Group 1 - The domestic passenger car market experienced a retail volume of approximately 2.261 million units in December 2025, marking a 14% year-on-year decline, the first drop in December sales in four years [1] - The decline in December 2025 sales is attributed to policy adjustments regarding vehicle replacement and trade-in subsidies, leading to increased consumer hesitation [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 59.1% in December 2025, an increase of 9.6 percentage points compared to December 2024, indicating a significant growth trend [1][2] Group 2 - In December 2025, the penetration rates for NEVs were 80.9% for domestic brands, 39.1% for luxury brands, and 8.2% for mainstream joint venture brands, showing substantial growth of around 20 percentage points for both domestic and luxury brands compared to January 2025 [2] - The total retail sales of NEVs in 2025 reached 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with an overall penetration rate of 53.3% [2] - NEV exports approached half of total passenger car exports, with 273,000 NEVs exported in December 2025, representing a 119.8% year-on-year increase [2][3] Group 3 - The overall domestic passenger car market for 2025 recorded a cumulative retail volume of approximately 23.744 million units, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year growth, the lowest growth rate in the past three years [4] - The decline in sales during the fourth quarter of 2025 is attributed to the temporary delay in consumer purchases due to the phased reduction of trade-in and scrappage policies [4] - The 2026 market is expected to stabilize with early implementation of trade-in policies, potentially leading to a strong start in January 2026 [4][5] Group 4 - The 2026 market is anticipated to show a "U-shaped" trend with overall sales expected to remain flat compared to 2025, while exports are projected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% [5] - The market for high-end NEVs and fuel vehicles, particularly those priced above 200,000 yuan, is expected to perform well in 2026 [5] - Price competition will remain a critical factor in the automotive market in 2026, with cautious expectations for the growth of pure electric vehicle exports [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market experienced a significant decline in December 2025, with retail sales dropping to 2.261 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%, marking the third consecutive month of sales decline since October 2025 [2] - The overall retail sales for the year reached 23.744 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, slightly above the previous forecast of 2% [2] Market Performance - December sales were particularly weak in the fuel vehicle segment, which saw a decline of 30%. Although the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector did not experience a drop, its growth significantly slowed, with NEV retail sales at 1.337 million units, a year-on-year increase of only 2.6% [3] - The penetration rate of NEVs surpassed 50% for the first time in 2025, reaching 54%, with December's penetration rate at 59.1%, an increase of 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Brand Analysis - In December, the penetration rate of NEVs among domestic brands was 80.9%, while luxury brands had a penetration rate of 39.1%, and mainstream joint venture brands only reached 8.2% [4] - The market share of domestic brands continued to grow, reaching 65% for the year, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year. In December, domestic brand retail sales were 1.46 million units, down 11% year-on-year [5] Export Performance - The export segment showed strong growth, with December passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) at 588,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. For the entire year, exports totaled 5.739 million units, up 19.7% [5] Future Outlook - Despite the recent sales decline, there are positive factors such as the introduction of new models and a reduction in aggressive price cuts. The forecast for January 2026 anticipates a slight year-on-year sales increase, with total market sales projected at approximately 35.5 million units for the year, a 2% increase [6]

Core Insights - The retail sales of passenger cars in December 2025 reached 2.3 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 13% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [1][7] - Cumulative retail sales for the year 2025 amounted to 23.78 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4% [1][7] - The wholesale growth rate for passenger cars in 2025 is projected at 9%, with a 25% growth rate for new energy vehicles, aligning with the growth expectations set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Retail Market Analysis - In December, the retail sales of fuel vehicles decreased by 30% year-on-year, while pure electric vehicle sales grew by 3% and range-extended vehicles increased by 19% [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in December reached 59%, indicating a significant shift towards a "new energy-dominated" market phase [2] - The cumulative export of self-owned fuel passenger vehicles in 2025 was 2.87 million units, down 7%, while self-owned new energy vehicle exports surged by 139% to 2.04 million units [2] Wholesale Market Trends - In December, the wholesale volume of passenger cars was 2.79 million units, down 9% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, marking a rare decline for December [10][12] - The cumulative wholesale volume for the year reached 29.55 million units, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [12] - The production of passenger cars in December was 2.79 million units, a decrease of 5% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [14] Production Insights - The production of passenger cars in December was 2.79 million units, which is 140,000 units lower than the historical peak of 2.93 million units in December 2024 [13][14] - The overall production for the year 2025 reached 29.61 million units, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 10% [14] Export Performance - In December, the export of passenger cars (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 590,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% but a month-on-month decline of 2% [16] - The cumulative export for the year reached 5.74 million units, showing a 20% year-on-year growth [16] Inventory Dynamics - In December, the overall inventory of passenger cars decreased by 60,000 units, with a total inventory growth of 150,000 units for the year [19] - The inventory reduction in December was a result of proactive measures by manufacturers, contrasting with the previous year's inventory decline driven by retail demand [19] Promotional Strategies - The promotional intensity for new energy vehicles in December reached 10.1%, reflecting a stable promotional environment [22] - Traditional fuel vehicles maintained a promotional level of 24.3%, while luxury vehicles saw promotions rise to 29.1% [26][30] - The promotional pressure for conventional fuel and hybrid vehicles remained low, while new energy vehicle promotions were more aggressive [32]