港股汽车ETF国泰（520720）跟踪的是港股通汽车指数（931239），该指数从港股通范围内选取涉及整 车制造及电动化领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映港股通内汽车产业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 2月6日，港股汽车ETF国泰（520720）涨超1.2%，2026年汽车行业存结构性机会。 国海证券指出，2026年汽车行业不必悲观，结构存机会。在新能源购置税优惠确定性退坡、以旧换新幅 度退坡下，2026年汽车总量难有惊喜。但自主品牌高端化升级、智能化加速渗透、具身智能量产落地， 汽车以及产业链仍在大的技术变革周期中。具体看好：自主高端化机会；重卡产业链盈利加速；智能化 方面看好核心硬件放量、座舱价值量提升、robotaxi加速推广；人型机器人看好头部机器人厂商 ...

汽车股集体走低，截至发稿，小鹏汽车-W(09868)跌4.62%，报73.25港元；长城汽车（601633）(02333) 跌4.54%，报13.24港元；广汽集团(02238)跌1.29%，报3.83港元。 国泰海通证券则表示，2025年全年，乘用车批发销量2990.8万辆，同比+9%。综合考虑新能源购置税优 惠退坡及2026年以旧换新政策力度边际减弱，我们预计2026年整体乘用车市场销量约3021万辆，同比 +1%，新能源乘用车销量约1685万辆，同比+10%。 消息面上，1月22日，乘联分会发布数据，1月狭义乘用车零售销量预计约为180万辆，环比下降 20.4%，同比微增0.3%。其中，新能源乘用车零售量预计达80.0万辆，渗透率约为44.4%。国金证券发布 研报称，1月处于政策衔接期，消费者观望情绪较强，上半月车市表现较弱。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the automotive industry [22]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 30.21 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to be approximately 16.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [20][21]. - The report highlights that the overall passenger vehicle market in December 2025 saw a wholesale sales volume of 2.814 million units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and a decrease of 7% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales volume was 29.908 million units, an increase of 9% year-on-year [7][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Total Passenger Vehicle Sales - In December 2025, the total wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, down 9.4% year-on-year and down 7.0% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 156.3 thousand units, up 3% year-on-year and down 8% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 29.908 million units, up 9% year-on-year, while new energy passenger vehicle sales were 1.5319 million units, up 25% year-on-year [7][8]. 2. Key Automotive Companies' December Sales - **BYD**: In December, BYD delivered 420 thousand new vehicles, down 18% year-on-year and down 12% month-on-month. The overseas sales reached 132 thousand units, up 130% year-on-year [8][9]. - **Geely**: In December, Geely delivered 237 thousand new vehicles, up 13% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 3.45 million units, a 14% increase from 2025 [10]. - **Changan**: In December, Changan delivered 257 thousand new vehicles, down 19% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is 3.3 million units, a 13% increase from 2025 [12]. - **Great Wall Motors**: In December, Great Wall Motors delivered 124 thousand new vehicles, down 8% year-on-year. The company launched the "Guiyuan Platform" globally [13][14]. - **Li Auto**: In December, Li Auto delivered 44 thousand new vehicles, down 24% year-on-year. The OTA 8.2 version was fully pushed [15]. - **Leap Motor**: In December, Leap Motor delivered 60 thousand new vehicles, up 42% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [16][17]. - **Xpeng Motors**: In December, Xpeng Motors delivered 38 thousand new vehicles, achieving growth in both year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons. The 2025 cumulative delivery was 429 thousand units, up 126% year-on-year [18][19]. 3. Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The report notes that the effectiveness of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to diminish, with the total number of vehicles replaced exceeding 11.5 million in 2025, of which nearly 60% were new energy vehicles. The new policy for 2026 will shift from fixed subsidies to a "proportional subsidy + cap" model [20]. - The report anticipates that the reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives will lead to a more competitive market, pushing the industry towards higher performance and efficiency standards [21].