Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Report Date: February 8, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Industry: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic thermal coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and coal prices before the Spring Festival are expected to remain stable. The upstream private small mines are gradually on holiday, leading to a tight supply in the production area. The port inventory is continuously decreasing, which boosts the market sentiment. However, the demand is weak due to the lack of cold wave and the decline of industrial electricity consumption. The reduction of Indonesian coal production mainly affects the spot market, and the impact on long - term contracts is limited. In the long - term, new energy will continue to replace thermal power, and coal demand will peak and decline during the 14th Five - Year Plan period. The supply side will shift from ensuring supply and increasing production to stabilizing production and prices, and coal prices will run between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long - term [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data Price - The market supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the price fluctuates within a narrow range before the Spring Festival. The origin price is relatively stable, with the Yulin 5800 - calorie index at 598.0 yuan/ton (up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Ordos 5500 - calorie index at 522.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the Datong 5500 - calorie index at 567.0 yuan/ton (down 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week). The port price has a small increase, with the Qinhuangdao Port 5500 - calorie price at 698.0 yuan/ton (up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week) and the 5000 - calorie price at 617.0 yuan/ton (up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week). The import price also rises, with the CCI import 4700 index at 73.5 US dollars/ton (up 1.0 US dollars/ton week - on - week) and the CCI import 3800 index at 58.5 US dollars/ton (up 1.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week) [5][8]. Price (Overseas Coal) - The overseas market price shows a strong performance [9]. Supply - Domestic Production (Weekly) - Mines are gradually on holiday, and production is shrinking. The potential factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the exit or conversion of uncompleted approved incremental production capacity, and the disposal of incremental production capacity that fails to fulfill coal - power contracts. From January 29 to February 4, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Sanxi region was 88.74%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points from the previous period. As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 87.5% (previous value: 88.3%) [14][15][17]. Supply - Domestic Production (Monthly) - In 2025, the national raw coal production was 483,178 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. In terms of regions, Shanxi ranked first with a cumulative raw coal production of 130,454.5 tons (27% of the national total, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%), Inner Mongolia had a cumulative production of 128,639.8 tons (26.62% of the national total, a year - on - year decrease of 1%), and Shaanxi had a cumulative production of 80,461.7 tons (16.65% of the national total, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%) [18][23]. Supply - Import (Weekly) - As of January 30, the weekly arrival volume of thermal coal at major ports was 684 tons (previous value: 763 tons, year - on - year: 641 tons) [24]. Supply - Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import was 5,859.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The high import volume was due to the "rush to export" of overseas suppliers affected by the adjustment of Indonesia's export tariff policy and the advantage of overseas coal import due to the tightening of domestic supply and the decline of domestic coal prices at the end of the year. In 2026, Indonesia's coal export has been sluggish, with policy interference such as the slow approval of the RKAB, the planned production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 (significantly lower than the actual production of 790 million tons in 2025), and the possible retroactive implementation of export tariff regulations [26][31]. Inventory - Mine - Fenwei data shows that the inventory at the origin has little change, while MS data shows a decline [33]. Inventory - Port - The middle and lower reaches maintain the rhythm of inventory reduction [39]. Transportation - The port inflow volume decreases, and the outflow volume increases [40]. 2. Demand Power Demand - Coastal Power Plants' Continuous Inventory - The coal consumption, supply, inventory, and available days of coastal eight - province power plants are presented in the report [41][42]. Power Demand - Temperature Rise in Central and Eastern Regions in the Next Ten Days - The temperature in the central and eastern regions will gradually rise, and the south will have more rainy weather [43][47]. Power Demand - 5% Growth in全社会 Electricity Consumption in 2025 - The electricity consumption of different industries in 2025 shows different growth rates [48][49]. Power Production - 1% Year - on - Year Decrease in Thermal Power Generation in 2025 - The power generation of different energy sources in 2025 is presented in the report [51][52]. Power Production - Less Precipitation in Southwest Region - The precipitation in Yunnan and Sichuan and the flow of the Three Gorges Reservoir are presented in the report [53][54][57]. Non - Electric - Weak Demand in Building Materials and Metallurgy, High - Level Operation of Chemical Coal Demand - The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.53% week - on - week, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.79 percentage points to 39.4% week - on - week. The production of chemical products such as PTA, PX, PVC, urea, methanol, and soda ash is at a high level [59][65].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Ferrous Metals - Analyst: Fan Yuanyuan - Date: February 1, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The thermal coal market is in a weak supply - demand balance, with prices fluctuating narrowly before the Spring Festival. The current price increase has limited sustainability and scope [2][3]. - In the long - term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue. Coal demand in the power system will peak and decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The supply side will shift from ensuring supply and increasing production to stabilizing production and prices. Coal prices will operate between 600 - 850 yuan/ton in the long run, and long - term contracts still have support [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price - Domestic prices: This week, domestic origin prices trended strongly. As of January 30, the 5800 kcal index in Yulin was 596.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 5500 kcal index in Ordos was 532.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 5500 kcal index in Datong was 568.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices were stable with a slight upward trend, with the 5500 kcal price at Qinhuangdao Port at 696.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 5000 kcal price at 614.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. Import prices rose, with the CCI Import 4700 index at 72.5 dollars/ton, up 1.3 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI Import 3800 index at 57 dollars/ton, up 1.8 dollars/ton week - on - week [9]. - Overseas prices: The overseas market showed a stable and slightly upward trend [10]. 3.2 Supply 3.2.1 Domestic Production (Weekly) - As the end of the year approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and production has contracted. From January 22 - 28, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West region was 89.80%, a 0.49 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. As of January 23, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 88.3% (previous value 89.6%). In 2026, potential factors affecting coal production capacity include the exit of backward production capacity, the possible exit or conversion to reserve capacity of uncompleted approved increased production capacity, and the disposal of unfulfilled nuclear - increased production capacity for thermal coal contracts [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Production (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national raw coal production was 43.703 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. The daily average production in December was 14.10 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons from November and 56,000 tons from the same period last year. In 2025, the national cumulative raw coal production was 483.178 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In terms of regions, Shanxi ranked first with a cumulative production of 130.4545 billion tons, accounting for 27% of the national total and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%; Inner Mongolia had a cumulative production of 128.6398 billion tons, accounting for 26.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%; Shaanxi had a cumulative production of 80.4617 billion tons, accounting for 16.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The three provinces produced 339.556 billion tons of raw coal in 2025, accounting for 70.28% of the national total and a year - on - year increase of 4.9916 billion tons or 1.49% [23]. 3.2.3 Import (Weekly) - As of January 23, the weekly arrival volume of thermal coal at major ports was 7.63 million tons (previous value 8.43 million tons, year - on - year 7.42 million tons), showing a week - on - week decline [24]. 3.2.4 Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume was 58.597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The high import volume was due to the "rush to export" by overseas suppliers affected by Indonesia's export tariff policy adjustment and the temporary tightening of domestic supply at the end of the year combined with the price advantage of imported coal. Since 2026, Indonesia's coal exports have remained sluggish with many policy interferences, such as slow approval of miners' work plans and budgets, a planned production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 (significantly lower than 790 million tons in 2025), and the government still drafting coal export tariff regulations with an expected tax rate of 5 - 8% [31]. 3.3 Inventory 3.3.1 Mine - The origin inventory decreased week - on - week [33]. 3.3.2 Port - The middle and lower reaches maintained the rhythm of de - stocking. As of January 30, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 23.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 million tons. This week, the average daily port inflow was 1.0042 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,600 tons, and the average daily outflow was 1.215 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 99,800 tons [3]. 3.4 Transportation - Port inflows decreased while outflows increased [41]. 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 Power Demand - Coastal power plants continued to maintain inventory. From January 31 - February 9, precipitation in some areas of China will vary, and temperatures in some regions will be higher or lower than normal. In 2025, the growth rate of全社会 electricity consumption was 5%. In 2025, thermal power generation decreased by 1% year - on - year. The precipitation in the southwest region was relatively low [48][50][52]. 3.5.2 Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy was weak, while the demand for chemical coal remained high. This week, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 79%, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased by 2.77 percentage points to 45.19% [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term coal market is weakly adjusted, and the impact of abnormal weather should be noted. The coal price may be weakly volatile in the short term, and the follow - up trend depends on the pre - Spring Festival coal mine shutdown, trader shipments, and terminal restocking rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, the long - term agreement price still provides support, and the reasonable coal price range of (570 - 770) has great reference value [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - Domestic coal prices show a mixed trend. As of January 16, the Yulin 5800 - kcal index was 596.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Ordos 5500 - kcal index was 537.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Datong 5500 - kcal index was 569.0 yuan/ton, down 12.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term coal price has limited upward and downward drivers, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather and policies. The overseas coal market is stable [9]. 2. Supply 2.1 Domestic Production (Weekly) - As of January 14, the capacity utilization rate of 160 coal mines was 90.32% (previous value 88.24%), and the output was 1.6457 million tons (previous value 1.607 million tons). As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of 462 sample mines was 90.6% (previous value 90.3%); the output was 3.8269 million tons (previous value 3.8164 million tons) [16]. 2.2 Domestic Production (Monthly) - In November 2025, the national raw coal output was 42.6793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. From January to November, the cumulative national raw coal output was 440.1647 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In 2026, potential factors affecting coal production capacity include the exit of backward production capacity, the exit or conversion of uncompleted approved increased production capacity into reserve capacity, and the disposal of increased production capacity that fails to fulfill coal - power contracts [24]. 2.3 Import (Weekly) - As of January 9, the weekly arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.19 million tons [25]. 2.4 Import (Monthly) - In December 2025, the national coal import volume was 5.8597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The higher - than - expected import volume was mainly due to the "rush to export" phenomenon of overseas suppliers affected by the adjustment of Indonesia's export tariff policy and the advantages of overseas coal imports due to the short - term tightening of domestic supply and the decline of domestic coal prices at the end of the year [32]. 3. Inventory 3.1 Mine Inventory - As of January 14, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 409,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons. As of January 16, the inventory of thermal coal sample enterprises' mines was 283,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons [37]. 3.2 Port Inventory - The de - stocking rhythm of northern ports has slowed down, and the overall inventory is still at a high level. As of January 16, the total inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) was 24.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons. The average daily inbound volume at ports this week was 1.0378 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.091 million tons, and the average daily outbound volume was 1.0576 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0128 million tons [3][38]. 4. Transportation - The inbound volume at ports has increased, and the number of anchored ships has risen [39]. 5. Demand 5.1 Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of power plants has limited support, and attention should be paid to the terminal restocking rhythm. In the next 10 days (January 17 - 26), cold air will strengthen, and the daily coal consumption may be boosted. From January to November, the total electricity consumption increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of the secondary industry has declined. The overall power generation has decreased, with both thermal and hydropower generation declining. The precipitation in the southwest region has weakened [41][49][50]. 5.2 Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is weak. This week, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84% week - on - week, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.83 percentage points to 40.7% week - on - week. The demand for chemical coal remains high [61][67]. 5.3 Total Demand - In November, the demand for thermal coal was weak, showing a year - on - year and month - on - month decline [69].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the nitrile glove industry experienced historically low prices in July and August, and companies are now adjusting their strategies in response to market conditions [1] - The company has adopted a strategy of reducing production to maintain prices and aims to help increase the average market price gradually [1]