Group 1 - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage industry has entered a high growth phase, with a market size of 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, expected to grow to 627.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 22.5% from 2018 to 2023 [1] - The two core segments of the ready-to-drink beverage market are ready-to-drink tea and coffee, with market sizes of 258.5 billion yuan and 172.1 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 50.0% and 33.3% of the market respectively [1] - The ready-to-drink tea market is the largest segment, while the ready-to-drink coffee market is experiencing the fastest growth [1] Group 2 - The ready-to-drink tea segment has undergone three development stages, driven by multiple factors [2] - The modern milk tea originated in Taiwan in 1987, with the introduction of pearl milk tea in the 1990s leading to its popularity in coastal cities [2] - The 21st century saw the establishment of brands like Street Guest and Underground Rail, marking the beginning of large-scale development in the industry [2] - In the 2010s, consumer brand awareness increased, leading to higher demands for product quality and branding, exemplified by new-style tea brands like Heytea and Nayuki [2] - The 2020s have introduced new demands for cost-performance ratios in tea products, with supply-side expansion through franchising and upgrades in supply chain and R&D [2]

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The Chinese ready-to-drink coffee market has rapidly expanded from 51.6 billion yuan in 2019 to 172.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.3% [1][3] - Despite a low per capita consumption of 22 cups per year compared to mature markets, the lower-tier markets have become the core of growth, driving the number of stores to exceed 225,000 [3] - The industry is witnessing a dual-track development towards "cost-effective mass-market" and "high-end boutique" coffee due to Yunnan's premiumization policies [1][3] Group 2: Coffee Bean Supply and Production - Yunnan province accounts for over 98% of China's coffee bean production, with major production areas including Pu'er, Baoshan, Lincang, and Dehong [2] - The coffee bean industry in Yunnan faces structural issues such as low profits at the planting end and reliance on international futures pricing [2] - In 2023, Yunnan's coffee production reached 143,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, following a recovery from a decline due to global oversupply and quality fluctuations [2] Group 3: Import Dependency and Global Market Dynamics - China relies on imports for approximately 51% of its coffee beans, with Brazil being the largest source, accounting for 39% of import volume and 30% of import value [1] - The global coffee bean market is dominated by Arabica (60%-70% of production) and Robusta (35%), with major producers being Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, which together account for about 56% of global production [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the growth potential of Mixue Ice City, focusing on its business model, market expansion, and the competitive landscape within the beverage industry, particularly in the context of the current market valuation and growth opportunities [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current market for ready-to-drink beverages is divided into packaged and freshly made drinks, with the latter experiencing significant growth due to consumer demand for freshness and social engagement [6][7]. - Freshly made beverages have increased their market share from 24% in 2019 to nearly 40% currently, with projections suggesting it could reach 50% by 2028 [8][10]. Group 2: Growth Potential of Mixue Ice City - The potential for Mixue Ice City to expand its store count is significant, with estimates suggesting a possible increase to 57,000 to 61,000 stores across China, representing a 50%-60% growth from current levels [10][14]. - The analysis indicates that the brand's growth will be driven by capturing market share from other beverage brands, particularly local non-chain tea shops, as well as expanding into rural areas where competition is less intense [16][24]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has intensified due to a price war among beverage brands, leading to a reduction in average product prices from 15-20 RMB to 10-15 RMB [18][20]. - Mixue Ice City has maintained a low closure rate of 3.1% in 2024, allowing it to capitalize on the market share vacated by struggling competitors [21]. Group 4: Expansion into Rural Markets - Mixue Ice City has begun expanding into rural areas, with over 4,900 stores established in towns by the end of 2024, and plans to increase this number significantly in the coming years [23][24]. - The brand's pricing strategy aligns well with rural consumer spending power, making it well-positioned to dominate in these markets [24][25]. Group 5: Challenges for Lucky Coffee - The coffee brand Lucky Coffee, acquired by Mixue, has struggled to gain traction, primarily due to its focus on lower-tier markets and a lack of brand recognition compared to competitors like Luckin Coffee [29][32]. - Lucky Coffee's average monthly revenue is only 60% of that of Mixue Ice City, and its profitability is hindered by higher costs associated with coffee bean procurement [39][40]. - The potential for Lucky Coffee to expand is limited, with estimates suggesting it could reach around 9,400 stores, but this is contingent on developing coffee consumption habits in lower-tier markets [41][43].

Core Insights - The article highlights the shift in the ready-to-drink beverage industry from rapid growth to a more refined phase, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to a market where incremental growth is diminishing and to focus on enhancing customer acquisition strategies [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The penetration rate of ready-to-drink beverages has reached 58% as of February 2025, remaining stable compared to three years ago [1]. - The industry is witnessing a trend where "having a thousand stores" has become a standard benchmark for brands [1]. - The article identifies a "Matthew Effect" where leading brands like Mixue Ice City and Bawang Tea Sister excel in both penetration and repurchase rates, reinforcing their market dominance [1]. Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - Three key consumer segments are identified for ready-to-drink beverages: 1. Heavy consumers contribute 61% of value, with brands needing to understand barriers to purchase, such as brand awareness and price sensitivity [4]. 2. O2O channel consumers can add an incremental 28% to brand reach, highlighting the importance of digital channels for brand exposure [6]. 3. Potential consumers, particularly urban blue-collar workers and small-town middle-aged individuals, show lower penetration but significant consumption potential, with a possible 39% increase in penetration through social sharing [10][15]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - For sustained growth, brands must focus on: 1. Diagnosing consumer assets for refined operations [11]. 2. Identifying demand opportunities across various consumption scenarios [11]. 3. Leveraging instant retail to support digital transformation and reshape the value chain [11].

Core Insights - The report by Lisi Strategic Consulting focuses on the outbound market for ready-to-drink beverages, particularly in Southeast Asia, highlighting the rapid growth of Chinese tea and coffee brands since 2017 [1] Ready-to-Drink Tea Segment - The outbound expansion of Chinese tea brands began in 1999 with ShareTea in Malaysia, and the period from 2017 to 2021 is identified as a golden era for these brands [2] - Key players like Heytea, Mixue Ice City, and Bawang Tea have accelerated their overseas presence, with Mixue Ice City having over 1,300 stores in Vietnam and over 2,600 in Indonesia [2] - Southeast Asia is seen as the best initial market for Chinese tea brands due to geographical advantages and cultural similarities, although market entry strategies vary by brand [2] - The report predicts a competitive era for Chinese tea brands globally, with significant challenges in adapting to diverse Southeast Asian markets [3] - Five major predictions for the future of the Southeast Asian tea market include the decline of Taiwanese milk tea, the rise of Chinese tea brands, and the importance of continuous product innovation [3][4] Ready-to-Drink Coffee Segment - Unlike tea, coffee is considered a foreign product in China, making the competitive landscape in Southeast Asia more complex for Chinese coffee brands [5] - The report identifies Luckin Coffee and Kudi as the leading Chinese coffee brands currently entering the Southeast Asian market [5] - Southeast Asia is viewed as a critical market for Chinese coffee brands, not only for its size but also as a testing ground for global brand strategies [5] - The report highlights the unique characteristics of coffee markets in different Southeast Asian countries, indicating that local market dynamics mirror those in China [6] - Opportunities for Chinese coffee brands include the potential in the economy segment, faster market differentiation in the high-end segment, and diverse store model innovations [7]

2 0 2 5年春节作为中国首个"非遗年"，八天的黄金假期叠加消费券政策，带动了消费者乐享 假日的情绪。凯度消费者指数家外消费样组的最新研究显示， 2 0 2 5年春节期间（截至到 2 0 2 5年2月17日的过去8周）中国现制饮品市场持稳步增长，消费者触及数（CRP）对比 去年同期增长5%。 从饮用场景看， 店内堂食 依然是春节期间最主流的场景。对比非春节期间*，消费者偏好 在购物时喝现制饮品。同时，研究发现消费者在春节期间对现制茶饮的需求较平日也有明 显提升，展现出节日消费的独特属性。 消费者在场景和饮用需求上的多元化特征，为现制 饮品提供了新的产品与场景机会。 为赋能品牌更好地掌握现制饮品市场的消费者需求动态 ，凯度消费者指数首次发布现制饮 品市场品牌足迹榜单。 通过持续追踪消费者的现制饮品购买行为，以独家监测指标——消 费者触及数（CRP）来评估品牌表现。 前十榜单中，茶饮品牌占据大半席位，可见茶饮市场在春节期间的主导地位显著。其中， 蜜雪冰城、霸王茶姬 和 瑞幸咖啡 分列前三。 我们发现，进入榜单的品牌，无论茶饮品牌还是咖啡品牌，都有一个共性——即 主要通过 渗透率的提升拉动增长 。其中，霸王茶姬、 ...