(一)美联储降息原因分析 2025年前三季度，美国经济形势严峻，通胀率持续高企，失业率逐月上升。2025年9月美国失业率达 4.4%，通货膨胀率达3%。如何在抑制通胀的同时扩大就业，货币政策面临两难困境。当时美联储对就 业疲软的担忧大于对通胀上行的担忧，担心劳动力市场疲软会通过消费渠道拖累经济。实际上，2025年 第一季度美国经济增速下行至-0.6%，为2022年以来最低水平。为了增加就业、推动经济恢复，自2025 年9月起，美联储连续三次降低联邦基金利率，向市场发出货币政策宽松的信号。 全球货币政策正在走向拐点。主要发达经济体中央银行降息周期已经接近尾声，2026年此轮货币政策宽 松即将落下帷幕。世界经济和国际金融市场不确定性上升。 美国经济恢复加快，美联储降息预期减弱 2025年12月10日，美联储宣布了2025年最后一次议息决议，再次下调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点， 从4%-3.75%下调至3.75%-3.5%。符合市场预期。这是2025年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月此轮降息周 期开启以来美联储第六次降息。 (二)美联储货币政策走向 目前美国经济正在发生一些积极变化。2025年11月以来发布的一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "super central bank week" highlighted a divergence in monetary policies among major economies, with Japan raising interest rates while the US and UK opted for cuts, reflecting differing economic fundamentals and impacting global capital flows [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, marking its first rate hike in 11 months [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both cut rates by 25 basis points, with the Fed lowering its target range to 3.50% to 3.75% and the Bank of England reducing its rate to 3.75% [2][3]. - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its key rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2.00%, main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending rate at 2.40% [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The divergence in monetary policy reflects the differences in economic fundamentals and policy goals among countries, significantly affecting global capital flows [3][6]. - The OECD report suggests that the space for further rate cuts among major economies is limited, with expectations that the easing cycle will conclude by the end of 2026 [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts believe that the impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike will be limited, as the market had already priced in the increase, and the scale of carry trades has decreased over the past year [4]. - The potential for a repeat of last year's market turmoil following Japan's rate hike is considered low, with the current focus on US factors driving global liquidity and asset pricing [4][6]. - The outlook for Japan's monetary policy indicates a continued tightening trend, although challenges remain in balancing inflation control and economic support [6].