Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3][4] - A-share margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion, and in the short term, it is mainly in a high-level volatile upward trend [7][8] - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a co - upward trend. Maintain a low - buying strategy [15][16] - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19][20] - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. Maintain a low - buying strategy [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a nearly 60% comprehensive profit rate for steel mills. The daily average pig iron output is at a high level, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4] - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4] - Outlook: If strict production over - inspection is carried out, the supply is expected to continue to shrink. If demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or pig iron output peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4] Stock Index Futures - Market performance: A - share three major indexes opened lower and closed higher, with all closing with mid -阳线. The margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion after ten years [7][8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, it is mainly in a high - level volatile upward trend [7] Gold - Fundamental factors: The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data indicate that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold [11] - Technical analysis: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] Iron Ore - Fundamental support: Steel mills' profitability has improved, pig iron output remains high, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supportive. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industrial chain is in a healthy state [15][16] - Technical analysis: There was a slight adjustment today, and maintain a low - buying strategy [15] Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and factory inventories have significantly declined, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20] - Driving factors: The main driving factor is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19] - Operation suggestion: When it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19] Alumina - Characteristics: As a "mineral with stories", it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and its futures have high long - term volatility [22] - Event: EGA condemned the Guinean government for revoking the GAC mining license [22] - Operation suggestion: Maintain a low - buying strategy [22]

Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of Goldtrust Futures, dated August 6, 2025, and written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, if the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues, and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to stay strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3] - For A - shares, with 1.96 million new accounts opened, a year - on - year increase of 70.5%, it is a positive factor. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6] - For gold, the July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will make a small - scale sideways movement in the short term [10] - For iron ore, with the improvement of steel mill profitability, hot metal production remains high, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industry chain is in a healthy state, showing a resonance upward trend. Technically, after three consecutive days of rising, the strategy is to buy on dips [14][15] - For glass, the supply - demand situation has improved slightly with a significant decline in factory inventory, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver of the recent market is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider buying on stabilization [18][19] - For palm oil, currently in the overseas production area's peak season, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in June, and Reuters survey shows that the inventory may continue to grow in July. The production and inventory pressure in major foreign producing areas still exist, which may limit the upward momentum of the market as time goes on [20] Summary by Directory Hot Focus - Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to a tightening of supply [3] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%. The daily average hot metal production is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [3] - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expectation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's anti - involution work plan, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up the coking coal price [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - New accounts opened in the A - share market reached 1.96 million, a year - on - year increase of 70.5%, which is a positive factor. The short - term operation strategy is a high - level upward fluctuation [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will move sideways in the short term [10] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Fundamental: With the improvement of steel mill profitability, hot metal production remains high, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industry chain is in a healthy state [14][15] - Technical: After three consecutive days of rising, the strategy is to buy on dips [14] Technical Analysis - Glass - Supply - demand: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, with a significant decline in factory inventory, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [18][19] - Market driver: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, buy on stabilization when it pulls back to the short - term support level [18][19] Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - Supply: Currently in the overseas production area's peak season, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in June, and it may continue to grow in July. The production and inventory pressure in major foreign producing areas still exist, which may limit the upward momentum of the market [20]