Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities indicates that after the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, it has experienced a pullback, with significant differentiation among various broad-based indices [1] Market Outlook - If the Shanghai Composite Index remains above the trend line and does not fall below the previous platform top of 3936 points, the upward trend can be maintained [1] - The ChiNext Index is currently in a weak oscillation pattern, and its stabilization depends on the performance of the weighted index and core constituent stocks [1] Sector Analysis - The brokerage sector, which has lagged in previous gains and has significant room for catch-up, still requires observation for short-term directional choices [1] - In terms of sector allocation, there is a recommendation to focus on the movements of the brokerage sector, which may attempt to challenge the high point of November 2024 if it moves upward, while there is support at the annual line if it moves downward [1] - Attention should also be given to relatively low-positioned sectors such as steel, consumption, and state-owned infrastructure, shifting from a "technology-first" approach in Q3 to a "relatively balanced" allocation style [1] Strategic Recommendations - The company suggests maintaining a systematic "slow bull" mindset at the strategic level, while tactically keeping current positions without making increases or decreases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a systematic slow bull market, driven by multiple favorable factors and increasing liquidity, with expectations of continued upward momentum in stock prices [1][3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3999.07 points, closing at 3996.94 points, marking a 1.18% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.51% and 1.98% respectively [2]. - Total trading volume in the two markets reached 23,401 billion, an increase of 3,659 billion from the previous trading day, indicating a growing bullish sentiment [2]. Supporting Factors for Market Growth - Policy support is evident with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing technological innovation and key sectors like integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, which are expected to see a 57% increase in IPO financing by 2025 [3]. - The external environment is improving, with positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased capital inflows [3]. Structural Changes in Capital Flow - Analysts agree that the A-share market has entered a systematic slow bull phase, with ongoing capital inflows creating a wealth effect [4]. - The current stock allocation among Chinese households is only 22%, significantly lower than real estate at 55%, indicating potential for substantial capital migration into the stock market [4]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The MSCI China Index has a dynamic P/E ratio of 12.9, and the CSI 300 Index is at 14.4, both showing a discount compared to developed markets, suggesting room for growth [5]. - Despite a slight cooling in market sentiment since October, the overall inflow of capital remains stable, with limited short-term adjustment space anticipated [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a systematic slow bull phase, with significant inflows of new capital expected and a positive wealth effect anticipated, indicating a sustainable positive feedback effect in the market [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index rose by 1.1% at midday, while the CSI A100 Index increased by 0.9%, and the CSI A50 Index saw a rise of 0.7% [1]. - The A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) experienced a substantial trading volume, with a net subscription of 320 million units in half a day [1]. Group 2: Market Metrics - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI A500 Index is 17.1 times, with an estimated value of 74 [3]. - The rolling P/E ratio for the CSI A50 Index is 18.3 times [6].

廖市无双：系统性"慢"牛被终结了吗？20251019 您提到今年七八月份行情启动时进行了策略调整，请详细说明这一过程及其效 果。 今年七八月份行情启动时，我们在 6 月 24 日将策略从短线空、中线多调整为 短线多、中线多。这一策略调整基于对市场环境和技术指标的分析。在随后的 时间里，我们坚持不做差价，一直持有股票直到破趋势线时再进行调整。这一 过程中几乎没有犯错，在择时方面表现出色。 在 9 月初的一次回调后，我们选 择更换行业配置，而不是通过择时操作来应对波动。这一举措旨在通过不同方 式获取收益。然而，在 9 月中旬，大资金压制大金融板块，导致资金流向双创 板块，引发老灯股与小灯股之间严重分化。尽管如此，通过及时调整行业配置， 我们仍然能够有效应对市场变化，并保持较好的收益表现。 如何评估当前市场中的极端情绪及其对未来走势的影响？ 好风险，以应对可能出现的不确定性因素。 Q&A 当前市场情绪变化迅速，投资者对系统性慢牛的持续性存在疑虑，您对此有何 看法？ 市场情绪的变化确实非常快。近期市场从既兴奋又忐忑转变为既忐忑又有期待， 这种情绪波动反映了投资者对未来的不确定性。我们认为当前市场的回调是一 种情绪达到 ...

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 "内外两因"触发调整，再平衡、控弹性 ——A 股市场运行周报第 63 期 核心观点 本周由于内因（前期涨幅过大，市场有内生性调整压力）和外因（特朗普再度掀起关 税战）共振，市场明显承压，主要宽基指数均录得负收益。展望后市，由于双创指数 本周已"有效跌破"上升趋势线，后市大概率进行周线级整理；而上证和上证 50 仍保 持在上升趋势线上方，虽然有较大概率跟随双创调整，但也保留了继续上攻的可能性。 市场风格方面，大盘明显在当前位置进行"换挡"，我们预计后续仍会有部分资金进行 风格切换和行业再平衡；其中，大金融（尤其券商）将是权重指数重新展开攻势的"核 心变量"。配置方面，基于"双创调整科技弱化，市场震荡资金切换"的判断，坚持系 统性"慢"牛思维，待市场调整结构完善、"倒车接人"机会来临时再进行增配。建议 绝对收益资金重点关注大金融、地产、中字头基建、红利等；考虑到双创已经跌破趋 势线，建议相对收益风格在双创指数反弹时逢高控制组合弹性、做好"再平衡"，适当 进行板块间、板块内"高切低"。 ❑ 本周（2025-10-13 至 2025-10-17）行情概况 （1）主要指数 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights a dual bullish trend for both the Renminbi and the US dollar, driven by market dynamics and external factors [4] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" strategy, with a focus on financial sectors and real estate for absolute returns, while monitoring the innovation index for relative returns [6] - The report emphasizes China's commitment to climate governance through its NDC goals, with AI playing a crucial role in green finance and energy transition [8] Group 1: Macro Insights - The report discusses the rebound of the US dollar index during the National Day holiday, attributed to a temporary risk aversion due to the US government shutdown [4] - Future expectations for the US dollar index are linked to potential corrections in the market's recession forecasts for the US economy [4] Group 2: A-Share Strategy - The report suggests that investors should focus on large financial institutions, real estate, and infrastructure for absolute returns, while being cautious of the innovation index's performance [6] - The report notes that if the innovation index fails to recover its upward trend, adjustments may be necessary [6] - The report maintains confidence in a "slow bull" market, viewing any significant pullbacks as opportunities for increased allocation [6] Group 3: ESG and Climate Goals - The report outlines China's 2035 NDC goals, emphasizing progress in reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases and the importance of AI in promoting efficient energy use [8] - It highlights the divergence in sustainable policy directions between federal and local governments in the US, alongside significant movements in ESG indices [8] - The report notes a nearly 15% increase in the SEEE carbon neutrality index, while the national carbon price has dipped below 60 yuan per ton [8] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - The report on Taotao Automotive indicates a projected 116% year-on-year increase in Q3 performance, positioning the company as a leading player in the North American leisure vehicle market [10] - The gaming sector is highlighted as a key growth area, with expectations for a significant valuation shift by 2026, suggesting a potential 25 times P/E ratio [11] - The report identifies risks related to new game launches and international trade policies that could impact the gaming industry's growth trajectory [12]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points but faced a pullback, leading to increased market volatility. The outlook remains optimistic for a systematic "slow bull" market, with potential adjustments viewed as opportunities for increased allocation [1][4][58] - The report suggests a strategic focus on large financials, real estate, and infrastructure sectors, while tactical operations should monitor the performance of the ChiNext Index and key moving averages [1][5][59] Market Overview - The major indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight increase of 0.37% over the week, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market saw declines of 3.86% and 2.85% respectively [12][56] - The report highlights a significant rise in cyclical sectors, with non-ferrous metals up by 4.35%, and coal and electricity sectors also performing well. Conversely, technology sectors showed weakness, with declines in media, electronics, and communications [15][57] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.59 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity. The margin trading balance also continued to rise, reaching 2.44 trillion yuan [24][29] - The report notes that the stock ETF saw a net inflow of 10.4 billion yuan, with the securities ETF leading in inflows, while the medical ETF experienced the largest outflow [31][39] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates that if the ChiNext Index does not recover its upward trend in the short term, it may undergo a weekly level consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index, having formed a five-wave structure, is expected to continue its upward trajectory unless external shocks disrupt this trend [4][58] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of key sectors, particularly large financials and cyclical stocks, as the market may shift focus away from technology [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - The "9·24" market rally has marked a significant turning point for the A-share market, leading to a bull market characterized by substantial index gains and a resurgence in public fund performance [2][12]. Market Performance - Since the "9·24" rally began, the North Securities 50 Index has risen by 158.01%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index and the ChiNext Index have both more than doubled, increasing by 118.85% and 103.50% respectively [2]. - The average daily trading volume in the market surged from less than 500 billion to over 2 trillion [2][12]. Fund Performance - A total of 13 funds have achieved a net value growth rate exceeding 200%, and 774 funds have surpassed 100% growth since the rally began [2][5]. - The Wind data indicates that the mixed equity fund index has increased by 57.88% since September 24, 2024 [4]. Key Fund Performers - The top-performing fund, Debon Xinxing Value Mixed Fund, recorded a net value growth of 280.31% [5][6]. - Other notable funds with over 200% growth include China Europe Digital Economy Fund (266.27%) and CITIC Construction Investment North Exchange Selection Fund (263.38%) [5][6]. Market Drivers - The market's significant rise is attributed to three main factors: ongoing stock market reforms, improved policy expectations, and milestone events in various sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and robotics [7]. - The core drivers of the A-share market's rise include supportive policies, rapid breakthroughs in technology industries, and a notable increase in market risk appetite [7][12]. Structural Market Changes - The A-share market has seen substantial improvements in valuation, liquidity, and investor structure since the "9·24" rally [12]. - The average valuation (PE-TTM) of the Wind All A Index has risen from 15.63 times to 22.16 times [12]. Future Outlook - The "9·24" rally is viewed as a critical turning point, with expectations for a sustained "slow bull" market trend supported by continuous policy support and structural upgrades in industries [13]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric power, driven by industry policy support and technological breakthroughs [15][16].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market and its various sectors, including financials, technology, real estate, and consumer services. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment and Index Performance** The market is facing short-term adjustment pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index being blocked at 3,899 points. The financial sector's significant decline has notably impacted the index's performance, raising concerns about potential top divergence risks. It is expected that adjustments may complete around the National Day holiday [1][4][6]. 2. **Long-term Market Outlook** From a long-term perspective, the upward movement since 2024 is seen as a rebound from nine years of decline, with a target of approximately 4,130 points for the index. The overall medium-term outlook is considered safe, but short-term volatility in the financial sector should be monitored [1][4][5]. 3. **Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy** There is a notable shift in market funds from large financials to hard technology sectors, with electric new energy, information technology, automotive, and machinery performing well. Investors are advised to adopt flexible allocation strategies based on risk preferences, focusing on financials and cyclical sectors in Q4 [1][10][25]. 4. **Impact of Financial Sector Decline** The financial sector has experienced a significant drop, particularly in banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, which has led to a pullback in the Shanghai Composite Index. This sector's volatility has a pronounced effect on the overall market performance [6][12]. 5. **Technology Sector Volatility** The technology sector, particularly the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50, has shown strong performance but is also facing increased volatility risks. Caution is advised as changes in investor sentiment could lead to sharp price fluctuations [7][9][20]. 6. **Investment Strategy Variations** Two main investment strategies are emerging: the "Small Deng Combination," focusing on hard technology, and the "Old Deng Combination," which emphasizes financials and cyclical stocks. The choice of strategy reflects differing risk appetites among investors [13][29]. 7. **Future Market Predictions** The market is expected to experience horizontal consolidation leading up to the National Day holiday, with support levels around 3,732 and 3,702 points. A defensive strategy is recommended during this period, with potential for upward movement post-holiday [19][24]. 8. **Policy Impact on Traditional Industries** Recent policy signals indicate a relaxation of purchase restrictions in the real estate sector, which is expected to positively influence the economy and stock market. Traditional industries are anticipated to drive the market towards the 4,000-point mark [26][28]. 9. **Consumer Services and Wealth Effect** The A-share market is exhibiting characteristics of a systematic slow bull market, which is expected to create a wealth effect that could benefit traditional consumer stocks. This trend may lead to a positive feedback loop between capital markets and consumer markets [34][33]. 10. **Sector Performance and Value Opportunities** Current high-value sectors include consumer services, real estate, automotive, and various technology fields. Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities within these sectors, particularly in the context of a slow bull market [32][35]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The market is experiencing a significant divergence, where strong sectors may not sustain their performance, potentially leading to a broader market decline. This phenomenon has historical precedents and should be closely monitored [21][22]. - The effectiveness of momentum strategies has decreased in the current volatile market environment, suggesting a shift towards mean-reversion strategies [36][37]. - The discussion emphasizes the importance of adapting investment strategies to align with market conditions and investor risk preferences, highlighting the need for flexibility in portfolio management [30][38].

Core Views - The market experienced a pullback this week, with increased volatility, primarily due to the weakness in the large financial sector and divergence in broad indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has not achieved the expected upward movement and is now in a "central oscillation" phase, with previous low points at 3732 and 3702 providing effective support [1][2][3] - It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite will continue to consolidate for 1-2 weeks, with the potential to challenge the maximum amplitude since 2015 (5178-2440) at the 0.618 level in Q4 2025, contingent on smooth market rotation [2][3] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 1.30%, 1.98%, and 0.44% respectively, while growth indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw slight increases of 0.32% and 0.21% [10][53] - The technology sector dominated, with significant gains in hard technology-related industries such as electric new energy, electronics, and communications, which rose by 3.61%, 2.75%, and 1.01% respectively. In contrast, the financial sector faced declines, with banks and non-banking financials down by 4.09% and 3.80% [13][54] - Market sentiment improved with an increase in average daily trading volume to 2.49 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance continued to rise, reaching 2.40 trillion yuan [21][27] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market included a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the TikTok issue, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and stable economic performance in China for August, with industrial value-added growth at 5.2% year-on-year [51][52] Future Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to undergo a consolidation phase for 1-2 weeks, with previous low points providing support. The market's ability to form a healthy rotation among sectors will be crucial for future upward movement [2][55] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and consider increasing allocations post-adjustment, particularly favoring real estate, infrastructure, and social services while reducing exposure to technology and media sectors [3][56]