基金军工配置比例依然有较大提升空间， 重点关注军贸和新质作战方向 2025Q2 军工行业基金持仓分析 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 内需外贸共振背景下"十五五"的高景气将持续，基金军工配置比例依然有较大提升空 间。军贸未来催化不断，持仓仍有向上空间；同时军工上游悲观预期已充分反应在股价 中，市场对景气持续性的信心提升也会提升上游的持仓。建议关注以下细分领域标的： 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 罗楠 | 021-63325888*4036 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | 冯函 | 021-63325888*2900 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | 鲍丙文 | | --- | | baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn | 军 工电子： 振华科技(000733，增持)、鸿远电子 ...

| 行业基本情况 | | --- | 证券研究报告：国防军工|行业周报 发布时间：2025-07-21 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 收盘点位 | 1669.63 | | --- | --- | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 行业相对指数表现 -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王煜童 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070004 Email:wangyutong@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 7 月第 2 周：16 家军工 上市公司披露 2025H1 业绩预告，船舶和 国防信息化板块相关标的业绩高增长》 - 2025.07.15 国防军工行业报告 37 家军工上市公司披露 2025H1 业绩预告，船舶和 国防 ...

3、低空经济博览会即将召开：2025国际低空经济博览会将于7月23日至26日举办，预计吸引超5万人 次，参展商近300家包括大疆等知名企业。 4、乌兹别克斯坦拟采购"枭龙"战机：7月15日，据权威防务消息源透露，乌兹别克斯坦即将敲定采购中 巴联合研制的JF-17"枭龙"战机，此举旨在寻求高性价比防务技术。若协议达成，乌兹别克斯坦将成 为"枭龙"第四个出口客户，进一步推动中国军贸体系化输出。 5、上海航天主题公园签约：7月15日，上海国际旅游度假区与北京军工宏图签署协议，将建设航天主题 公园。项目以"东方乐城"为核心，融合航天科技与文旅体验，推动爱国主义教育与产业创新融合。 6、日本发布2025年防卫白皮书：7月15日，日本防卫省发布白皮书，日本2025财年防卫预算增至9.9兆 日元，强化西南诸岛防御及反导能力。 7月15日，三大指数涨跌分化，上证指数下跌0.42%，深证成指上涨0.56%，创业板指上涨1.73%。军工 板块短期回调。截至收盘，国证航天指数下跌0.70%，成分股11只上涨，39只下跌，热门ETF中，航空 航天ETF（159227）跌幅0.82%，收盘价1.091元，成交额收于9983万元，最新规 ...

证券研究报告：国防军工|行业周报 发布时间：2025-07-01 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 1596.82 | | 52 | 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1113.62 | 行业相对指数表现 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 行业投资评级 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 6 月第 3 周：美国介入 以伊冲突空袭伊朗核设施，歼 35A 首次 海外亮相巴黎航展》 - 2025.06.27 国防军工行业报告 9 月 3 日天安门将举行阅兵，传统主战力量和新域 新质力量均将参阅 ⚫ 投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the defense and military industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The grand military parade on September 3 will showcase new generation equipment and new combat forces, emphasizing the importance of unmanned intelligent systems, underwater operations, electronic warfare, and hypersonic technologies [9][22] - The appointment of Zhang Yujin as the new chairman of China Aviation Engine Group is expected to accelerate procurement and capital operations within the industry, indicating a turning point for the aviation engine sector [12][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry consists of 143 listed companies with a total market value of 26,967.47 billion and a circulating market value of 22,823.81 billion [3] Market Performance - The defense and military index rose by 6.90%, outperforming other major indices, with a current PE(TTM) of 68.4 times [8][42][48] Key Developments - The establishment of a joint laboratory for key vacuum measurement devices in nuclear fusion aims to promote independent innovation in this field [14][31] - The revision of the civil aviation law focuses on the development of the low-altitude economy and passenger rights [15][32] - The successful test of the second-stage propulsion system of the LQ-2 liquid launch vehicle marks a significant step towards enhancing China's capabilities in commercial space [17][37] Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: - Military electronics: Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, Huada Electronics [26] - Missile industry chain: Tianqin Equipment, Zhimin Technology [26] - Domestic engines: Aero Engine Corporation of China, Aero Engine Control [27] - New domains: Satellite internet and low-altitude economy companies [28]

Market Performance - The military sector has shown strong performance for two consecutive days, with stocks like North Navigation, Guorui Technology, and Wanlima experiencing significant gains, including multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - Notable stocks include Changcheng Military Industry with a 9.99% increase, Wanlima with a 20.05% increase, and Hunan Tianyan with a 9.97% increase [3] Events - A major military parade is scheduled for September 3, showcasing domestically produced military equipment, including new-generation traditional weapons and advanced combat capabilities [4] - NATO has announced plans to increase military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, indicating a significant shift in defense budgets [4] Institutional Insights - The upcoming military parade is seen as a strategic declaration of China's military capabilities and a driver for the military industry, emphasizing "domestication," "new quality," and "systematization" as key trends [4] - The military industry is expected to benefit from global military development changes and internal growth driven by strong planning, amidst increasing geopolitical tensions [4] - Historical trends indicate that significant market movements in the military sector have been driven by asset restructuring and large contracts, with expectations for continued restructuring in 2025 [4] - Global military spending is projected to reach $27.18 billion in 2024, marking a 9.4% increase from 2023, the largest annual growth since the Cold War [4][5]

Group 1 - The aerospace and defense industry index (CN5082) has seen a strong increase of 1.64% as of June 26, 2025, with notable stock performances including Beifang Navigation (600435) up by 10.01%, Construction Industry (002265) up by 10.00%, and Changcheng Military Industry (601606) up by 9.99% [1] - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) rose by 1.50%, with a latest price of 1.09 yuan and a trading volume of 5.4997 million yuan, indicating significant capital inflow of 13.4078 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] - A recent press conference announced a grand ceremony on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, which includes a military parade [1] Group 2 - The military parade will showcase new-generation traditional weaponry alongside new combat forces such as unmanned systems, underwater operations, cyber warfare, and hypersonic capabilities, reflecting the military's adaptation to technological advancements and evolving warfare [2] - High-level leadership emphasized the importance of integrating new production capabilities with new combat capabilities, indicating a strategic direction for the military's capability building and the core driving force for the defense industry [2] - Key themes for understanding the current and future development trends of China's military industry include "domestication," "new quality," and "systematization," with a focus on "new domain new quality combat forces" as a priority for future defense research and equipment procurement [2] Group 3 - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) closely tracks the national aerospace index, with a high weight of 96% in the defense and military industry, making it one of the purest military-themed ETFs in the market [2] - The ETF's constituent stocks are heavily focused on aerospace capabilities, with over 80% representation in segments such as domestic large aircraft and drones [2] - A table of stock performance shows various companies in the aerospace sector, with notable increases in stock prices, such as Zhongbing Hongjian (000519) up by 7.34% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry ETF (512810) is experiencing strong upward momentum, driven by market speculation surrounding the upcoming military parade and the strategic importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) opened high and rose by 1.58%, marking a potential four-day winning streak with trading volume surpassing 40 million yuan [1]. - Over 60 out of 80 constituent stocks of the ETF are in the green, with notable performances from North Navigation, Construction Industry, and Great Wall Military, the latter achieving an impressive 7 out of 6 consecutive trading days of gains [1][5]. - The ETF has recently undergone a split to lower its net asset value, reducing the trading threshold from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Drivers - The recent surge in the defense and military sector is attributed to the anticipation of the September 3 military parade, which historically has led to bullish trends in the sector [1][3]. - The military parade is expected to showcase domestic military capabilities and innovations, potentially enhancing China's military trade and positioning in the global market [3]. - The focus on new domains and quality in military capabilities is likely to drive future research and procurement in the defense sector, indicating a shift towards more advanced technologies [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The defense military ETF (512810) serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to both traditional and emerging military capabilities, while also being a financing and interconnectivity target [4]. - The influx of over 40 billion yuan in main funds within the first 20 minutes of trading indicates strong investor interest and confidence in the sector [5].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.34%, driven by strong performances in the military and diversified financial sectors [1] - Northbound capital saw a substantial inflow of 8.1 billion yuan, indicating increased foreign interest in A-shares [1] External Market Influence - U.S. stock markets rose over 1%, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 3.31%, positively impacting A-shares [3] - The easing of tensions in the Middle East and a 6% drop in international oil prices contributed to a more favorable market environment [3] Technical Analysis - The ChiNext Index broke through the critical resistance level of 2050 points, indicating a strong upward momentum [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed potential to challenge the 3450-point mark, contingent on volume support [3] Capital Flow - Northbound funds were actively purchasing, with over 4 billion yuan each in both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock connects, reflecting foreign optimism towards A-shares [4] - Domestic capital showed a net outflow overall, but focused on military, financial, and solid-state battery sectors [4] Sector Performance - The military sector saw significant gains, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit, supported by a 7.2% increase in defense budgets and geopolitical risk hedging [4] - The financial sector's surge was attributed to favorable policies announced at the Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai [4] - The solid-state battery sector is gaining traction, with companies like Xiangtan Electrochemical achieving five consecutive trading limits, driven by advancements in technology and upcoming production milestones [5] Underperforming Sectors - The oil and gas extraction sector faced declines, with companies like Zhun Oil Co. hitting the daily limit down, linked to the drop in international oil prices [6] - The port shipping and film industry are also experiencing adjustments due to economic cycles and market capital flow [6] - The liquor sector remains sluggish, with prices for premium products like Moutai dropping significantly due to seasonal consumption declines and industry de-financialization [6] Investment Strategy - For long-term investors, the military and financial sectors present ongoing opportunities, particularly in military stocks supported by policy and earnings expectations [6] - Caution is advised in the solid-state battery sector due to high short-term volatility, emphasizing the need to identify companies with genuine technological breakthroughs [6] - The ChiNext Index's ability to maintain above 2100 points could lead to a challenge of 2200 points, with a focus on technology and new energy sectors [6]

Market Overview - The stock indices collectively adjusted this week, with a total net outflow of approximately 17 billion yuan from stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1][6] - The total trading volume for the week reached 56.9 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 22.6 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market for 34.3 trillion yuan [2] ETF Performance - Major ETFs such as the Sci-Tech 50 and the CSI 1000 saw declines exceeding 1% this week, with a total net outflow of 3.97 billion yuan from the top 10 index ETFs [5] - The CSI 300 ETF and the Shanghai 50 ETF experienced slight declines of 0.03% and 0.11%, respectively, with net outflows of 10.87 million and 7.95 million yuan [3][4] Sector Analysis - The military industry-related ETFs received significant inflows, with the Military Leader ETF, Military ETF, and National Defense ETF seeing net inflows of 9.86 billion, 7.54 billion, and 6.95 billion yuan, respectively [7][9] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector faced continued selling pressure, with the Medical ETF, Innovative Drug ETF, and Consumer ETF experiencing net outflows of 9.89 billion, 7.97 billion, and 3.17 billion yuan, respectively [8][11] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the military industry may see a turning point in orders by 2025, driven by new technologies and military trade opportunities [11] - The innovative drug sector is expected to transition from capital-driven to profit-driven growth, presenting potential investment opportunities as the industry matures [15]