Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, with supply - side policies yet to be clarified, the prices of new energy metals will continue to oscillate. In the long run, there is a strong expectation of supply contraction for silicon, especially polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in an upward phase, and the high - growth supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, domestic monthly industrial silicon production was 421,000 tons, a 9.1% month - on - month increase and a 7.3% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, an 18.3% year - on - year decrease. In September, industrial silicon exports were 70,233 tons, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease and a 7.7% year - on - year increase; the cumulative exports from January to September 2025 were 561,000 tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase. The latest domestic inventory was 445,500 tons, a 0.7% month - on - month increase [7] - **Main Logic**: Supply is increasing in the northwest and is expected to decrease in the southwest during the dry season. Demand has slightly improved, with polysilicon driving consumption up, the organic silicon DMC market stable, and aluminum alloy demand remaining rigid. The supply is generally loose, but coal price fluctuations provide some support, so the price will oscillate in the short term [7] Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The N - type re - feedstock polysilicon transaction price range is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The latest polysilicon warehouse receipt quantity on the GME is 9,150 lots, an increase of 540 lots from the previous value. From January to August 2025, domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 230.61 GW, a 65% year - on - year increase [8] - **Main Logic**: Production has recovered to over 130,000 tons from August to September and is expected to remain high in October. The demand may weaken in the fourth quarter. The supply - demand situation is under pressure, and the price may reverse if policy expectations fade [8][9][10] Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On October 20, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract remained unchanged at 75,700 yuan/ton, and the total contract positions decreased by 594 to 706,153 lots. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 71,750 yuan/ton [10][11] - **Main Logic**: The current supply and demand are both strong, but there is an expectation of oversupply after the peak season. Supply is increasing, and demand is strong in the short term. Social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still high. The price will oscillate due to weak price drivers [11] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the categories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate for market monitoring but does not provide specific monitoring content 3. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,231.41, a 0.06% decrease; the commodity 20 index was 2,533.64, a 0.15% decrease; the industrial products index was 2,183.97, a 0.37% increase [52] - **Sector Index**: The new energy commodity index on October 20, 2025, was 399.92, with a daily decline of 0.63%, a 5 - day increase of 2.23%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.02% [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][5][9] Core Viewpoints - Cost stabilization, recovery, and policy expectations support the high - level consolidation of new energy metals. The supply - side contraction and cost increase expectations in the short - to - medium - term support the prices, but the expected output increase limits the upward space. For Jiangxi lithium mines, before official news on production cuts, one can cautiously bet on short - term potential upward opportunities for lithium through options. Industrial silicon and polysilicon face high production capacity and output but weak demand, and their price increases are slowing down [1] - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating; the polysilicon price has wide - range fluctuations; the direction of the lithium carbonate market is unclear, and the price is oscillating [2][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. The medium - term outlook is also oscillating [5] - **Information Analysis**: As of August 6, the spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory increased slightly, with the factory inventory rising by 0.4% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output was 338,000 tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase but a 30.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative output was 2.21 million tons, a 20.0% year - on - year decrease. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export was 340,705 tons, a 6.6% year - on - year decrease. In June, the domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 14.36GW, a 38.45% year - on - year decrease; from January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a 107.07% year - on - year increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some industrial silicon contracts [5] - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon is continuously recovering, and the supply pressure may further increase in August. The demand has improved month - on - month, but the inventory and warehouse receipts may continue to accumulate. The silicon price is currently affected by macro - sentiment and coal price fluctuations and is expected to oscillate in the short term. If large factories resume production intensively, it may further suppress the price [6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the polysilicon price has wide - range fluctuations. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6] - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a 0.21% week - on - week increase. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 70. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase but a 39.67% year - on - year decrease; from January to June 2025, the cumulative export was 11,389.98 tons, a 7.23% year - on - year decrease. In June, the import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% month - on - month increase; from January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 11,209.78 tons, a 47.59% year - on - year decrease. From January to June 2025, the domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 212.21GW, a 107% year - on - year increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted relevant contract parameters [6][7] - **Main Logic**: Macro - sentiment and coal price fluctuations cause wide - range price fluctuations. The supply is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has a significant impact on the price, and if the policy expectations fade, the price may reverse [8][9] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [9] - **Information Analysis**: On August 6, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.62%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 760 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 67,800 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 580 tons [9] - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled, but supply uncertainties remain. The fundamentals have improved slightly, with production decreasing slightly and demand being stable. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory is in line with expectations. The domestic supply - demand is generally balanced in the third quarter, but high prices may stimulate supply. The price may rise if market sentiment recovers, and it will be affected by the outcome of mine shutdowns [10] 行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part [11][17][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [10][12] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to exchange position limits and fluctuating supply - side expectations, new energy metals maintain high - level oscillations. The contraction expectation and cost increase expectation of the supply side support the prices of new energy metals, but the position limits and unconfirmed news lead to repeated capital expectations, causing high - level oscillations in prices [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is a game between sentiment and reality, and silicon prices continue to fluctuate. For polysilicon, market sentiment is volatile, leading to increased price fluctuations. For lithium carbonate, the market direction is unclear, and it oscillates [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Information analysis: As of July 31, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory was 442,900 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase. In June 2025, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 27.7% year - on - year decrease. The export volume in June was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% month - on - month increase and an 11.6% year - on - year increase. The domestic photovoltaic new installation in June was 14.36GW, a 38.45% year - on - year decrease. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some industrial silicon contracts [6]. - Main logic: On the supply side, the submerged arc furnaces of large northwest factories that were under maintenance have recently resumed production, and the resumption of production in the southwest has accelerated. In the short term, the reduction in the northwest still dominates supply changes, but domestic supply may gradually recover. On the demand side, it is still weak year - on - year but shows marginal improvement. The inventory of warehouse receipts has a certain support for silicon prices, but the rate of reduction has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: Silicon factories have a strong willingness to hold prices, and prices have moved up. Macro sentiment and coal prices drive silicon prices to continue to oscillate in the short term. The subsequent resumption rhythm and intensity in the northwest need further observation [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Information analysis: The transaction price of N - type re - feed material was in the range of 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 3,200 lots, an increase of 130 lots. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase and a 39.67% year - on - year decrease. The import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% month - on - month increase. The domestic photovoltaic new installation from January to June 2025 was 212.21GW, a 107% year - on - year increase [7]. - Main logic: Macroscopically, market risk sentiment has declined, and polysilicon prices have fallen again due to exchange position limits. In terms of supply, with the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity in the southwest has increased. It is expected that the output will continue to rise in July - August. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit supply. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation in the first five months increased significantly, but it over - consumed the demand for the second half of the year, and the demand may weaken. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation of polysilicon, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment and policy implementation [9][10]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted polysilicon prices. If the policy expectation is falsified, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Information analysis: On July 31, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 3.29% to 68,280 yuan, and the total open interest decreased by 27,750 lots to 699,164 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade decreased by 950 yuan to 69,900 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 785 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 69,500 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts decreased by 7,586 tons to 5,545 tons [10][11]. - Main logic: Currently, the supply - demand drivers are not strong, and market sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, there are few changes. The weekly output has slightly decreased, mainly due to production cuts in salt lakes and mica mines. The demand is not significantly higher than expected, and the production schedule in August is relatively stable. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the remaining amount of warehouse receipt inventory after centralized cancellation meets expectations. The willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has recovered as prices rise, and warehouse receipts may gradually recover in August. In general, the domestic supply - demand is in a rough balance in the third quarter, but high prices may stimulate supply. The core factors affecting the market are the anti - involution sentiment and the progress of mining license issues. Before the result of mine shutdown is confirmed, if market sentiment recovers, the price may rise. If the shutdown is falsified, it will return to fundamental trading; if confirmed, it will cause a large gap in the third quarter and drive prices up [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation [12].