分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.08.18-2025.08.22）国内股票市场普涨，成长风格显著跑赢价值风格，小盘股相对 涨幅居前。结构方面，上周领涨板块仍集中在AI产业链、有色金属及创新药等强势领域，结构性特征依然突 出。 权益市场观察： 国产算力：对比光模块/CPO的上涨逻辑，后续国产替代也将从国产GPU/设备等业绩确定性方向的EPS驱动阶 段，逐步过渡至至算力租赁、AI应用等低估值方向，并可能进一步扩散至重组、技术合作等主题性机会。 军工：本次阅兵不仅彰显国防建设成果，更将明确未来重点发展方向，预计人工智能、网络安全、水下作战等 领域的装备升级将带动全产业链协同发展。 港股科技：上周五美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话被市场解读为鸽派转向，后续流动性对于恒生科技的负向影响可能 逐步减弱，A股市场的情绪最终亦会传导至港股。 公募基金市场动态： 2025年8月22日，中国证监会发布《关于修改 <证券公司分类监管规定> 的决定》，新规 增设证券公司自营投资权益类资产、资管产品投资权益类资产、代销权益类基 ...

Market Overview - On August 19, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.02%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.38%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.12%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.07%, the ChiNext Index declined by 0.17%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.21% [4] - The best-performing sectors on August 19 were comprehensive (+3.48%), communication (+1.87%), food and beverage (+1.04%), retail (+0.89%), and home appliances (+0.87%). The worst-performing sectors were non-bank financials (-1.64%), defense and military industry (-1.55%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.58%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.54%), and coal (-0.52%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on August 19 was 26,407 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 18.573 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights China Marine Defense (600764) as a leading player in underwater acoustic defense, benefiting from underwater operations and deep-sea technology [5] - The recommendation logic includes the following points: 1. The company is expected to benefit from the demand for various sonar types due to naval ship outfitting and ocean observation network needs [5] 2. The future trend of underwater three-dimensional offense and defense, with unmanned underwater vehicles likely to open new growth avenues for the company [5] 3. Anticipated asset integration within the group [5] - Key driving factors include accelerated naval construction and ocean observation network development, advancements in underwater combat equipment, and potential group asset integration [5] - The revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 3,850 million yuan, 4,632 million yuan, and 5,528 million yuan, with growth rates of 21%, 20%, and 19% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 362 million yuan, 507 million yuan, and 653 million yuan, with growth rates of 59%, 40%, and 29% respectively [5] - The earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.51 yuan, 0.71 yuan, and 0.92 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 72, 51, and 40 times [5] - Catalysts for growth include unexpected large procurement orders for naval ships, favorable deep-sea technology policies, and potential asset integration within the group [5]

Summary of Military Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The military industry in China has seen significant interest following military parades, with a notable 17% increase in the index after the announcement of the 2025 parade on June 24, 2025 [1][4] - The focus for the next five years will be on the development of new-generation traditional weapons and new combat forces, including unmanned intelligence, underwater operations, cyber-electronic warfare, and hypersonic technologies [1][4] Key Trends and Developments - The military industry is expected to enter a gradual upward development phase starting in 2025, influenced by significant events such as the India-Pakistan conflict and the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][19] - The military trade market is projected to have substantial growth potential during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on radar, aerospace, and military technology companies [3][14] Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - In Q2 2025, there was a rebound in holdings of military-focused public funds, indicating improved market confidence in the military sector [3][11] - Investment opportunities are concentrated in new-generation traditional equipment and guided weaponry, with specific companies highlighted such as Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group and Optics Valley [3][13] Historical Context and Valuation Changes - Historical military parades have consistently led to increased market activity, with significant trading volumes and price increases observed in the months leading up to these events [6][7] - The military industry's valuation has fluctuated over the years, peaking in 2015-2016 due to state-owned enterprise restructuring, followed by a decline until 2020, when demand expectations began to rise again [9][10] Future Projections - The military industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory from 2025 to 2027, with key events such as the 93rd military parade and the 15th Five-Year Plan serving as critical milestones [19][20] - New combat forces, including unmanned systems and hypersonic technologies, will be prioritized in future developments [20] Recommended Companies and Sectors - Companies to watch in the military trade sector include Radar, Nanhua, Guorui Technology, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, and AVIC High-Tech [15][21] - In the new combat forces sector, companies involved in unmanned systems and underwater operations, such as Aerospace Electronics and Jintai Technology, are recommended for investment [16][17][18] Conclusion - The military industry is poised for growth, driven by technological advancements and strategic geopolitical events, making it a compelling area for investment in the coming years [2][19]

Market Overview - On August 6, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.66%. The STAR 100 Index led with a rise of 1.62% [1][2] - In the Hong Kong market, major indices also collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.20% [4][5] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector led the gains with an increase of 3.07%, followed by machinery equipment at 1.98% and coal at 1.89%. Conversely, the pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a decline of 0.65%, along with commercial trade and construction materials, both down by 0.23% [6] Hot Topics - The defense sector is heating up as the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War approaches, with the National Defense ETF (512670) rising by 2.4% to a new high of 0.855. The upcoming military parade on September 3, 2025, is expected to draw significant attention, particularly towards new technologies in military equipment [7] - Analysts highlight three advantages for the securities sector: 1. High cost-performance ratio due to improved mid-year performance and potential for rotation and rebound [8] 2. Multiple catalysts from relaxed financial regulations and potential for increased trading sentiment from stablecoins [8] 3. Long-term value in brokerage firms, particularly top-tier firms, due to enhanced business leverage and low public fund allocation [8]

Group 1: Market Trends - In the early trading session, major funds saw net inflows in sectors such as defense, non-bank financials, and electronics, while there were net outflows in computer, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors, with the computer sector experiencing a net outflow exceeding 5.3 billion [1] - As of July 28, the Defense ETF (512670.SH) rose by 1.22%, and its associated index, the China Defense Index (399973.SZ), increased by 1.42% [1] Group 2: Military Equipment Developments - On July 21, the China Weapon Industry Group conducted a demonstration of unmanned and counter-unmanned combat systems, showcasing new combat capabilities in the unmanned domain [2] - Unmanned systems, particularly loitering munitions, are expected to play a crucial role in future combat, offering low-cost advantages and high lethality against valuable targets [2] Group 3: Investment Insights - In Q2 2025, active funds increased their allocation to military industry stocks, with an overweight increase of 0.35 percentage points from Q1, indicating a growing interest in military trade and new combat capabilities [3] - The military trade sector is anticipated to become a second growth driver, with significant performance potential in the context of recovering market conditions [3] - Key stocks in the military sector include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company, Guorui Technology, and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group, among others, which are expected to benefit from increased demand and investment [3][4]

Summary of Military Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The military industry is experiencing significant investment opportunities due to global geopolitical tensions and an arms race, particularly highlighted by China's military equipment performance in the India-Pakistan air conflict, which has increased international recognition of Chinese military products [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities**: The military sector is expected to benefit from increased order delivery tolerance from institutions, driven by geopolitical tensions and high-end equipment exports [1][2]. - **Market Events**: The upcoming 93rd anniversary military parade is anticipated to boost market activity, alongside the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the initiation of the 15th plan, which may lead to expedited orders [3][5]. - **Performance Metrics**: In the first half of 2025, the defense industry index outperformed the broader market, driven by a reversal in industry sentiment and concentrated order issuance [1][10]. - **Valuation Trends**: The military industry's valuation has risen to the 75th percentile, indicating potential for further growth, shifting from EPS-driven to PE-driven factors due to increased global asset allocation demand [8][21]. - **Contract Liabilities**: A 12.7% increase in contract liabilities in Q1 2025 suggests a pre-order phenomenon, indicating future performance improvements [11][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Geopolitical Context**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are expected to sustain demand for military equipment, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasing their defense budgets [19][16]. - **Technological Advancements**: The military sector is focusing on new combat capabilities, including unmanned systems and high-speed weapons, which are crucial for future military strategies [7][29]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Key investment areas include military trade exports, military electronics, and ammunition, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [5][30][31]. Future Outlook - The military industry is poised for continued growth, driven by strategic security asset allocation and the global expansion of Chinese military assets, particularly in the arms trade [21][22]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to clarify future directions for the military sector, enhancing market confidence and potentially leading to increased order flows [15][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the military industry conference call, highlighting the current landscape, investment opportunities, and future trends.

Core Viewpoint - The 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War will be marked by a grand military parade, showcasing China's military technology and strategic deterrence capabilities, indicating a sustained high demand in the military industry [1][2]. Group 1: Military Parade Highlights - The military parade will feature a combination of foot formations, equipment formations, and aerial teams, demonstrating the restructured military capabilities and the integration of various armed forces [1]. - The parade will include new-generation traditional weaponry alongside advanced combat forces such as unmanned systems, underwater operations, cyber warfare, and hypersonic technologies, all of which are domestically produced [2]. - Key characteristics of the displayed weaponry include systematic selection from various military branches, comprehensive coverage of military capabilities, and a focus on practical combat scenarios [2]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The military industry is expected to maintain a high level of demand due to increasing tensions in the Asia-Pacific region and the necessity for enhanced national defense investments [3]. - The goal of achieving a modernized weaponry system by 2027 will drive the acceleration of reforms and innovations within the military sector, particularly in phasing out outdated equipment [3]. - Future military spending is likely to focus more on aerospace and aviation sectors, given the existing gaps in capabilities compared to the U.S. [3].

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector in Hong Kong and A-shares is experiencing significant growth, driven by the anticipation of a military parade on September 3, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War, which is expected to enhance market attention and boost valuations in the military sector [6][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The military sector in the Hong Kong stock market has seen substantial gains, with Aerospace Holdings rising over 6% and China Shipbuilding Defense increasing over 5% [2][3]. - In the A-share market, various sub-sectors such as military equipment, military information technology, and military electronics have also performed strongly, with companies like Zhongke Haixun and Guorui Technology hitting the daily limit up [3][4]. Group 2: Upcoming Events - The military parade on September 3 is expected to showcase all domestically produced main battle equipment, highlighting China's defense technology and weaponry development capabilities [6][7]. - Historical trends indicate that major military parades often act as catalysts for the military stock market, enhancing public awareness and reinforcing national defense security consensus [6][7]. Group 3: Global Military Trade and Demand - The global military trade market is projected to reach $111.6 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.2%, where the U.S. holds a 37.9% market share and China accounts for approximately $3.22 billion (around 220 billion RMB) [10]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are accelerating global military trade demand, with expectations that China's military equipment market share could reach 15-20% by 2030, translating to a market demand of approximately 1500-2000 billion RMB annually [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The military industry is expected to maintain high growth due to robust order backlogs and accelerated production schedules, with the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan likely to further stimulate development [7][11]. - Increased global military spending, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, is anticipated to sustain demand in the military sector, benefiting upstream materials such as titanium alloys and tungsten [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant advancements in underwater combat capabilities, particularly focusing on the domestic unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) market, which has surpassed 10 billion yuan [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing large-scale underwater monitoring networks, such as seabed observation networks, and advanced towed sonar arrays, which are essential components in the new generation of underwater listening devices [1] - It notes that military UUVs and nuclear submarines are adopting more efficient and quieter advanced propulsion systems, identifying key domestic suppliers of these power systems [1]

Group 1: Institutional Trading Insights - On the institutional trading leaderboard, 23 stocks were listed, with 12 experiencing net buying and 11 facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were: Yuyin Co., Ltd. (CNY 76.91 million), Hainan Huatie (CNY 76.42 million), and Dazhihui (CNY 65.62 million) [1][2] Group 2: Hainan Huatie's Strategic Involvement - Hainan Huatie has become a co-organizer of the "WCS·2025 RWA Industry Conference," focusing on the digitalization of real-world assets (RWA) [2] - The conference aims to promote technological innovation, industry integration, and globalization practices, facilitating the deep integration of Web3 with the traditional economy [2] Group 3: RWA Industry Developments - The RWA sector is gaining traction, with companies like Jingbeifang and Chutianlong actively participating in blockchain and digital currency infrastructure [5] - RWA is seen as a bridge between real-world assets and Web3.0, enabling the transformation of tangible and intangible assets into digital tokens on the blockchain [5]