1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic sector in the macro and financial area is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global economic upward direction remains unchanged despite the potential significant increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East after the US raid on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] 3. Summary of Key Points Based on the Catalog Important Information - President Trump claimed that Iran's key uranium - enrichment facilities were "completely destroyed" and that the strike on Iranian nuclear facilities was a "huge military victory" [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to punish the US severely and stated that every US citizen and military personnel in the Middle East was a "legitimate target" [1] - Elon Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big - bang" and an "AI tsunami" is coming, predicting that AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [1] - The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [1] - Japan's core inflation rate in May climbed to 3.7%, the highest since January 2023, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - The CEO of X revealed that users will soon be able to invest and trade on the X platform, and the company is exploring launching X - branded credit or debit cards [1] - Citi analysis shows that if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for months, oil prices could reach $90 per barrel, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase but will be short - lived [1] Global Economic Logic - The US raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has significantly escalated Middle East geopolitical risks, and the upward momentum of crude oil prices may far exceed expectations [1] - A phased framework agreement between China and the US has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion [1] - The Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing prosperity [1] - If crude oil prices skyrocket, the global inflation transmission caused by the increase in oil prices will take time. The global economic upward trend remains unchanged [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid the continued escalation of the Middle - East situation with a high probability of US military involvement, the market risk preference is decreasing, and A - shares should continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese assets [47] - The surge in crude oil prices has pushed the world into an inflation shock mode [44] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, the market risk preference declined, and growth - style indices mainly adjusted. In the defensive mode, the bank ETF reached a new high in this round [7][10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Events - The Middle - East situation is escalating, with a high probability of US military involvement. Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [13][53] - Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big bang", and an "AI tsunami" is coming. AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [13][53] - According to Citi analysis, if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for several months, oil prices may reach $90 per barrel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase, but the blockade will be short - lived [13][53] China's Economic Data - In May, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues large - scale investment in emerging and future industries [14] - In May, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining medium - to - high - speed growth [17] - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized [20] - In May, the monthly value of retail sales of consumer goods was 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating continuous improvement in consumption [22] - In May, the monthly value of China's above - scale express delivery volume was 17.32 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.2% [25] - In May, the monthly output of industrial robots was 69,000 units, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 34.1% [27] - In May, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 42.4 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [29] - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 vehicles, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both hitting new highs [31] US Economic Data - In April, US retail and food sales were $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, showing strong US consumption [33] - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [35] - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US core CPI was 2.8% (same as the previous value), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [38] - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [40] European Economic Data - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost German and Eurozone manufacturing [42] Investment and Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the high probability of US military involvement, the investment advice for A - shares is to continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - For stock index option trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks, option suggestions are suspended [13][53]