1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sharp rise in coking coal 2601 today is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, the market will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. - The July non - farm payroll data indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [15][16]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the macro - environment. A low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - Alumina has high volatility, and a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a comprehensive profitability rate of nearly 60%. High daily hot metal production supports the demand for coking coal, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4]. - Outlook: If the over - production verification of coal mines is strictly implemented, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and if demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or the hot metal production of steel mills peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4]. 3.2 A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened higher in the morning, then冲高回落, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded in the afternoon and closed with a red doji [8]. - Driving factor: The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares [7]. - Operation strategy: In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. 3.3 Gold - Driving factor: The July non - farm payroll data is significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, and the probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold [11]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - Fundamental support: The improvement of steel mill profitability has maintained a high level of hot metal production, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy [15]. 3.5 Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20]. - Driving factor: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19]. - Operation strategy: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19]. 3.6 Alumina - Market characteristic: It has high volatility due to continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm [22]. - Event: EGA condemned the Guinea government for revoking the GAC mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy on dips [22].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/07 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 焦煤回调结束，可以继续多吗？ 今日焦煤2601连续第三日大涨，引发市场高度关注。此次大涨并非偶然，而是由多因素共同作用。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，部分产地煤矿因井下事故、安全检查及环保稽查等影响产量。如山西吕梁等地部分煤矿复 产缓慢，蒙煤进口受口岸闭关影响，供应收紧。需求层面，钢铁行业盈利佳，钢厂综合盈利率近60%，铁 水日均产量高位，对焦煤需求形成有力支撑，焦化企业和钢厂补库需求进一步推高价格。 政策上，新版《矿产资源法》施行，工信部反内卷工作方案预期，以及行业协会对焦炭价格的上调，也带 动了焦煤价格。 展望后续，若煤矿超产核查严格执行，供应端收缩预期延续，需求端维持现状，焦煤2601价格有望保持强 势。不过，若蒙煤进口大幅增加，或钢厂铁水产量见顶回落，其上涨也将承压。投资者需紧密关注基本面 和政策 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/06 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 今日焦煤2601期货大涨继续昨日的大涨，一度涨停板，引发市场高度关注。此次大涨并非偶然，而是由多 因素共同作用。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，部分产地煤矿因井下事故、安全检查及环保稽查等影响产量。如山西吕梁等地部分煤矿复 产缓慢，蒙煤进口受口岸闭关影响，供应收紧。需求层面，钢铁行业盈利佳，钢厂综合盈利率近60%，铁 水日均产量高位，对焦煤需求形成有力支撑，焦化企业和钢厂补库需求进一步推高价格。 政策上，新版《矿产资源法》施行，工信部反内卷工作方案预期，以及行业协会对焦炭价格的上调，也带 动了焦煤价格。 展望后续，若煤矿超产核查严格执行，供应端收缩预期延续，需求端维持现状，焦煤2601价格有望保持强 势。不过，若蒙煤进口大幅增加，或钢厂铁水产量见顶回落，其上涨也将承压。投资者需紧密关注基本面 和政策动态 ，震荡偏多对待。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 futures today is due to multiple factors. If the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues to shrink supply and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, it will mainly show high - level fluctuations [7]. - The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will show small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. - In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. - In the short - term, domestic and foreign orders for glass are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to tightened supply [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%, and the daily average hot metal output is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations also drive up the price of coking coal [4]. A - shares - Policy impact: Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold - Economic data impact: The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it shows small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. Glass - Short - term situation: Domestic and foreign orders are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative factors: Weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].