首次覆盖: 聚焦份额增长，短期利润率承压 瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY.OO) 瑞幸咖啡 2025Q3 业绩点评 本报告导读： 外卖大战加速行业资源整合，公司聚焦增长、持续关注份额，稳步扩大门店规模， 为长期发展打下坚实基础。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 24903 | 34475 | 50340 | 59811 | 66341 | | (+/-)% | 87.34% | 38.44% | 46.02% | 18.82% | 10.92% | | 毛利润 | 14011 | 20360 | 30186 | 35267 | 39106 | | 净利润 | 2848 | 2932 | 3853 | 4713 | 5320 | | (+/-)% | 483.30% | 2.94% | 31.44% | 22.30% | 12.90% | | PE | 20.00 | 21.56 | 17.65 | 15.64 | 20.00 | | PS ...

Core Insights - The coffee beverage market in China is expected to reach nearly 130 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing consumer acceptance and local product trends [1][2] - Despite market growth, coffee brands face challenges such as high costs, price pressures, product homogenization, and intensified competition from fast-food chains and convenience stores [1][2] Market Overview - The coffee market is experiencing steady growth, with independent brand stores accounting for over 60% of the total [2][6] - By September 2025, the number of coffee stores in China is projected to exceed 260,000, marking a 19.9% year-on-year increase [2] - The market is entering a deeper competitive phase, with a significant number of new coffee-related enterprises registered [2] Regional Distribution - The top three regions for coffee store numbers are East China (35.9%), South China (23.2%), and Southwest China (14.4%) [4] - Regions with less than 10% market share, such as Central and Northern China, are experiencing rapid growth, with store numbers increasing by over 20% year-on-year [4] Brand Dynamics - Independent brands are projected to account for 60.5% of coffee stores by 2025, while chain brands will make up nearly 40% [6] - Major chain brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi Coffee are rapidly expanding, with store counts reaching 26,000 and 13,000 respectively [8] Product Segmentation - The coffee beverage category can be divided into commercial coffee and specialty coffee, with specialty coffee stores making up nearly 30% of the total [11] - Specialty coffee brands are facing challenges from low-priced commercial brands and rising operational costs [11] Consumer Trends - The coffee market is seeing a shift towards product diversification, with brands increasingly launching tea products to attract consumers [15][16] - Downstream markets, particularly in third-tier cities, are becoming strategic battlegrounds for coffee brands, with significant growth potential [18] Pricing and Competition - The average consumer spending on coffee has decreased from 41 yuan in September 2023 to 26 yuan in September 2025, driven by price wars among brands [20] - The proportion of coffee stores with average spending below 15 yuan has increased from 29.8% to 36.9% [20] Conclusion - The coffee beverage sector is experiencing growth alongside challenges such as high costs and price competition, with future opportunities in the release of consumer potential in lower-tier markets and advancements in local supply chains [22]

Core Insights - The coffee beverage market in China is expected to reach nearly 130 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing consumer acceptance and local product trends [1][2] - Despite market growth, coffee brands face challenges such as high costs, price pressures, and severe product homogenization, leading to decreased consumer loyalty [1][2] - The competitive landscape is intensifying with fast-food chains, tea brands, and convenience stores entering the coffee market [1] Market Growth and Brand Dynamics - The coffee market continues to grow, with the number of coffee shops exceeding 260,000 by September 2025, marking a 19.9% year-on-year increase [2] - Independent coffee shops account for over 60.5% of the total coffee shop count, indicating a strong presence of non-chain brands [6] - Major chain brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi Coffee are rapidly expanding, with store counts reaching 26,000 and 13,000 respectively [8] Regional Distribution - Eastern, Southern, and Southwestern China lead in coffee shop numbers, accounting for 35.9%, 23.2%, and 14.4% respectively [4] - Regions with less than 10% market share, such as Central and Northern China, are experiencing rapid growth, with all showing over 20% year-on-year increases [4] Consumer Trends and Product Offerings - The coffee beverage segment is diversifying, with a significant increase in ready-to-drink options and a growing trend towards tea products [15][16] - The average consumer spending on coffee has decreased from 41 yuan in September 2023 to 26 yuan in September 2025, influenced by price wars and competition from delivery platforms [20] Challenges for Specialty Coffee Brands - Specialty coffee brands face challenges from low-cost competition and rising operational costs, leading to a constrained profit margin [11] - Strategies to counter these challenges include launching affordable sub-brands, utilizing small store models, and expanding product offerings beyond coffee [12] Strategic Focus on Lower-Tier Markets - Lower-tier cities are becoming critical for coffee brands, with significant growth in store numbers in these areas [18] - Brands like Luckin Coffee and Rong Xiao Qiao are heavily investing in these markets, with a high percentage of their stores located in third-tier cities and below [18] Conclusion - The coffee beverage sector is experiencing growth alongside challenges such as high costs and intense competition, with opportunities emerging from lower-tier markets and supply chain localization [22]

Core Insights - Coffee consumption is rapidly rising in China, with the overall coffee market potential exceeding 1 trillion yuan, driven by various segments including instant, ready-to-drink, and freshly brewed coffee [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Chinese coffee market is projected to reach 12.5% from 2022 to 2025, with freshly brewed coffee experiencing a remarkable growth rate of 21.56%, significantly higher than the overall market [1] - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu are witnessing high coffee consumption, indicating a substantial growth opportunity as current consumption levels in mainland China remain below those of developed countries [1] Consumer Trends - The evolution of coffee consumption in China can be categorized into three stages: initial perception as a trendy beverage, the emergence of coffee shops as social spaces, and the current focus on product experience [2] - The proportion of consumers choosing freshly brewed coffee as their first cup has increased from 30% to 39% in 2023, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [5][6] - Most coffee consumers in China have developed a habit of drinking coffee 3-5 times a week, with consumption times expanding beyond mornings to include evenings [6] Expanding Consumption Scenarios - Coffee consumption scenarios are diversifying beyond traditional settings like homes and offices to include outdoor environments such as high-speed trains and during commutes [9] - The four main consumption scenarios identified are formal occasions, leisure time, fitness, and self-discipline, with a notable increase in coffee consumption during business meetings [9] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The Chinese coffee market is characterized by growth and maturity, with high-frequency consumption patterns emerging, leading to new opportunities in instant, ready-to-drink, and specialty coffee segments [11] - Small brands face significant challenges in a rapidly changing retail landscape, where online sales require advanced operational capabilities and traditional retail channels impose high entry costs [12] - The competitive environment is intensifying, with price wars and the need for innovative supply chains becoming critical for brand survival [12] Future Outlook - The coffee industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with evolving consumer preferences creating both opportunities and challenges for brands [14] - Brands are exploring product innovation, packaging upgrades, and supply chain enhancements to navigate the competitive landscape and meet changing consumer demands [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth potential for the coffee industry in China, with a projected market size of nearly 250 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% over the next four years [5][11]. Core Insights - The Chinese coffee market is rapidly expanding, with a significant increase in both market size and consumer base, indicating ample room for growth [5][11]. - The report highlights the shift in consumer behavior, with coffee becoming a daily beverage choice, particularly among younger demographics and in lower-tier cities [15][33]. - The coffee consumption per capita in China remains low compared to mature markets, suggesting a substantial growth opportunity as consumer habits evolve [11][13]. Market Space - The coffee market in China is categorized into three segments: freshly brewed coffee, ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee, and retail coffee, with the market size expected to grow from 246.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 459.5 billion yuan by 2028 [5]. - The number of consumers drinking freshly brewed coffee is projected to increase from 40 million in 2018 to 260 million by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 20% [5][8]. - The report notes that the penetration rate of freshly brewed coffee consumers is significantly lower than that of tea drinkers, indicating a potential for market expansion [8][11]. Driving Factors - The growth of the coffee market is driven by an expanding consumer base and diversified demand, supported by innovations in supply chain and business models [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of creating a multi-layered product matrix to foster consumer dependency and high repurchase rates [15][16]. Industry Trends - The report discusses the rising prices of raw materials due to adverse weather conditions affecting major coffee-producing countries, which has led to a significant increase in international coffee prices [18]. - It highlights the trend of Chinese coffee brands establishing a full supply chain from cultivation to retail, enhancing their control over quality and costs [18][21]. - The report also notes the increasing importance of health-conscious products and the integration of coffee with other beverages to lower consumer barriers [33][36]. Market Development Trends - The report identifies a dual drive towards beverage and health-oriented coffee products, which are more appealing to a broader audience [33]. - It discusses the importance of digitalization in enhancing operational efficiency and customer engagement through personalized marketing strategies [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after hitting a low in July, U.S. C-type coffee futures prices have risen significantly, with a 40% increase over two months, impacting the retail coffee market [1][2] - The recent surge in coffee futures is attributed to adverse weather conditions in Brazil, a major coffee-producing country, which has led to reduced production expectations [2][4] - The price of U.S. C-type coffee futures reached a historical high of over 430 cents per pound in February 2025, before dropping to 271.09 cents in July, and then rebounding to 424 cents by mid-September [2] Group 2 - The increase in coffee futures prices has been transmitted to the spot market, with retail coffee bean prices also rising, although the impact on ready-to-drink coffee products remains limited due to cost structure [4][5] - Some coffee brands have already raised their prices by approximately 5%, while others have experienced price increases of 30% for certain products [4][5] - Despite rising coffee bean prices, low-priced coffee options like 9.9 yuan coffee remain available, as the overall cost impact on ready-to-drink products is not yet significant [5]

Group 1 - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage industry has entered a high growth phase, with a market size of 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, expected to grow to 627.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 22.5% from 2018 to 2023 [1] - The two core segments of the ready-to-drink beverage market are ready-to-drink tea and coffee, with market sizes of 258.5 billion yuan and 172.1 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 50.0% and 33.3% of the market respectively [1] - The ready-to-drink tea market is the largest segment, while the ready-to-drink coffee market is experiencing the fastest growth [1] Group 2 - The ready-to-drink tea segment has undergone three development stages, driven by multiple factors [2] - The modern milk tea originated in Taiwan in 1987, with the introduction of pearl milk tea in the 1990s leading to its popularity in coastal cities [2] - The 21st century saw the establishment of brands like Street Guest and Underground Rail, marking the beginning of large-scale development in the industry [2] - In the 2010s, consumer brand awareness increased, leading to higher demands for product quality and branding, exemplified by new-style tea brands like Heytea and Nayuki [2] - The 2020s have introduced new demands for cost-performance ratios in tea products, with supply-side expansion through franchising and upgrades in supply chain and R&D [2]

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The Chinese ready-to-drink coffee market has rapidly expanded from 51.6 billion yuan in 2019 to 172.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.3% [1][3] - Despite a low per capita consumption of 22 cups per year compared to mature markets, the lower-tier markets have become the core of growth, driving the number of stores to exceed 225,000 [3] - The industry is witnessing a dual-track development towards "cost-effective mass-market" and "high-end boutique" coffee due to Yunnan's premiumization policies [1][3] Group 2: Coffee Bean Supply and Production - Yunnan province accounts for over 98% of China's coffee bean production, with major production areas including Pu'er, Baoshan, Lincang, and Dehong [2] - The coffee bean industry in Yunnan faces structural issues such as low profits at the planting end and reliance on international futures pricing [2] - In 2023, Yunnan's coffee production reached 143,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, following a recovery from a decline due to global oversupply and quality fluctuations [2] Group 3: Import Dependency and Global Market Dynamics - China relies on imports for approximately 51% of its coffee beans, with Brazil being the largest source, accounting for 39% of import volume and 30% of import value [1] - The global coffee bean market is dominated by Arabica (60%-70% of production) and Robusta (35%), with major producers being Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, which together account for about 56% of global production [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the growth potential of Mixue Ice City, focusing on its business model, market expansion, and the competitive landscape within the beverage industry, particularly in the context of the current market valuation and growth opportunities [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current market for ready-to-drink beverages is divided into packaged and freshly made drinks, with the latter experiencing significant growth due to consumer demand for freshness and social engagement [6][7]. - Freshly made beverages have increased their market share from 24% in 2019 to nearly 40% currently, with projections suggesting it could reach 50% by 2028 [8][10]. Group 2: Growth Potential of Mixue Ice City - The potential for Mixue Ice City to expand its store count is significant, with estimates suggesting a possible increase to 57,000 to 61,000 stores across China, representing a 50%-60% growth from current levels [10][14]. - The analysis indicates that the brand's growth will be driven by capturing market share from other beverage brands, particularly local non-chain tea shops, as well as expanding into rural areas where competition is less intense [16][24]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has intensified due to a price war among beverage brands, leading to a reduction in average product prices from 15-20 RMB to 10-15 RMB [18][20]. - Mixue Ice City has maintained a low closure rate of 3.1% in 2024, allowing it to capitalize on the market share vacated by struggling competitors [21]. Group 4: Expansion into Rural Markets - Mixue Ice City has begun expanding into rural areas, with over 4,900 stores established in towns by the end of 2024, and plans to increase this number significantly in the coming years [23][24]. - The brand's pricing strategy aligns well with rural consumer spending power, making it well-positioned to dominate in these markets [24][25]. Group 5: Challenges for Lucky Coffee - The coffee brand Lucky Coffee, acquired by Mixue, has struggled to gain traction, primarily due to its focus on lower-tier markets and a lack of brand recognition compared to competitors like Luckin Coffee [29][32]. - Lucky Coffee's average monthly revenue is only 60% of that of Mixue Ice City, and its profitability is hindered by higher costs associated with coffee bean procurement [39][40]. - The potential for Lucky Coffee to expand is limited, with estimates suggesting it could reach around 9,400 stores, but this is contingent on developing coffee consumption habits in lower-tier markets [41][43].

Core Insights - The article highlights the shift in the ready-to-drink beverage industry from rapid growth to a more refined phase, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to a market where incremental growth is diminishing and to focus on enhancing customer acquisition strategies [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The penetration rate of ready-to-drink beverages has reached 58% as of February 2025, remaining stable compared to three years ago [1]. - The industry is witnessing a trend where "having a thousand stores" has become a standard benchmark for brands [1]. - The article identifies a "Matthew Effect" where leading brands like Mixue Ice City and Bawang Tea Sister excel in both penetration and repurchase rates, reinforcing their market dominance [1]. Group 2: Consumer Segmentation - Three key consumer segments are identified for ready-to-drink beverages: 1. Heavy consumers contribute 61% of value, with brands needing to understand barriers to purchase, such as brand awareness and price sensitivity [4]. 2. O2O channel consumers can add an incremental 28% to brand reach, highlighting the importance of digital channels for brand exposure [6]. 3. Potential consumers, particularly urban blue-collar workers and small-town middle-aged individuals, show lower penetration but significant consumption potential, with a possible 39% increase in penetration through social sharing [10][15]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - For sustained growth, brands must focus on: 1. Diagnosing consumer assets for refined operations [11]. 2. Identifying demand opportunities across various consumption scenarios [11]. 3. Leveraging instant retail to support digital transformation and reshape the value chain [11].