春节假期总结：历史最长春节假期驱动中长途客流增速高景气，票价良好增长 1)量端，国内游方面，根据交通运输部统计，2026除夕-正月初六全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 9.6%，其中铁路、民航客流各增长11.3%、7.7%。其中史上最长春节带动返乡+旅游，与中长途旅行相 关的民航、铁路显著改善;而邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖及海南封关带动琼州海峡客运量等推动水路客运 量同比增长29.8%;出入境游方面，据国家移民管理局，2026年春节假期日均出入境197.7万人次，较去 年春节假期日均增长10.1%。2)价端，根据DAST统计，春运前21天累计机票票价同比增长3.6%，预计 假期票价增速高于节前(2.22票价同比增长6.3%)。 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重，其中我国居民服务 消费对比海外具备较大提升潜力，有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手，金钱、时 间、供给侧约束都为政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲观预 期，该行建议重视2026年服务消费元年，伴随政策逐步向居民收入预期等传导，全年维度布局通胀预期 修复与细分景气两条 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in retail and catering data during the Spring Festival holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% in the first four days, which is expected to boost the social retail data for the first two months of the year [1][2][52] - The increase in cross-regional travel during the holiday period saw an 8.7% rise compared to the previous year, with water transport showing remarkable growth of 28.5%, influenced by tourism demand and the reopening of Hainan [3][12][54] - Price stability was observed in key sectors, with high-end liquor and hotel prices in popular small cities increasing, while prices in first-tier cities and movie ticket prices saw declines [4][16][55] Group 2 - Structural highlights in consumption include a strong performance in mid-to-high-end products like gold and duty-free items, with gold consumption remaining robust and duty-free sales in Hainan increasing by 20.9% [5][14][56] - Domestic and cross-border travel maintained momentum, with hotel accommodation transaction values rising by 32.7% and a predicted double-digit growth in daily inbound and outbound travelers at national ports [5][14][57] - The trend towards smart and health-oriented consumption was evident, with significant sales growth in smart wearable devices and organic foods during the holiday period [5][14][57] Group 3 - Weekly economic observations indicate a rebound in durable goods consumption, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 54% year-on-year in early February, contrasting with a decline of 13.9% in January [6][24] - Real estate sales showed improvement, with a 5% year-on-year increase in residential sales area in 27 cities as of mid-February, compared to a decline of 16% in January [6][25] - Export activities showed signs of recovery, with a 32.3% increase in the number of outbound port calls compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in trade [6][30]

Industry Overview - The global cruise passenger volume is projected to reach 37.7 million by 2025, representing a 106% increase from 2019, and is expected to further grow to 40 million by 2027. The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to be the main growth driver, with an average annual growth rate of 19.6%, and China is expected to contribute over half of the incremental growth [1] - As of December 2025, there are 76 cruise ships on order globally, with a total value of $82.4 billion (approximately 57.18 billion RMB), with deliveries planned until 2036. This indicates that the cruise industry will become one of the most capital-intensive and technologically advanced segments in the global shipping sector over the next decade [1] Major Cruise Operators Carnival Corporation & PLC - Carnival Corporation is the largest cruise operator globally, with 87 ships and a record revenue of $26.622 billion (approximately 184.7 billion RMB) for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2025, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase. The net profit reached $2.876 billion, up 50.1% year-on-year, with a passenger capacity of 13.6 million and an occupancy rate of 105% [9] Royal Caribbean Group - Royal Caribbean Group is the second-largest cruise operator, with 69 ships and a projected revenue of $17.935 billion in 2025, alongside a net profit of $4.268 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.8% and 48.35%, respectively. The company has multiple new ship orders, including the sixth Edge series ship and the fifth Icon class ship, both scheduled for delivery in 2028 [7] MSC Cruises - MSC Cruises, the third-largest cruise brand, has signed orders for multiple new ships, including five "World" class LNG dual-fuel luxury ships, with a total investment of nearly €7 billion. The company has also partnered with Meyer Werft for the construction of 4+2 New Frontier class luxury ships, valued at €10 billion, with annual deliveries starting in 2030 [5] Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) has three major brands and has signed the largest new ship order in its history with Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri for eight new-generation ships. The company also has additional orders for luxury ships under its Regent Seven Seas brand, with plans for delivery in 2033 [3] Market Share and Orders - The four major cruise groups—Carnival, Royal Caribbean, MSC, and Norwegian—collectively hold over 80% of the global order value. Carnival has 8 ships on order valued at $11.3 billion, Royal Caribbean has 11 ships worth $14 billion, MSC has orders potentially exceeding €15.4 billion, and NCLH has 16 ships valued at $19 billion [10]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's major ports reported impressive performance, with container throughput exceeding 10 million TEUs at nine ports, including Suzhou Port and Beibu Gulf Port [1][5][8] - The growth rate of container throughput was particularly notable, with 26 ports achieving double-digit growth, including 18 inland ports [1][5] Group 1: Port Performance - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port maintained its position as the world's busiest port, achieving a cargo throughput of 143,192 million tons in 2025, a 4.0% increase year-on-year [5][6] - Shanghai Port led in container throughput with 5,506 million TEUs, marking its 16th consecutive year at the top globally [7][8] - Suzhou Port and Beibu Gulf Port reached container throughput of 1,021 million TEUs and 1,006 million TEUs, respectively, contributing to the expansion of ports exceeding 10 million TEUs [1][8] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The rapid growth in trade and a dense network of shipping routes supported Ningbo-Zhoushan Port's status, with Zhejiang Province's total import and export value reaching 5.55 trillion yuan, a 5.4% increase [5][6] - Suzhou Port's rise is attributed to its strategic location along the Yangtze River and its connections to key industries, particularly automotive exports [8][9] - Beibu Gulf Port's container throughput grew from 2.28 million TEUs in 2017 to 1,006 million TEUs in 2025, benefiting from the development of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [9] Group 3: Future Developments - In 2026, ports are expected to accelerate the construction of shipping networks and increase international routes, with Qingdao Port opening four new container routes in January [10][11] - The government reports from coastal provinces emphasize the development of new consumption models, including cruise and yacht tourism, as part of the economic strategy [11][12] - The yacht economy is highlighted as a growing sector, with significant increases in yacht registrations and government initiatives to promote yacht consumption [12][13]

Group 1: Development Goals and Framework - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has set the annual development goals centered on "two guarantees and two strives" for 2026, marking a shift towards quality and efficiency in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [4] - The total assets of central enterprises have surpassed 95 trillion yuan, with R&D investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan for four consecutive years, indicating a focus on quality-driven growth [8] - The framework aims to guide state capital towards strategic security, public welfare, and emerging industries, providing a clear action plan for reform and development [4] Group 2: Industry Integration and Collaboration - In 2025, the restructuring of central enterprises will follow a dual-track approach, focusing on strategic formation of new central enterprises and multi-field professional integration [13] - The establishment of new central enterprises, such as China Yajiang Group and China Chang'an Automobile Group, aims to serve national macro strategies and enhance industry collaboration [14] - A total of 17 units signed agreements in key areas like artificial intelligence and new materials, creating a multi-party collaborative model involving central enterprises, private enterprises, and local governments [16] Group 3: Capital Investment and Fund Management - The total scale of the China Chengtong fund system reached 710 billion yuan, with 97.99% allocated to strategic emerging industries, demonstrating a strong focus on high-tech sectors [18] - The National Investment Group manages 61 funds with a total scale of 345.1 billion yuan, having invested in 1,249 projects and facilitated 293 companies going public [20] - The investment strategy emphasizes long-term support for innovative enterprises, with over two-thirds of funds directed towards private enterprises [20] Group 4: Resource Integration and Security - Central enterprises are undergoing intensive integration in key mineral sectors, such as iron ore and rare earths, to enhance resource control and pricing power [24] - The integration aims to create a closed-loop industry chain, improving domestic supply security and reducing reliance on imports [25] - This strategic move is seen as a vital step in ensuring national resource security and enhancing the global influence of China's mineral resources [24]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has introduced a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, emphasizing the importance of service consumption in driving high-quality economic development [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The work plan aims to optimize and expand service supply, with a focus on developing specific support policies for sectors such as home services, automotive aftermarket, and performing arts [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce will establish a "1+N" policy system to support the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, implementing tailored policies for over ten specific areas [2]. Group 2: Quality Improvement and Consumer Benefits - An action plan will be developed to enhance service quality and benefit consumers, featuring over 60 specific measures targeting both supply and demand sides [3]. - The plan includes initiatives to improve service levels in cultural entertainment, tourism, and sports events [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and New Consumption Models - The Ministry of Transport plans to foster new growth points in transportation service consumption, including the development of a high-quality car rental service network and the expansion of yacht and cruise consumption [4][5]. - There will be a focus on enhancing charging facilities at highway service areas, with a target of building over 10,000 charging stations by 2026, including at least 25% high-power chargers [4]. Group 4: Sports and Entertainment Consumption - The sports sector is expected to see significant consumer engagement, with ski resorts projected to attract 118 million visitors and generate a total consumption of 69.15 billion yuan during the 2025-2026 winter season [6]. - The network audiovisual sector is projected to reach a market size of nearly one trillion yuan by 2025, driven by the popularity of micro-short dramas [6][7]. Group 5: International Consumption and Tourism - The Ministry of Commerce is working to enhance the international consumption environment, with a target of 82.04 million inbound travelers by 2025, reflecting a 26.4% year-on-year increase [7]. - The growth of duty-free shopping is highlighted, with a 95.9% increase in sales of duty-free goods, and nearly 13,000 duty-free stores expected by the end of 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Walt Disney Company reported record revenue of $10 billion in its first fiscal quarter, driven by strong performance in its parks and cruise segments, exceeding sales and profit expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's overall sales and profits surpassed expectations, primarily due to the parks and cruise segment [1] - The parks and cruise segment, led by Josh D'Amaro, generated a profit of $3.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6% [1] - The entertainment segment's profit fell by over one-third to $1.1 billion, impacted by reduced political advertising revenue and marketing costs related to "Avatar: The Way of Water" [1] Group 2: Segment Analysis - The sports segment's profit decreased by 23% to $191 million, attributed to rising broadcasting rights fees for NBA and college sports events [1] - Increased visitor numbers and spending, along with the addition of new cruise ships, contributed to the parks department's profit growth [1]

2026 年 02 月 02 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/02/02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 社会服务 | 4.2% | 4.9% | 17.5% | | 沪深 300 | -0.5% | -0.7% | 20.7% | 投资要点: 1 服务业政策加码：2026.1.25，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新 增长点工作方案》，围绕交通、旅居、入境消费等文旅出行核心赛道， 从供给扩容、场景创新与金融支持等多维度系统推进服务消费提质扩容。 政策明确推进铁路旅游化改造、银发旅游专列建设，支持邮轮、游艇、 夜游船等产品升级并培育旅居目的地；同步加码入境消费便利化，推进 签证在线办理全球覆盖、优化涉外支付与离境退税服务；在汽车后市场 与出行方式上，探索改装分级管理、经典车认定体系建设，并强化房车 露营基地、自驾游与租赁网络配套；同时推动家政服务职业化、规模化 与智慧化升级，拓展居家养老服务并培育行业龙头；在演出、体育等体 验式消费领域，实施包容审慎监管并强化财政金融支持，明确支持服务 消费企 ...

Core Insights - The "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" was officially released, focusing on transportation, housekeeping, and travel services, proposing 12 key support policies to meet residents' high-quality and diverse service consumption needs [1] Group 1: Transportation Services - The plan emphasizes niche areas such as tourist trains, cruise ships, and night boats, proposing the development of specialized tourist routes and immersive, diversified cruise products, aligning with the current "slow travel" trend [3] Group 2: Housekeeping Services - In response to the growing demand for specialized services like home cooking, wardrobe organization, deep cleaning, infant care, and elderly care, the plan supports qualified housekeeping service companies in innovating service models and exploring smart scenarios [5] Group 3: Network Audio-Visual Services - The plan calls for promoting orderly competition and innovative development in the network audio-visual service sector, including micro-short dramas and ultra-high-definition video, to enrich the supply of quality content [8] Group 4: Travel Services - The policy proposes cultivating a number of travel destination cities (regions) and guiding localities to develop specialized travel markets [10] Group 5: Automotive Aftermarket Services - The policy encourages hosting related events and activities in the automotive aftermarket, which includes RV camping, automotive competitions, and self-driving tours, to create innovative projects that integrate automotive, tourism, culture, and sports [12] Group 6: Inbound Consumption - To further unleash the potential of inbound consumption, the policy requires the creation of the "Shopping in China" brand, the cultivation of international consumption aggregation areas, the increase of tax refund stores for outbound travelers, and the enhancement of convenience for foreign consumers in China [16] Group 7: Support and Assurance - The policy also proposes strengthening support measures, including improving standards and credit systems in relevant fields, enhancing financial support, and guiding financial institutions to increase support for entities operating in new growth areas of service consumption [18]

Core Insights - The "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" was officially released on January 29, focusing on innovative business models, rapid growth, and strong driving effects in the service consumption sector [1][17] - The plan outlines 12 key measures aimed at continuously releasing the potential of service consumption and activating the endogenous power of economic development [1] Group 1: Key Measures - The plan targets six major areas of service consumption: transportation services, housekeeping services, online audio-visual services, travel and residence services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption, proposing policies to optimize service supply and promote innovation [1][12] - It emphasizes the development of performance services, sports event services, and experiential services, suggesting the establishment of incentive mechanisms and the cultivation of quality brands [3][16] - The plan includes strengthening support and guarantees, such as improving standards and credit systems, enhancing financial support, and guiding financial institutions to increase support for service consumption growth areas [7][20] Group 2: Economic Impact - Experts believe that expanding and upgrading service consumption will better promote the high-quality development of the service industry, stabilize employment, and increase residents' income, creating a virtuous cycle from employment to consumption [5][16] - The service consumption sector is showing strong growth, with retail service revenue expected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year by 2025, outpacing goods retail growth by 1.7 percentage points [18][22] - The integration of various service sectors, such as food, culture, and tourism, along with the deep empowerment of artificial intelligence and digital technology, is expected to enhance the quality and accessibility of services [20][22]