Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: March 15, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Fan Yuanyuan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has tightened the global energy market, driving up overseas coal prices. However, in the short term, domestic coal prices are still weak due to the off - season demand. The price difference between imported coal and domestic coal is significantly inverted. The geopolitical event may affect the domestic coal market through the chain of "oil and gas and freight → international coal prices and trade → domestic supply and demand". The import disruption is expected to support domestic coal prices during the off - season, limiting the downward adjustment space of domestic coal prices. - In the long - term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue. The demand for coal in the power system will peak and gradually decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. With policy - dominated supply, the upward elasticity of coal supply is limited, and the price center will shift upwards. Coal prices will operate between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long run, and the long - term agreement price still has support [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data of Thermal Coal Price - Domestic coal prices continue to decline, while overseas coal prices are strong. As of March 13, 2026, the price of Yulin 5800 kcal index was 592.0 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Ordos 5500 kcal index was 526.0 yuan/ton, down 11.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Datong 5500 kcal index was 585.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of Qinhuangdao Port 5500 was reported at 736.0 yuan/ton, down 14.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Qinhuangdao Port 5000 was reported at 653.0 yuan/ton, down 16.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI imported 4700 index was reported at 86.0 US dollars/ton, up 0.8 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI imported 3800 index was reported at 70.0 US dollars/ton, up 0.8 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5][8] Price (Overseas Coal) - The import price difference is inverted [9] 2. Supply Domestic Production (Weekly) - Pit - mouth supply is increasing steadily. From March 5 - 11, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West regions was 90.04%, an increase of 6.53 percentage points from the previous period. Factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the potential exit or conversion of uncompleted approved incremental production capacity, and the disposal of incremental production capacity that fails to fulfill coal contracts [14][16] Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. The annual production reached a new high, but the daily average production decreased. In 2025, Shanxi ranked first in production, with cumulative raw coal production of 130,454.5 tons, accounting for 27% of the national total and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; Inner Mongolia's cumulative raw coal production was 128,639.8 tons, accounting for 26.62% of the national total and a year - on - year decrease of 1%; Shaanxi's cumulative raw coal production was 80,461.7 tons, accounting for 16.65% of the national total and a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [17][22] Seaborne Coal - The arrival volume of imported coal at ports is less than the same period last year [23] Import (Monthly) - From January to February 2026, the national imported coal was 7,722.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In February, the import volume was 3,094.27 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.95%. In January, the import volume was 4,627.96 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.82%. Since 2026, Indonesia's coal exports have remained weak, with many policy interferences [24][29] 3. Inventory Mine - The inventory at the origin has increased month - on - month [31] Port - The inventory at northern ports continues to accumulate. As of March 13, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 2,456.0 tons, an increase of 116.0 tons week - on - week. With the maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the shipping volume from northern ports will be affected, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down [2][37] 4. Transportation - The inbound and outbound volumes at ports have increased [40] 5. Demand Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants is weak, and the inventory is high. In the next 10 days (March 14 - 23), there will be more rainy weather in the eastern part of Southwest China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In 2025, the growth rate of the whole - society electricity consumption was 5% [42][49][50] Power Production - In 2025, the thermal power generation decreased by 1% year - on - year. The precipitation in Southwest China is relatively low [53][55] Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains high. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 78.34% week - on - week, and the clinker production capacity utilization rate increased by 5.72 percentage points to 45.55% [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The post - holiday coal price rally was influenced by the Indonesian coal incident. However, as the market enters the traditional consumption off - season in March, the coal price support weakens, and the market pattern becomes looser, with coal prices likely to continue to decline. In the long - term, new energy will continue to replace thermal power, and coal demand will peak and decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Policy will guide supply, and coal prices will operate between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long run [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - Coal prices have a slight correction. Both domestic and imported coal prices have increased. As of March 6, 2026, the price of Yulin 5800 kcal coal index rose by 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Ordos 5500 kcal coal index fell by 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Datong 5500 kcal coal index rose by 22.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of Qinhuangdao Port 5500 coal was reported at 750.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Qinhuangdao Port 5000 coal was reported at 669.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI import 4700 index rose by 1.7 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI import 3800 index rose by 1.7 dollars/ton week - on - week [4][8]. 2. Supply 2.1 Domestic Production (Weekly) - Pit - mouth supply is increasing steadily. From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West regions reached 83.51%, up 13.97 percentage points from the previous period. Factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the exit or conversion of uncompleted approved increased - capacity mines, and the disposal of increased - capacity mines that fail to fulfill coal contracts [14][16]. 2.2 Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi produced 339556 tons of raw coal in 2025, accounting for 70.28% of the national total, with a year - on - year increase of 1.49% [17][22]. 2.3 Seaborne Coal - The arrival volume of imported coal at ports decreased month - on - month [23]. 2.4 Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume reached 5859.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. In 2026, Indonesian coal exports have been weak due to policy interference, such as slow approval of mining plans and potential export tariff regulations [24][29]. 3. Inventory 3.1 Mine - The inventory at the origin increased month - on - month [31]. 3.2 Port - The inventory at northern ports has accumulated. As of March 6, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 2340.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 108.0 tons [2][37]. 4. Transportation - The inflow and outflow of ports have increased [39]. 5. Demand 5.1 Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants has rebounded, and the inventory has been depleted. In the next 10 days (March 7 - 16), there will be more precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some areas will be lower than normal. In 2025, the growth rate of the whole - society electricity consumption was 5% [41][48][49]. 5.2 Power Production - In 2025, the thermal power generation decreased by 1% year - on - year. The precipitation in the southwest region is relatively low [52][54]. 5.3 Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains high. The blast furnace operating rate this week was 80.22% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker decreased by 6.19 percentage points to 35.29% week - on - week [60].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: March 1, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Industry: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, the thermal coal market started well, with prices continuing the pre - holiday strong trend. The current price increase is mainly boosted by the contraction of imported coal supply. However, in March, the market will gradually enter the traditional consumption off - season, and the support for coal price increases is expected to weaken, with limited sustainability [2]. - In the long - term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue. The demand for coal in the power system will peak and gradually decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The supply side will shift from ensuring supply and increasing production to stabilizing production and prices, and coal prices will run between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long - term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data Price - Coal prices are running moderately strong. As of February 27, the price of Yulin 5800 kcal index was 601.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Ordos 5500 kcal index was 538.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of Datong 5500 kcal index was 593.0 yuan/ton, up 21.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. At Qinhuangdao Port, the price of 5500 kcal coal was 744.0 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 5000 kcal coal was 666.0 yuan/ton, up 28.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI imported 4700 index was reported at 83.5 US dollars/ton, up 5.0 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI imported 3800 index was reported at 67.5 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5][9]. Overseas Coal Price - The overseas market price is relatively strong [10]. Supply - Domestic Production (Weekly) - After the Spring Festival, coal mines in the production areas gradually resumed work and production. From February 19 to February 25, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West region was 69.54%, a decrease of 15.92 percentage points from the previous period. As of February 27, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 81.4% (previous value 72.9%) [13][15]. Supply - Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal output increased by 1.2% year - on - year. In December 2025, the national raw coal output was 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. Shanxi ranked first in production, with a cumulative output of 130,454.5 tons, accounting for 27% of the national cumulative output and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; Inner Mongolia's cumulative output was 128,639.8 tons, accounting for 26.62% of the national cumulative output and a year - on - year decrease of 1%; Shaanxi's cumulative output was 80,461.7 tons, accounting for 16.65% of the national cumulative output and a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [16][21]. Supply - Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume was 58.597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The high import volume was due to the "rush to export" of overseas suppliers affected by Indonesia's export tariff policy adjustment and the import advantage of overseas coal given by the decline of domestic coal prices. Since 2026, Indonesia's coal exports have remained weak with more policy interferences [22][27]. Inventory - Mine - The inventory at the production areas decreased month - on - month [29]. Inventory - Port - The port inventory is running at a low level. As of February 27, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 22.32 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons week - on - week. The average daily port inflow this week was 1.0794 million tons, an increase of 0.1861 million tons month - on - month, and the average daily outflow was 1.068 million tons, an increase of 0.2121 million tons month - on - month [2][35]. Transportation - The port inflow and outflow have increased [37]. Demand - Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants has rebounded, but the inventory is relatively high. In the next 10 days (February 28 - March 9), most parts of the country will have an average temperature 1 - 3°C higher than the same period of the year, and the residential electricity demand will enter the off - season. In 2025, the growth rate of the whole - society electricity consumption was 5% [41][48][50]. Demand - Power Production - In 2025, the thermal power generation decreased by 1% year - on - year. The precipitation in the southwest region is relatively low [52][54]. Demand - Non - power - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains high. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 80.22% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker decreased by 6.19 percentage points to 35.29% week - on - week [60].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: February 8, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Industry: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic thermal coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and coal prices before the Spring Festival are expected to remain stable. The upstream private small mines are gradually on holiday, leading to a tight supply in the production area. The port inventory is continuously decreasing, which boosts the market sentiment. However, the demand is weak due to the lack of cold wave and the decline of industrial electricity consumption. The reduction of Indonesian coal production mainly affects the spot market, and the impact on long - term contracts is limited. In the long - term, new energy will continue to replace thermal power, and coal demand will peak and decline during the 14th Five - Year Plan period. The supply side will shift from ensuring supply and increasing production to stabilizing production and prices, and coal prices will run between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long - term [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data Price - The market supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the price fluctuates within a narrow range before the Spring Festival. The origin price is relatively stable, with the Yulin 5800 - calorie index at 598.0 yuan/ton (up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Ordos 5500 - calorie index at 522.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the Datong 5500 - calorie index at 567.0 yuan/ton (down 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week). The port price has a small increase, with the Qinhuangdao Port 5500 - calorie price at 698.0 yuan/ton (up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week) and the 5000 - calorie price at 617.0 yuan/ton (up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week). The import price also rises, with the CCI import 4700 index at 73.5 US dollars/ton (up 1.0 US dollars/ton week - on - week) and the CCI import 3800 index at 58.5 US dollars/ton (up 1.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week) [5][8]. Price (Overseas Coal) - The overseas market price shows a strong performance [9]. Supply - Domestic Production (Weekly) - Mines are gradually on holiday, and production is shrinking. The potential factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the exit or conversion of uncompleted approved incremental production capacity, and the disposal of incremental production capacity that fails to fulfill coal - power contracts. From January 29 to February 4, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Sanxi region was 88.74%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points from the previous period. As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 87.5% (previous value: 88.3%) [14][15][17]. Supply - Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal production was 483,178 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. In terms of regions, Shanxi ranked first with a cumulative raw coal production of 130,454.5 tons (27% of the national total, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%), Inner Mongolia had a cumulative production of 128,639.8 tons (26.62% of the national total, a year - on - year decrease of 1%), and Shaanxi had a cumulative production of 80,461.7 tons (16.65% of the national total, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%) [18][23]. Supply - Import (Weekly) - As of January 30, the weekly arrival volume of thermal coal at major ports was 684 tons (previous value: 763 tons, year - on - year: 641 tons) [24]. Supply - Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import was 5,859.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The high import volume was due to the "rush to export" of overseas suppliers affected by the adjustment of Indonesia's export tariff policy and the advantage of overseas coal import due to the tightening of domestic supply and the decline of domestic coal prices at the end of the year. In 2026, Indonesia's coal export has been sluggish, with policy interference such as the slow approval of the RKAB, the planned production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 (significantly lower than the actual production of 790 million tons in 2025), and the possible retroactive implementation of export tariff regulations [26][31]. Inventory - Mine - Fenwei data shows that the inventory at the origin has little change, while MS data shows a decline [33]. Inventory - Port - The middle and lower reaches maintain the rhythm of inventory reduction [39]. Transportation - The port inflow volume decreases, and the outflow volume increases [40]. 2. Demand Power Demand - Coastal Power Plants' Continuous Inventory - The coal consumption, supply, inventory, and available days of coastal eight - province power plants are presented in the report [41][42]. Power Demand - Temperature Rise in Central and Eastern Regions in the Next Ten Days - The temperature in the central and eastern regions will gradually rise, and the south will have more rainy weather [43][47]. Power Demand - 5% Growth in全社会 Electricity Consumption in 2025 - The electricity consumption of different industries in 2025 shows different growth rates [48][49]. Power Production - 1% Year - on - Year Decrease in Thermal Power Generation in 2025 - The power generation of different energy sources in 2025 is presented in the report [51][52]. Power Production - Less Precipitation in Southwest Region - The precipitation in Yunnan and Sichuan and the flow of the Three Gorges Reservoir are presented in the report [53][54][57]. Non - Electric - Weak Demand in Building Materials and Metallurgy, High - Level Operation of Chemical Coal Demand - The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.53% week - on - week, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.79 percentage points to 39.4% week - on - week. The production of chemical products such as PTA, PX, PVC, urea, methanol, and soda ash is at a high level [59][65].