Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is entering a critical phase of adjustment and repricing after a significant sell-off, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain above $70,000, indicating that the market has not yet reached a true macro bottom [1][2] Market Sentiment - Investor appetite for risk assets is diminishing, leading to increased expectations for Bitcoin to retrace to psychological price levels of $60,000 or even $50,000 [1][2] - Current market fluctuations are seen more as a cleanup of leveraged positions rather than the beginning of a new bull market [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the U.S. January CPI data is viewed as a key indicator of inflation persistence, which could significantly impact digital asset volatility [3] - There is a high probability (82%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, influenced by the new leadership's potentially hawkish stance [3] On-Chain Data - Recent on-chain data shows an unusual increase in miner transfers to exchanges, with a single-day inflow of 24,000 BTC on February 5, marking a peak for 2024 [2][4] - This significant inflow typically indicates that miners are hedging risks or taking profits, adding additional selling pressure to the market [4] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is undergoing a complex "bottom-seeking" process, with the DXY dollar index potentially mirroring the rotation logic of 2021, setting the stage for Bitcoin to reach a "ultimate peak" of $146,000 in the long term [4] - In the short term, the market must first navigate extreme pressure testing in the $50,000 range before any significant recovery can occur [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to weaken further, despite forex traders being vigilant about potential government intervention [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Rinto Maruyama, a strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Securities, suggests that if authorities remain passive regarding the current weakness of the yen, or if concerns about fiscal expansion increase, investor vigilance towards yen appreciation may diminish [1] - There seems to be a market consensus that the USD/JPY exchange rate still has an upward bias, despite ongoing speculation about intervention [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market is expected to rise due to a weaker yen boosting profit growth expectations, although technology-related stocks may underperform the market following a decline in U.S. tech stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nikkei index futures rose by 0.3% in Singapore, reaching 54,610 points [1][2]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate is at 156.84 yen, compared to 156.27 yen at the close of Tokyo's stock market on Wednesday [1][2]. - The Nikkei index fell by 0.8% on Wednesday, closing at 54,293.36 points [1][2]. Group 2: Company Focus - Investors are closely watching earnings reports, with Sony Group and NTT Inc. scheduled to announce their results later on Thursday [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent depreciation of the Japanese yen has increased the likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next month [1] Group 1 - The former Bank of Japan board member, Mr. Kuroda, indicated that the weakening yen is a significant factor influencing monetary policy decisions [1]