Market Overview - The futures market shows a bearish sentiment with 22 contracts rising and 57 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The main contracts with significant price increases include Shanghai Silver (+3.92%) and CSI 1000 (+1.98%), while the largest declines were seen in coking coal (-4.98%) and industrial silicon (-4.33%) [5][6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were observed in the CSI 300 (5.595 billion), SSE 50 (2.367 billion), and CSI 1000 (1.091 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from coking coal (-1.509 billion), copper (-1.152 billion), and silver (-0.922 billion), suggesting a withdrawal of funds from these commodities [8] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were recorded for SSE 2512 (+16.89%) and Shanghai Zinc (+12.94%), indicating new capital entering these markets [11] - Significant decreases in open interest were seen in lead (-19.56%) and cotton yarn (-20.81%), suggesting a potential exit of major funds from these contracts [11] Key Events - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for high-quality development and effective market mechanisms during its recent meeting, which may influence economic policies and market conditions [12] - Global iron ore shipments increased to 34.754 million tons, with Australian shipments rising, indicating a potential shift in supply dynamics [13] Commodity Insights - Shanghai Silver remains strong, with prices reaching 10,939 yuan/kg, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, suggesting continued investment demand [20] - Coking coal prices fell to 1,152.5 yuan/ton, with expectations of price stability due to cautious production and pre-holiday inventory adjustments [22] - Industrial silicon prices dropped by 4.33% to 8,610 yuan/ton, facing inventory accumulation pressures despite stable demand from downstream sectors [23]

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 56 contracts rising and 23 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] - Significant price increases were observed in coking coal (+5.84%), coke (+4.24%), and glass (+3.69%), driven by supply and demand dynamics [5][6] - Conversely, commodities like LPG and red dates experienced notable declines, suggesting increased bearish pressure or negative fundamental factors [6] Capital Flow - The highest capital inflows were seen in coking coal (1.163 billion), followed by rapeseed oil (1.008 billion) and 30-year government bonds (462 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - Major capital outflows were recorded in the CSI 300 (-2.448 billion) and Shanghai Composite 50 (-1.230 billion), reflecting a withdrawal of funds from these indices [8] Open Interest Changes - Significant increases in open interest were noted in rapeseed oil (+18.25%) and eggs (+10.72%), suggesting new capital entering these markets and heightened trading activity [10] - Conversely, substantial decreases in open interest were observed in styrene (-15.25%) and crude oil (-18.84%), indicating potential exits of major funds from these commodities [10] Key Events - OPEC+ is set to discuss capacity updates in a meeting scheduled for September 18-19, aiming to establish a mechanism for assessing each member's maximum sustainable oil production capacity [11] - Domestic soybean crushing volumes have rebounded, with the average operating rate of oil mills reaching 64.99%, indicating strong processing activity [12] Future Outlook - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of at least three rate cuts before the end of 2025, which could influence commodity prices positively [16] - The upcoming release of initial jobless claims data is expected to provide further insights into the labor market, which may impact Fed policy decisions [17] Commodity-Specific Insights - The main contract for polysilicon has seen a slight increase, but ongoing inventory pressures and price constraints remain a concern [19] - The glass market is expected to continue its short-term upward trend, with current supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations playing a crucial role [20] - Coking coal prices are anticipated to gradually rise, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing prices and managing supply [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The futures market is experiencing a bullish sentiment with significant trading activity concentrated on rising commodities, particularly polysilicon and coking coal, driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic policies [2][12][21][23]. Market Dynamics - Today's main contracts show 56 contracts rising and 20 contracts falling, indicating a clear bullish sentiment in the market [2]. - The most significant gainers include polysilicon (+8.99%), coking coal (+6.33%), and glass (+4.94%), influenced by supply-demand factors [6]. - The largest outflows were seen in the CSI 300 (-47.04 billion), indicating a notable withdrawal of funds from these contracts [8]. Fund Flows - The top inflow commodities were polysilicon (1.901 billion), rubber (901 million), and palm oil (556 million), attracting substantial main funds [8]. - The largest outflows were from the CSI 300, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [8]. Position Changes - Significant increases in positions were noted in polysilicon (+26.78%) and rubber (+25.85%), suggesting new funds entering the market [10]. - Conversely, notable decreases were observed in crude oil (-8.68%) and CSI 1000 (-9.46%), indicating potential fund withdrawals [10]. Key Events - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction, with coking coal contracts experiencing a surge due to market enthusiasm surrounding potential policy announcements [12][23]. - The upcoming policies aimed at expanding service consumption are expected to enhance high-quality service supply, which may impact related sectors positively [14]. Industry Insights - In August, China's polysilicon production reached 128,900 tons, a 22.6% increase from July, while silicon wafer production was 53.4 GW, reflecting a robust supply chain [14]. - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize due to limited supply and increased demand as the market anticipates policy implementations [23]. - The glass market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a slight increase in production and a focus on inventory reduction, although demand remains weak [25].

Report Overview - The report provides investment analysis and forecasts for coking coal and coke futures on August 27, 2025 [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - For coking coal 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating, with a slightly bullish bias", and the overall view is "oscillating". The coking coal market has a mix of long and short factors, and the futures' main contract is oscillating within a range [1][5]. - For coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating, with a slightly bullish bias", and the overall view is "oscillating". In the medium and long term, coke may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall [1][6]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly bullish, medium - term view is slightly bullish, and the reference view is oscillating [5]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of coking coal have no significant changes. Over - production inspections and heavy rainfall in Shanxi still suppress supply. Meanwhile, environmental protection restrictions on coking plants and steel mills before the September 3rd parade reduce short - term demand. Although the impact of the "anti - involution" has been released, it may still bring positive news in the future, making the short - selling atmosphere cautious [5]. Coke (J) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly bullish, medium - term view is slightly bullish, and the reference view is oscillating [6]. - **Core Logic**: The intensified long - short divergence in the coking coal market has led to high - level oscillating consolidation of coke futures. The futures market has entered the verification stage from the previous strong cost - side expectation. Considering the possible subsequent policies related to "anti - involution" in the coal industry, the cost - side news is expected to form positive support, and coke may be easy to rise and hard to fall in the medium and long term [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are mainly oscillatory, with an intraday tendency of being oscillatory and slightly bullish and a medium - term tendency of being oscillatory and slightly bullish [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Jiao Coal 2601: short - term is range - bound and oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory and slightly bullish, intraday is oscillatory and slightly bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillation due to increased wait - and - see sentiment [1] - Coke 2601: short - term is range - bound and oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory and slightly bullish, intraday is oscillatory and slightly bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillation due to production - limit factors [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - On August 21, the main contract of Jiao Coal closed at 1147 points, with an intraday decline of 1.50%. The main contract's open interest was 699,300 lots, an increase of 634 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1190 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [5] - Before the 93 military parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production - limit pressure, causing short - term demand for Jiao Coal to be under pressure and increasing market divergence. However, through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation of Jiao Coal is expected to gradually ease, and the price center still has an upward basis in the medium - to - long term [5] 3.2.2 Coke (J) - The latest quotation of the Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [6] - Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual supply of domestic coking coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. After a phase of adjustment, coke futures prices may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the JM2601 contract of coking coal, in the short - term, it is in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it shows an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. The overall view is that it oscillates due to the intertwining of multiple and short factors [1][5]. - For the J2601 contract of coke, in the short - term, it is in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it shows an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. The overall view is that it oscillates and operates at a high level due to increased production - limit disturbances [1][7]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - **Core Logic**: Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production - limit pressure, causing short - term demand for coking coal to be under pressure and increasing market divergence. However, through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation of coking coal is expected to gradually ease, and the price center still has an upward basis in the long - term [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Market Information**: On August 20, the main contract of coke closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.33%. The position of the main contract was 39,100 lots, an increase of 644 lots compared with the previous trading day. The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the supply of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual supply of domestic coking coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. After a periodic adjustment, the futures price of coke may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Overall Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601 are mainly in the range of "oscillation", with intraday views being "oscillation on the stronger side" [1][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - For Jiao Coal, the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the "anti - involution" campaign is set by the Central Financial and Economic Commission and is actively responded to by multiple industries. The oversupply situation in the Jiao Coal market may gradually improve through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, and the price center has an upward basis in the medium - to - long term [5] - For Coke, the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply and demand of Coke are both increasing, and the fundamentals are stable. Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of coking coal. The market expectation has improved, and the futures price of Coke is more likely to rise than to fall [6] Group 3: Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - Intraday view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Medium - term view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Reference view: Oscillation. The industry's supply - demand relationship is expected to gradually balance through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, but the risk lies in the insufficient implementation of policies [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Medium - term view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Reference view: Oscillation. The market expectation has improved due to supply - side news disturbances, and the futures price is easy to rise, with the main negative factor being the insufficient reduction in coking coal supply [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601, the short - term view is "interval oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation with a slightly upward trend", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slightly upward trend", with an overall reference view of "oscillation" [1]. - Jiao Coal: Due to the interplay of multiple and bearish factors, it is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the short - term, and the key lies in the long - term and obvious impact of anti - involution rectification on Jiao Coal supply [1][5]. - Coke: After the sixth round of price increase was implemented, the spot market remains optimistic. With the supply of coking coal at the cost end being disturbed, it is expected that the main contract of coke will maintain interval oscillation in the near future [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1190.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.48%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1167 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution policies in the coal industry are being implemented one after another. As the futures price returns to a high level, market games increase. The short - term trend is interval oscillation [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the warehouse - receipt price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.23% [7]. - **Market Situation**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented this week, and the optimistic atmosphere in the spot market continues. The supply and demand of coke are basically stable recently, and the supply of coking coal at the cost end is disturbed. The futures price has pulled back at the 1750 yuan/ton level. It is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the near future [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sharp rise in coking coal 2601 today is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, the market will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. - The July non - farm payroll data indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [15][16]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the macro - environment. A low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - Alumina has high volatility, and a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a comprehensive profitability rate of nearly 60%. High daily hot metal production supports the demand for coking coal, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4]. - Outlook: If the over - production verification of coal mines is strictly implemented, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and if demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or the hot metal production of steel mills peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4]. 3.2 A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened higher in the morning, then冲高回落, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded in the afternoon and closed with a red doji [8]. - Driving factor: The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares [7]. - Operation strategy: In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. 3.3 Gold - Driving factor: The July non - farm payroll data is significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, and the probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold [11]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - Fundamental support: The improvement of steel mill profitability has maintained a high level of hot metal production, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy [15]. 3.5 Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20]. - Driving factor: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19]. - Operation strategy: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19]. 3.6 Alumina - Market characteristic: It has high volatility due to continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm [22]. - Event: EGA condemned the Guinea government for revoking the GAC mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy on dips [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3][4] - A-share margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion, and in the short term, it is mainly in a high-level volatile upward trend [7][8] - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a co - upward trend. Maintain a low - buying strategy [15][16] - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19][20] - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. Maintain a low - buying strategy [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a nearly 60% comprehensive profit rate for steel mills. The daily average pig iron output is at a high level, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4] - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4] - Outlook: If strict production over - inspection is carried out, the supply is expected to continue to shrink. If demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or pig iron output peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4] Stock Index Futures - Market performance: A - share three major indexes opened lower and closed higher, with all closing with mid -阳线. The margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion after ten years [7][8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, it is mainly in a high - level volatile upward trend [7] Gold - Fundamental factors: The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data indicate that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold [11] - Technical analysis: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term sideways consolidation [11] Iron Ore - Fundamental support: Steel mills' profitability has improved, pig iron output remains high, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supportive. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industrial chain is in a healthy state [15][16] - Technical analysis: There was a slight adjustment today, and maintain a low - buying strategy [15] Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and factory inventories have significantly declined, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20] - Driving factors: The main driving factor is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19] - Operation suggestion: When it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider a low - buying strategy after stabilization [19] Alumina - Characteristics: As a "mineral with stories", it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and its futures have high long - term volatility [22] - Event: EGA condemned the Guinean government for revoking the GAC mining license [22] - Operation suggestion: Maintain a low - buying strategy [22]