Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the growth potential of Mixue Ice City, focusing on its business model, market expansion, and the competitive landscape within the beverage industry, particularly in the context of the current market valuation and growth opportunities [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current market for ready-to-drink beverages is divided into packaged and freshly made drinks, with the latter experiencing significant growth due to consumer demand for freshness and social engagement [6][7]. - Freshly made beverages have increased their market share from 24% in 2019 to nearly 40% currently, with projections suggesting it could reach 50% by 2028 [8][10]. Group 2: Growth Potential of Mixue Ice City - The potential for Mixue Ice City to expand its store count is significant, with estimates suggesting a possible increase to 57,000 to 61,000 stores across China, representing a 50%-60% growth from current levels [10][14]. - The analysis indicates that the brand's growth will be driven by capturing market share from other beverage brands, particularly local non-chain tea shops, as well as expanding into rural areas where competition is less intense [16][24]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has intensified due to a price war among beverage brands, leading to a reduction in average product prices from 15-20 RMB to 10-15 RMB [18][20]. - Mixue Ice City has maintained a low closure rate of 3.1% in 2024, allowing it to capitalize on the market share vacated by struggling competitors [21]. Group 4: Expansion into Rural Markets - Mixue Ice City has begun expanding into rural areas, with over 4,900 stores established in towns by the end of 2024, and plans to increase this number significantly in the coming years [23][24]. - The brand's pricing strategy aligns well with rural consumer spending power, making it well-positioned to dominate in these markets [24][25]. Group 5: Challenges for Lucky Coffee - The coffee brand Lucky Coffee, acquired by Mixue, has struggled to gain traction, primarily due to its focus on lower-tier markets and a lack of brand recognition compared to competitors like Luckin Coffee [29][32]. - Lucky Coffee's average monthly revenue is only 60% of that of Mixue Ice City, and its profitability is hindered by higher costs associated with coffee bean procurement [39][40]. - The potential for Lucky Coffee to expand is limited, with estimates suggesting it could reach around 9,400 stores, but this is contingent on developing coffee consumption habits in lower-tier markets [41][43].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight declines with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3388.59, up 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10211.58, up 0.08% [1] - Hong Kong stocks also saw a downturn, with the Hang Seng Index at 23892.40, down 0.06%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 5310.59, down 0.18% [2][3] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector showed strength, particularly silver, with Hunan Silver reaching a limit-up increase of 9.89% [6][7] - New consumption stocks in Hong Kong, including Mixue Group, Pop Mart, and Laopu Gold, continued their adjustment trend, with declines of 1.32%, 0.49%, and 0.72% respectively [5][9] Bond Market - The bond market saw collective gains in government bond futures, with the 30-year contract up 0.20%, the 10-year up 0.15%, and the 5-year up 0.12% [3][4] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures opened mostly higher, with coking coal rising over 4% and glass and silver increasing by over 3% [10]