这不是唱衰，是清晰认知后的理性，寒冬筛掉泡沫，才能让真正的强者站稳脚跟。 "算了，不买了！" 笔者的朋友老周，最近犯了难。他开了九年的宝骏560早已满身风霜，本打算年底置换一台21.68万元的吉利银河M9，圆自己一个"大空间家用车"的梦。 可琢磨来琢磨去，他还是把购车计划按下了暂停键。 80后的老周，在川渝地区做些工程生意，这两年业务不景气，工程量锐减，家庭收入本就肉眼可见地缩水。更让他犹豫的是汽车的以旧换新政策，到了今 年四季度，补贴得靠摇号，能不能拿到手全看运气。 "摇不到号相当于亏1万多，兴许明年会有其他好的政策，而且晚买一定会享折扣。"老周的顾虑不是个例，而他的纠结，也恰似当下中国车市的一个缩 影：政策红利见顶，消费信心不足，往年年底"翘尾冲量"的热闹，今年彻底消失了。 乘联会最新数据显示，11月国内乘用车零售市场同比下跌8%，是四季度连续第二个月同比下滑，这种罕见走势，已然为2026年的车市蒙上了一层悲观的 阴影。 4000亿补贴砸不出翘尾行情 "往年11月、12月都是车市旺季，经销商忙得脚不沾地，今年却格外冷清。"在上海，一合资品牌4S店销售经理的吐槽，道出了行业的普遍感受。 而乘联会12月8日发 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming reduction of the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax is expected to stimulate a surge in vehicle purchases before the end of the year, with consumers aiming to take advantage of the tax benefits [1][4][5] Group 1: Tax Policy and Consumer Behavior - Several automakers have introduced "tax guarantee" policies to encourage consumers to place orders before the end of November, ensuring that any tax differences due to delays will be covered by the manufacturers [2][3] - Consumers are motivated to finalize their purchases quickly, as the current tax exemption will be replaced by a 5% tax next year, making timely orders crucial for savings [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Sales Strategies - The automotive market is currently experiencing a sales push as companies leverage the tax adjustment period to boost sales figures [4][5] - Data from the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that from October 1 to 26, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 901,000 units, with a year-to-date total of approximately 9.77 million units, reflecting a 22% year-on-year increase [4]