Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (中通快递) - **Period**: Q2 2025 Key Industry Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a **17.3% year-over-year growth** in Q2 2025, indicating robust market dynamics [2][3]. - ZTO's parcel volume grew by **16.5%**, reaching **9.85 billion parcels**, slightly below the industry average [2][3]. Financial Performance - ZTO's **adjusted net income** was **RMB 2.05 billion**, reflecting a **26.8% decrease** due to intense market competition and price declines [2][14]. - **Total revenue** increased by **10.3%** to **RMB 11.8 billion**, driven by volume growth despite a **4.7% decline** in average selling price (ASP) [14]. - **Total cost of revenue** rose to **RMB 8.9 billion**, marking a **25.1% increase** from the previous year [14]. - **Gross profit** decreased by **18.7%**, with a gross margin drop of **8.9 points** to **24.9%** [14][15]. Operational Strategies - ZTO focused on **optimizing volume structure**, which contributed **RMB 0.17** in revenue and **RMB 0.02** in gross profit per unit for the core express delivery business [2][6]. - **Digitization and intelligent operations** led to a **RMB 0.07** per unit cost reduction in transportation and sortation [2][7]. - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through: 1. Optimizing network policies and costs [8][11]. 2. Deploying automation in sorting and transportation [8]. 3. Engaging with scattered parcel customers to increase revenue [8]. 4. Strengthening digital operations for efficient resource allocation [8]. Market Trends - A shift towards **light and small parcels** was noted, with more merchants opting for economical delivery services [4]. - ZTO's retail parcel volume grew over **50% year-over-year**, now accounting for over **8%** of total volume [5]. Future Outlook - ZTO revised its annual guidance for parcel volume growth to **14% to 18%**, lower than initial expectations [15]. - The company anticipates that **pricing dynamics** and **macroeconomic uncertainties** will impact future growth [15]. - ZTO remains confident in the long-term growth prospects of China's logistics industry, emphasizing the importance of **digitalization** and **intelligent operations** [9][13]. Technological Advancements - ZTO has integrated **AI tools** across various business segments, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [16][19]. - The implementation of a **3D digital twin model** at central hubs has reduced management personnel by one-third and decreased error rates by over **60%** [17][18]. Pricing and Competition - Recent price adjustments in the industry are viewed as a **rational return** to sustainable pricing, with the lowest price in Guangdong now at **RMB 1.40** per unit [22][32]. - The company expects a more stable pricing environment moving forward, driven by rational market behavior [23][29]. Shareholder Returns - ZTO plans to maintain robust shareholder returns, considering both dividends and share repurchases [26][28]. Conclusion - ZTO Express is navigating a competitive landscape with a focus on operational efficiency, technological integration, and strategic pricing adjustments to ensure sustainable growth and shareholder value amidst evolving market conditions [10][34].

（图片来源：摄图网） 在电商订单量以年均20%增速狂飙、人力成本年均上涨8%的当下，物流行业正经历着前所未有的效率焦虑 与成本阵痛。无人驾驶物流车正悄然崛起，成为推动行业变革的重要力量。 劳动力短缺危机在物流领域尤为凸显。国家邮政局数据显示，2024年快递行业日均业务量突破5亿件，但一 线从业人员数量较三年前下降12%。无人驾驶物流车以7×24小时连续作业能力，在末端配送环节展现出惊人 效能。京东物流在雄安新区的试点中，无人配送车日均处理订单量达传统模式的3倍，单票配送成本下降 45%。 政策东风为技术落地按下加速键。2024年末发布的《关于加快建设统一开放的交通运输市场的意见》，明确 将自动驾驶纳入智能交通先导应用试点。北京亦庄、上海嘉定等20余个城市相继开放全无人测试道路，为技 术迭代提供了丰富的场景数据。 | 2020年3月 | 2023年3月 | 2023年11月 | 2024年11月 | 2024年12月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0- | OL | C | OL | 0 | | · 《关于促进道路交通自 | | | | | | 动器驶技术发展和应用 | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the unmanned logistics industry, highlighting a significant growth potential in the coming years [4]. Core Insights - The unmanned logistics sector is poised for explosive growth in 2025, driven by favorable policies, technological advancements, and economic viability. The market is expected to see sales surpassing 30,000 units in 2025, with a penetration rate exceeding 1.2% [4][41]. - The industry is characterized by a dual revenue model of vehicle sales and operational services, with a projected market size of 245 billion yuan for vehicle sales and 413.4 billion yuan for operational services by 2030 [4]. - Key players in the market include Jiushi and New Stone, which together hold over 80% market share and are expanding their operations both domestically and internationally [4]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Market Readiness - The unmanned logistics market is ready for a breakthrough, with applications primarily in short-distance transportation (3-100 km) within urban areas, potentially replacing 2.1 million light commercial vehicles [4]. - The report emphasizes that the combination of policy support, mature L4 autonomous driving technology, and reduced costs makes 2025 a pivotal year for sales growth [4]. Part 2: Focus on Unmanned Logistics Companies - The operational profit margins for unmanned logistics companies are substantial, with a projected sales volume of over 30,000 units in 2025 and a growth rate of 207% expected in 2026 [4]. - The report identifies Jiushi and New Stone as industry leaders, with Jiushi's new model priced at 19,800 yuan, significantly disrupting the market [4]. Part 3: Mainstream Companies Driving Growth - The report highlights the strong momentum of mainstream companies that are leveraging both vehicle sales and operational services to drive growth [4]. - Jiushi and New Stone are leading the charge, with extensive coverage across over 200 cities and plans for significant international expansion [4]. Part 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on unmanned logistics companies such as Wenyan Zhixing and Jinlong Automobile, as well as potential IPO candidates like Jiushi and New Stone [4]. - Additionally, it suggests looking into companies benefiting from autonomous driving technologies, including Sutech, Hesai Technology, and Desay SV [4].