Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [7] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating on the strong side [10] Core Viewpoints - The risk of supply disruptions in the new energy metals market persists, leading to high - level and wide - range oscillations. Although short - term negative impacts on supply - demand expectations have driven a sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices, supply - demand is likely to enter a phase of relative tightness, which supports lithium prices. In the medium - to - short - term, the expected contraction of supply and rising costs support new energy metal prices. For lithium, supply disruptions may continue to push up prices in the medium - to - short - term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon face high production capacity and output, with weakening supply - demand and limited upward price momentum, showing an oscillating trend. In the long - term, if there is no substantial contraction in supply or significant improvement in demand, silicon prices may decline, and high growth in lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: As of August 21, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. In July, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. The export volume in July increased by 8.3% month - on - month and 36.7% year - on - year. In June, domestic photovoltaic new installations decreased by 38.45% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: Supply is on the rise, with silicon plants in the southwest resuming production faster due to the wet - season advantage and price rebound, and some large enterprises in Xinjiang resuming production after maintenance. Demand has improved slightly, with polysilicon enterprises driving up demand, the organic silicon industry maintaining rigid procurement, and the aluminum alloy sector having stable demand. Inventory is expected to accumulate further, and market pressure needs attention [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, silicon prices will continue to oscillate due to macro sentiment and coal prices. If large enterprises resume production intensively, prices may be further pressured [7]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: As of a certain period, the成交 price of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was in the range of 45,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan/ton, up 1.05% week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts increased. In July, exports decreased by 3.92% month - on - month and 63.14% year - on - year, while imports increased by 5.11% month - on - month. From January to June 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations increased by 107% year - on - year [7]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, anti - cut - throat competition sentiment is fluctuating, and coal prices have declined, resulting in wide - range oscillations in polysilicon prices. In terms of supply, production capacity in the southwest has increased with the wet season, and production is expected to continue rising in August. In terms of demand, photovoltaic installations in the first five months had high growth, but it has weakened since June, and future demand may continue to decline. Overall, supply - demand is under pressure, and price fluctuations have increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Anti - cut - throat competition policies have significantly boosted prices. Future price trends depend on policy implementation, and if policy expectations fade, prices may reverse [9]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: On August 21, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.2% to 82,760 yuan, and the total open interest decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 950 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 79,800 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 275 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The initial impact of the mine shutdown has subsided. The current trading focuses on actual supply - demand shortages and potential mine shutdowns. Fundamentally, a supply gap is emerging, with weekly production declining, especially for mica - based production. Imports declined significantly in July but are expected to recover in the fourth quarter. Demand is relatively stable in August and is expected to enter the peak season in September. Social inventory has decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts are gradually recovering. However, high prices may stimulate supply release. Market sentiment is volatile, and price extremes may occur [10]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by mine shutdowns is expected to keep prices oscillating on the strong side [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply side of new energy metals has seen rumors of disruptions, leading to a weak rebound in prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price trend is weak, but a weak rebound has occurred as prices fall to important cost areas. For long - term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties. [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of June 26, the price decline of industrial silicon slowed. Domestic inventory increased by 1.7% month - on - month to 438,500 tons. May production was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase but a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. May exports were 55,652 tons, an 8% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year decrease. May new photovoltaic installations were 92.9GW, a 105.5% month - on - month and 388% year - on - year increase. [4] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side news is disturbing, with northwest production rising and southwest entering the wet season. Demand from downstream industries is still weak, and social inventory continues to accumulate. However, the faster decline in futures prices has made the futures more cost - effective, leading to faster clearance of warehouse receipts, which supports the near - month contract. [4] - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices will rebound in the short term, but the overall surplus pattern remains unchanged. The subsequent price will show an oscillatory trend. [4] Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The N - type re - feedstock transaction price is between 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 34,400 yuan/ton. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2,600 lots. May exports were 2,097.6 tons, a 66.2% month - on - month increase but a 30% year - on - year decrease. May imports were 793 tons, a 16.9% month - on - month decrease. 1 - 5 months of new photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a 150% year - on - year increase. [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side disturbances have boosted prices. Production is currently low, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year due to the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. [6] - **Outlook**: Polysilicon prices will show wide - range oscillations. [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On June 26, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.02% to 61,500 yuan, and the total position decreased by 10,604 lots to 619,950 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan to 60,600 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade increased by 400 yuan to 59,000 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 620 US dollars/ton. On June 24, the first batch of lithium concentrate from the Ganfeng Goulamina project in Mali was shipped. [7] - **Main Logic**: The current market supply and demand lack drivers, and prices fluctuate with sentiment. Supply is increasing, and demand is relatively flat. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory clearance has slowed down. [8] - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate in the short term. [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - All three key new energy metals (industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate) are rated as "oscillating" [4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of new energy metals has seen rumors of disruptions, leading to a weak rebound in prices. In the short - to - medium term, prices are trending weakly, but as they fall to important cost areas, a weak rebound occurs. For the long - term, low prices may accelerate the production capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views - **Industrial Silicon** - **Current Situation**: As of June 24, the price decline of industrial silicon has slowed. The domestic inventory has increased, with production in May up 2.3% month - on - month but down 24.6% year - on - year. Exports in May decreased by 8.0% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May increased significantly [4] - **Logic**: On the supply side, northern large - scale plants are resuming production, and southwestern regions are entering the wet season with new capacity. On the demand side, downstream demand is still weak, especially from polysilicon enterprises [4] - **Outlook**: Supply continues to rise while demand remains weak, so the silicon price will be under pressure and show an oscillating trend [4] - **Polysilicon** - **Current Situation**: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock has decreased by 6.27% month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. Exports in May increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and imports decreased [4][5] - **Logic**: After the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, silicon wafer production scheduling has weakened in the short term, and the spot price has declined, causing the futures price to fall. Supply is currently at a low level, and demand may weaken in the future [5] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand situation is improving, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year, so the price will show a wide - range oscillation [5] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Current Situation**: On June 24, the closing price of the main contract increased by 2.67%, and the total position decreased. The spot price and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [6] - **Logic**: The market supply - demand lacks a driving force. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and social inventory is accumulating while warehouse receipts are decreasing. The ore price is testing the cost support [7] - **Outlook**: Demand is flat, supply is high but inventory is decreasing, so the price will oscillate in the short term [7] II. Market Monitoring - The report mentions market monitoring for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific content is provided [8][14][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost provides weak support, leading to a rebound in new energy metal prices. New energy metal prices have been falling, with a slight and temporary contraction in supply. The stabilization of domestic energy prices offers weak cost support, but the supply - demand situation has not significantly improved, and the oversupply pattern continues. To reverse the current decline, a significant contraction in supply is needed. In the short and medium term, the price trend of new energy metals is weak, and cautious participation is advisable. Long - term low prices may accelerate the elimination of production capacity of domestically self - priced varieties [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: During the wet season, supply increases while demand is weak, causing silicon prices to fluctuate under pressure. As of June 4, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China was 8150 yuan/ton, and 421 was 8850 yuan/ton. Domestic inventory was 420,900 tons, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. In May 2025, domestic industrial silicon monthly output was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. In April, industrial silicon exports were 60,509 tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 9.2% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, large northern factories are gradually resuming production, and supply in the northwest is increasing. In June, the southwest enters the wet season, with the operating rate in Sichuan having already rebounded, and Yunnan's operating rate expected to follow. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Polysilicon factories continue to cut production, and the demand for industrial silicon is still low. The organic silicon industry's operating rate has slightly recovered, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. Aluminum alloy has limited impact on industrial silicon demand. Inventory continues to accumulate, but futures prices have fallen rapidly, leading to a reduction in warehouse receipt inventory [5]. - **Outlook**: The current pace of silicon factory复产 in the northwest has slowed, but there is still potential for further复产. In June, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will increase. Under high supply pressure, inventory will continue to accumulate, and silicon prices will remain under pressure, but short - term small rebounds are possible. Silicon prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The number of warehouse receipt registrations has increased, causing polysilicon prices to fluctuate widely. The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. In April, China's polysilicon exports were about 1,262.3 tons, a 37% month - on - month decrease, and imports were about 954.3 tons, a 67.2% month - on - month decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the speed of polysilicon warehouse receipt registration has accelerated. There is significant uncertainty about polysilicon复产 during the wet season, and it is expected that large - scale factory production capacity will be replaced, greatly alleviating supply pressure. Most silicon material factories are still in a loss state, and polysilicon production is currently at a low level. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, downstream product prices such as components have begun to decline, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year [5]. - **Outlook**: The short - term low production of polysilicon has improved the supply - demand situation, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year. Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is strong, and lithium carbonate prices are rising following the trend. On June 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.9% to 61,080 yuan. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 7,135 lots to 57,874 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan to 60,250 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade price decreased by 50 yuan to 58,650 yuan/ton [6]. - **Main Logic**: The current fundamentals are still loose, but inventory has marginally improved, and the price difference structure has strengthened. Weekly production increased by 487 tons to 16,600 tons. From January to May, domestic cathode materials maintained growth. In June, the off - season production schedule increased slightly more than expected. Social inventory has slightly decreased, and warehouse receipt inventory has also decreased recently. Ore prices are still falling, but have not reached the marginal cost of Australian mines, and no mine production cuts have been observed [7]. - **Outlook**: Demand is weak, and supply is high. Prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are all "oscillating" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of new energy metals is that supply and demand are weak, and prices will maintain a weak trend. In the short - to - medium term, prices are weak, and cautious participation is advisable. For long - term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1]. - Industrial silicon: During the wet season, supply increases while demand is weak, and silicon prices are under downward pressure [2][5]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and polycrystalline silicon prices fluctuate widely [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The support of ore prices continues to decline, and lithium prices are under pressure [2][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Current prices**: As of June 3, according to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 8,200 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 8,850 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory situation**: According to Baichuan data, the domestic inventory is 420,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; market inventory is 169,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; factory inventory is 251,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [5]. - **Production and export**: In May 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; from January to May, the cumulative production was 1.544 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In April, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,509 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [5]. - **Photovoltaic installation**: In April, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 45.2GW, a month - on - month increase of 123.4% and a year - on - year increase of 214.7%; from January to April, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 104.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 74.6% [5]. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, large northern factories are gradually resuming production, and supply in the northwest is rising. In June, the southwest enters the wet season, and the operating rate in Sichuan has risen first, followed by Yunnan. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Polysilicon factories continue to cut production, and demand for industrial silicon is still weak. The organic silicon industry has a slight recovery, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry has limited impact. Inventory continues to accumulate, but futures prices have fallen rapidly, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased [5]. - **Outlook**: The resumption of production in northwest silicon factories has slowed down, but there is still a possibility of further resumption. In June, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will increase. Under high supply pressure, inventory will continue to accumulate. Silicon prices are expected to oscillate [5]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price and trade data**: According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%. In April, China's polycrystalline silicon export volume was about 1,262.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.2%. The import volume was about 954.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,951.7 tons (a decrease of 67.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2,713.9 tons (a decrease of 73.98%) [5]. - **Photovoltaic installation**: From January to April 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 104.93GW, a year - on - year increase of 74.56%. In 2024, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [5]. - **Industry news**: The photovoltaic silicon material sector holds a "meeting" monthly to discuss production cuts. Leading silicon material enterprises intend to jointly promote capacity integration but still need to discuss implementation [5]. - **Warehouse receipt situation**: The latest number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 1,570 lots, an increase of 1,100 lots compared to the previous value [5]. - **Main logic**: The registration speed of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts has accelerated recently, and there is great uncertainty about the resumption of production during the wet season. It is expected that large - scale production capacity will be replaced, and supply pressure will be greatly alleviated. Under the influence of both positive and negative news, price fluctuations have increased. On the supply side, most silicon material factories are still in a loss state, and production is currently at a low level. In April, production was below 100,000 tons, a significant decline compared to the beginning of 2024. It is expected that low production will continue in May 2025. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - to - install period, the prices of downstream photovoltaic products such as components have begun to decline, and there is a risk of weakening demand for polycrystalline silicon in the second half of the year [5][6]. - **Outlook**: The short - term low production of polycrystalline silicon has improved supply and demand, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and trading data**: On June 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.23% to 59,940 yuan; the total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 12,174 lots to 585,875 lots. The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan to 60,300 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan to 58,700 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) on Flush decreased by 12 US dollars to 608 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 58,500 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. On that day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 60 tons to 33,397 tons [7]. - **Industry news**: Bolivia's lithium mining development plan for the Uyuni Salt Flats has suffered a major setback. The local court has suspended two large - scale lithium mining agreements with China and Russia, with a total value of over 2 billion US dollars and a planned annual production capacity of 35,000 tons of lithium carbonate [7]. - **Main logic**: The fundamentals are still relatively loose, but inventory has marginally improved, and the price difference structure has strengthened. On the supply side, weekly production increased by 487 tons to 16,600 tons. On the demand side, domestic cathode materials maintained growth from January to May but at a slower pace. June is a demand off - season, and demand is expected to be flat compared to the previous month, better than the same period last year. Social inventory decreased slightly by 208 tons in a single week, and warehouse receipt inventory has also decreased recently. Ore prices are still falling, but they have not reached the marginal cost of Australian mines, and no mine production cuts have been seen. In the future, cost support will continue to be tested, and lithium carbonate prices will be further pushed down. With the expectation of weakening demand and increasing supply, social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and prices will be under pressure. In the short term, the monthly spread has strengthened, and warehouse receipts have continuously decreased. Attention should be paid to mine production cut news, and opportunities for short - selling on rebounds or reverse spreads should be monitored [7]. - **Outlook**: Demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7].