Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IH, IF, IM, IC in the macro and financial and stock index sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3,500 points and is expected to break through. The photovoltaic sector, a flag of anti - involution, led the gains. The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [1][2]. - Anti - involution key industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc. High - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025, reaching a record high [1][2]. - Global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,500 points again. The turnover of the two markets was 1.45 trillion yuan, showing increasing volume on the rise. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices all rose, with increases of 1.27%, 1.31%, 0.84%, and 0.57% respectively. Among industry and theme ETFs, photovoltaic ETFs, communication ETFs, etc. led the gains, while green power ETFs, power ETFs, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 9.8 billion, 4.8 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan respectively in the precipitation funds [1]. Important Information - Huachuang Securities believes that key anti - involution industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc., and the anti - involution measures are mainly industry self - regulation, administrative guidance, and public opinion supervision [1]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, Chinese on - shore and off - shore listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends, and the dividend payout ratio of Chinese listed companies reached 39% last year [1]. - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were issued, with a single - product limit of 300 million yuan each, and all 10 products were sold out on the first day [1]. - Google's Omar Shams believes that energy supply is the key constraint for the long - term development of AI, and China's annual new power generation capacity exceeds the sum of the UK and France [1]. - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Passenger car exports were 480,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The production of new energy passenger cars reached 1.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.0% [1]. - Analysts expect the profit growth rate of US stocks in the second quarter to slow down significantly from 12% in the first quarter to 4%. The impact of tariffs has become a market focus [1]. Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1. The US will impose reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries from August 1, 2025, which is beneficial to China's exports. Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a record - high 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Future Outlook - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. Trading Strategy - For futures direction trading, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. - For stock index option trading, it is recommended to buy long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options on stock indices as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2].

Group 1 - Trump's tariff threats target BRICS nations, claiming they promote anti-American policies, but this move has inadvertently strengthened China's position [2] - The tariffs aim to suppress China's high-tech industries, including electric vehicles and semiconductors, but historical evidence shows that U.S. restrictions often catalyze technological advancements in China [4] - BRICS countries are collaborating to create a "de-Americanized" supply chain, with agreements like the digital trade recognition pact between China, Russia, and India facilitating data exchange and bypassing U.S. tech dominance [4][6] Group 2 - The appeal of the BRICS bloc is growing, with countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt seeking membership due to the unreliability of the U.S. market and the attractiveness of China's vast market and investment opportunities [6] - BRICS nations now account for 35% of global GDP, surpassing the G7's 30%, and control significant resources in energy, food, and manufacturing, countering U.S. isolation efforts [6] - The U.S. is facing a potential shift in global economic power, as countries increasingly move towards de-dollarization, with Russia's de-dollarization rate exceeding 80% and India using the rupee for oil purchases [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid the continued escalation of the Middle - East situation with a high probability of US military involvement, the market risk preference is decreasing, and A - shares should continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese assets [47] - The surge in crude oil prices has pushed the world into an inflation shock mode [44] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, the market risk preference declined, and growth - style indices mainly adjusted. In the defensive mode, the bank ETF reached a new high in this round [7][10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Events - The Middle - East situation is escalating, with a high probability of US military involvement. Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [13][53] - Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big bang", and an "AI tsunami" is coming. AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [13][53] - According to Citi analysis, if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for several months, oil prices may reach $90 per barrel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase, but the blockade will be short - lived [13][53] China's Economic Data - In May, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues large - scale investment in emerging and future industries [14] - In May, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining medium - to - high - speed growth [17] - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized [20] - In May, the monthly value of retail sales of consumer goods was 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating continuous improvement in consumption [22] - In May, the monthly value of China's above - scale express delivery volume was 17.32 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.2% [25] - In May, the monthly output of industrial robots was 69,000 units, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 34.1% [27] - In May, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 42.4 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [29] - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 vehicles, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both hitting new highs [31] US Economic Data - In April, US retail and food sales were $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, showing strong US consumption [33] - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [35] - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US core CPI was 2.8% (same as the previous value), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [38] - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [40] European Economic Data - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost German and Eurozone manufacturing [42] Investment and Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the high probability of US military involvement, the investment advice for A - shares is to continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - For stock index option trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks, option suggestions are suspended [13][53]

Group 1 - Zhongke Shuguang (603019) and Haiguang Information (688041) announced a major asset restructuring plan to strengthen their core businesses and seize opportunities in the information technology industry [1] - The restructuring involves Haiguang Information planning to merge with Zhongke Shuguang through a share exchange, which will enhance their market position in the semiconductor industry [1] - The combined entity is expected to capture 53.6% of the domestic server chip market and 30% of the system integration market, creating a significant competitive advantage over rivals like Huawei and Cambrian [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is currently in a recovery phase, benefiting from a rebound in the consumer electronics market and the initiation of a new growth cycle [2] - The integration of AI and semiconductor technologies is anticipated to create new growth points for the industry, with a focus on investment opportunities in the AI + semiconductor sector [2] - The domestic semiconductor sector is expected to see a positive feedback loop of valuation enhancement, confidence improvement, and increased capital inflow, contributing to the stability of the capital market and economic operations [2] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Semiconductor Chip Index (980017) include companies like Cambrian, Zhongxin International, and Haiguang Information, collectively accounting for 67.82% of the index [3]