66 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.591 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - In October 2025, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure slowed down due to a combination of factors: a phase of retreat following a preemptive fiscal push earlier in the year and a high base effect from the previous year [5] - The Ministry of Finance reported that fiscal policy implementation fell short of expectations, with hidden debts increasing beyond expectations [5] Strategic Research - The market outlook suggests a "systematic slow bull" phase, indicating a slower and more systematic market movement [6] - Inflation is expected to return, with a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors in 2026 [6] - The market remains neutrally optimistic, considering various factors such as international conditions, economic cycles, domestic policies, capital flows, market sentiment, and broad valuations [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to experience a gradual upward trend, with fluctuations expected between the high point in February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of the range from 5,178 to 2,440 [6]

Group 1: Company Insights - The core recommendation for NetDragon (00777) is based on its dual business model of gaming and education, with significant revenue expected from its investment in the group broadcasting business [4] - Revenue projections for NetDragon from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.67 billion, 4.88 billion, and 5.10 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year changes of -22.77%, 4.45%, and 4.47% respectively [4] - The expected net profit for NetDragon during the same period is projected to be 415 million, 650 million, and 725 million CNY, with growth rates of 33.52%, 56.49%, and 11.63% respectively [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The recommendation for Tianhe Defense (300397) highlights its potential recovery in the military sector under the "14th Five-Year Plan," with opportunities in low-altitude and deep-sea technology [5] - Revenue forecasts for Tianhe Defense from 2025 to 2027 are 522 million, 697 million, and 928 million CNY, with growth rates of 29.7%, 33.7%, and 33.1% respectively [5] - The expected net profit for Tianhe Defense during this period is projected to be 10.4 million, 26.9 million, and 60.4 million CNY, with earnings per share of 0.02, 0.05, and 0.12 CNY [5] Group 3: Macro Insights - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, with more substantial easing policies likely reserved for early 2026 [6][7] - The central bank's recent policy adjustments suggest that the most significant economic pressures may have passed, supporting a stable economic outlook [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external factors such as U.S. inflation and its impact on monetary policy decisions in China [7] Group 4: Strategy Insights - The A-share strategy report suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a bullish phase, with a focus on cyclical and technology growth sectors [8] - Key investment themes include technology and domestic demand, with specific attention to AI computing, robotics, solid-state batteries, photolithography, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and the silver economy [8] - The report maintains a neutral to optimistic outlook on the market, considering various economic and policy factors [8]