在特朗普再次发起关税威胁并加大强权施压的背景下，欧盟展现出前所未有的强硬态度，开始不再一味妥协。决定暂停美欧贸易协议的审批，并一口气推出 了930亿欧元的反制清单，全力推进防务、供应链的多元化以及欧元国际化的自主进程。从经贸规则到战略布局，欧洲正在加速与美国拉开距离，美欧同盟 的裂痕越来越显著。而去美化和战略自主，已经成为欧洲的一股不可逆转的趋势。 欧盟向脱钩发起进攻，在最高法院裁定特朗普的关税政策非法后，欧盟没有丝毫迟疑，立即采取了果断行动。当天，欧盟就公开要求美国全额退还之前多征 收的关税，态度强硬到几乎没有任何妥协的空间。欧洲议会国际贸易委员会的主席明确指出，仅德国的企业和美国进口商可能就为此多缴纳了超过1000亿欧 元的关税，这笔钱，必须如数退还。 虽然这一数字可能略显夸张，但足以反映欧盟的不满情绪。欧盟并非口头发泄，而是采取了实际行动，欧盟委员会发布了措辞严厉的声明，强调协议即是协 议，要求美国政府遵守双方去年达成的贸易框架协议。同时，欧盟给了美方一个明确的时限，要求美国政府明确告知，裁决之后会采取哪些具体措施，而不 是再继续含糊其辞、出尔反尔。 去年7月，双方就已达成协议，美国承诺对大多数欧盟商品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department's TIC report reveals a significant reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by major foreign creditors, indicating a shift in investment strategies and potential concerns regarding U.S. economic policies [1][3]. Group 1: Major Foreign Holders' Actions - In December 2025, 14 major countries and regions collectively reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings by $88.4 billion, bringing the total foreign holdings down to $9.27 trillion [1][3]. - The top three foreign holders—Japan, the United Kingdom, and China—each decreased their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Japan reducing by $17.2 billion to $1.1855 trillion, the UK by $23 billion to $866 billion, and China by $0.4 billion to $683.5 billion, marking its lowest level since 2008 [3][4]. - Other notable reductions included Norway ($10.8 billion), France ($7.2 billion), and several countries like the Cayman Islands, Switzerland, and Germany, each reducing their holdings by over $6 billion [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - Despite a net buying trend from overseas investors, there is a noticeable structural shift, with significant sell-offs from entities like Denmark's pension fund and the Netherlands' largest pension fund, raising market concerns [4]. - The U.S. Treasury market is under pressure due to factors such as the rapid expansion of federal debt, ambiguous Federal Reserve policies, and ongoing trade threats from the Trump administration [4]. - There is a growing trend of diversification away from U.S. assets, with capital flowing to other regions, as indicated by comments from investment leaders seeking to reduce U.S. bond exposure [7]. Group 3: Shift to Alternative Assets - Gold is increasingly becoming a focal point for global central bank reserves, with the International Monetary Fund reporting a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves below 60%, the lowest in decades [7]. - In 2025, global central bank gold purchases remained high, with official institutions adding 863 tons of gold, and approximately 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings in the future [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department's TIC report reveals a significant reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by major foreign creditors, indicating a shift in investment strategies and potential concerns regarding U.S. economic policies [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings Reduction - In December 2025, 14 major countries and regions collectively reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings by $88.4 billion, bringing the total foreign holdings down to $9.27 trillion [1]. - The top three foreign holders—Japan, the United Kingdom, and China—each decreased their Treasury holdings, with Japan reducing by $17.2 billion to $1.1855 trillion, the UK by $23 billion to $866 billion, and China by $0.4 billion to $683.5 billion, marking its lowest level since 2008 [3][4]. Group 2: Broader Market Trends - The overall reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is attributed to factors such as the rapid expansion of federal debt, unclear Federal Reserve policy, and ongoing trade tensions under the Trump administration [5]. - Despite a net buying trend from foreign investors, there is a notable structural divergence, with significant sell-offs from entities like Denmark's pension fund and the Netherlands' largest pension fund, raising market concerns [5]. Group 3: Shift in Investment Preferences - U.S. Treasury Secretary has countered "de-dollarization" claims, asserting that U.S. economic policies enhance its status as a global capital destination [6]. - Investment managers indicate that geopolitical instability has not led to a mass sell-off of U.S. assets, but there is a growing trend towards diversifying investments away from U.S. assets, described as a "quiet" sell-off of U.S. bonds [6]. - Gold is increasingly becoming a focus for global central bank reserves, with the IMF reporting that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%, the lowest in decades [6].

Core Viewpoint - The December 2025 TIC report reveals significant reductions in U.S. Treasury holdings by major foreign holders, indicating a shift in investment strategies among global investors [1][2]. Group 1: Major Foreign Holders' Actions - In December 2025, 14 major countries and regions collectively reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings by $88.4 billion, bringing the total foreign holdings down to $9.27 trillion [2]. - The top three foreign holders—Japan, the United Kingdom, and China—each decreased their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Japan reducing by $17.2 billion to $1.1855 trillion, the UK by $23 billion to $866 billion, and China by $0.4 billion to $683.5 billion, marking its lowest level since 2008 [3][4]. Group 2: Broader Market Implications - The overall reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is attributed to factors such as the rapid expansion of federal debt, ambiguous Federal Reserve policies, and ongoing trade tensions under the Trump administration [5]. - Despite a net buying trend from overseas investors, there is a notable structural divergence, with significant sell-offs from entities like Denmark's pension fund and the Netherlands' largest pension fund, raising concerns in the market [5]. Group 3: Shift in Investment Preferences - U.S. Treasury securities are facing pressure as global investors seek diversification, with some describing the trend as a "quiet" sell-off of U.S. bonds [6]. - There is a growing preference for gold among central banks, with the IMF reporting that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%, the lowest in decades, while central banks increased gold purchases by 863 tons in 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the US dollar amidst stable performance in US equity and bond markets indicates that international investors are increasing their hedging against depreciation rather than selling off US assets [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by approximately 2% in January, marking its worst monthly performance since June of the previous year and nearing a four-year low [1][3]. - Concerns over renewed trade tensions due to President Trump's attempts to acquire Greenland and rumors of intervention to support the yen are contributing factors to the dollar's decline [1][3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Federated Hermes' Senior Portfolio Manager John Sidawi noted that foreign investors appear to be hedging their US holdings instead of directly selling them, which is a key consideration for the company's bearish outlook on the dollar [1][3]. - Observers suggest that the divergence between rising US stocks and bonds and the declining dollar is due to investors purchasing derivatives to hedge against further depreciation of the dollar [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Sidawi anticipates that the current trend will continue to exert pressure on the dollar through 2026, potentially leading to deeper questions about the long-term value of this major global reserve currency [2][5]. - If the dollar's weakness persists into the following year, it may indicate a weakening of the dollar's long-standing dominance [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by rising international gold prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to regional risks and central bank gold purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 29, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) surged by 4.66%, with notable gains from stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (up 16.15%), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (up 10.06%), and China Gold (up 10.02%) [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) increased by 3.76%, with the latest price reported at 2.6 yuan [1]. Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Year-to-date, international gold prices have been on the rise, reaching a peak of $5,560.9 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1]. - Longjiang Securities attributes the support for gold prices to escalating regional risks, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and a rebound in gold ETF holdings [1]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The current macroeconomic environment is shifting from a "single rate cut trade" to a multi-faceted approach characterized by "de-Americanization, regional premiums, and revaluation of monetary credit" [1]. - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Gold, collectively accounting for 63.58% of the index [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the logic for rising gold prices will continue due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, weakening dollar credit, and central bank gold purchases [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On December 11, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, and has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points this year [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements during the press conference were generally dovish, contributing to expectations of further rate cuts [1] - The rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and marginal liquidity easing are likely to support gold prices [1] Group 2: Economic and Market Context - Former President Trump has called for the next Federal Reserve chair to lower rates during economic upturns, criticizing the current market logic that "good news is bad for the stock market" [1] - Trump emphasized that lower rates benefit the stock market, economy, and housing affordability, suggesting that stock market gains could significantly boost GDP [1] - Fed Governor Michelle W. Milan warned that not continuing rate cuts next year could risk a recession, although the short-term probability of economic downturn remains low [1] Group 3: Global Economic Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. has led to trade disputes with multiple countries, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and concerns over U.S. debt credit, which may drive global central banks and investors to increase their gold holdings [1] - The ongoing process of "de-Americanization" is expected to impact global order and the credit currency system, revealing a long-term logic for rising gold prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IH, IF, IM, IC in the macro and financial and stock index sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3,500 points and is expected to break through. The photovoltaic sector, a flag of anti - involution, led the gains. The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [1][2]. - Anti - involution key industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc. High - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025, reaching a record high [1][2]. - Global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,500 points again. The turnover of the two markets was 1.45 trillion yuan, showing increasing volume on the rise. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices all rose, with increases of 1.27%, 1.31%, 0.84%, and 0.57% respectively. Among industry and theme ETFs, photovoltaic ETFs, communication ETFs, etc. led the gains, while green power ETFs, power ETFs, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 9.8 billion, 4.8 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan respectively in the precipitation funds [1]. Important Information - Huachuang Securities believes that key anti - involution industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc., and the anti - involution measures are mainly industry self - regulation, administrative guidance, and public opinion supervision [1]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, Chinese on - shore and off - shore listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends, and the dividend payout ratio of Chinese listed companies reached 39% last year [1]. - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were issued, with a single - product limit of 300 million yuan each, and all 10 products were sold out on the first day [1]. - Google's Omar Shams believes that energy supply is the key constraint for the long - term development of AI, and China's annual new power generation capacity exceeds the sum of the UK and France [1]. - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Passenger car exports were 480,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The production of new energy passenger cars reached 1.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.0% [1]. - Analysts expect the profit growth rate of US stocks in the second quarter to slow down significantly from 12% in the first quarter to 4%. The impact of tariffs has become a market focus [1]. Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1. The US will impose reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries from August 1, 2025, which is beneficial to China's exports. Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a record - high 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Future Outlook - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. Trading Strategy - For futures direction trading, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. - For stock index option trading, it is recommended to buy long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options on stock indices as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2].

Group 1 - Trump's tariff threats target BRICS nations, claiming they promote anti-American policies, but this move has inadvertently strengthened China's position [2] - The tariffs aim to suppress China's high-tech industries, including electric vehicles and semiconductors, but historical evidence shows that U.S. restrictions often catalyze technological advancements in China [4] - BRICS countries are collaborating to create a "de-Americanized" supply chain, with agreements like the digital trade recognition pact between China, Russia, and India facilitating data exchange and bypassing U.S. tech dominance [4][6] Group 2 - The appeal of the BRICS bloc is growing, with countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt seeking membership due to the unreliability of the U.S. market and the attractiveness of China's vast market and investment opportunities [6] - BRICS nations now account for 35% of global GDP, surpassing the G7's 30%, and control significant resources in energy, food, and manufacturing, countering U.S. isolation efforts [6] - The U.S. is facing a potential shift in global economic power, as countries increasingly move towards de-dollarization, with Russia's de-dollarization rate exceeding 80% and India using the rupee for oil purchases [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid the continued escalation of the Middle - East situation with a high probability of US military involvement, the market risk preference is decreasing, and A - shares should continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese assets [47] - The surge in crude oil prices has pushed the world into an inflation shock mode [44] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, the market risk preference declined, and growth - style indices mainly adjusted. In the defensive mode, the bank ETF reached a new high in this round [7][10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Events - The Middle - East situation is escalating, with a high probability of US military involvement. Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [13][53] - Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big bang", and an "AI tsunami" is coming. AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [13][53] - According to Citi analysis, if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for several months, oil prices may reach $90 per barrel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase, but the blockade will be short - lived [13][53] China's Economic Data - In May, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues large - scale investment in emerging and future industries [14] - In May, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining medium - to - high - speed growth [17] - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized [20] - In May, the monthly value of retail sales of consumer goods was 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating continuous improvement in consumption [22] - In May, the monthly value of China's above - scale express delivery volume was 17.32 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.2% [25] - In May, the monthly output of industrial robots was 69,000 units, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 34.1% [27] - In May, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 42.4 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [29] - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 vehicles, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both hitting new highs [31] US Economic Data - In April, US retail and food sales were $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, showing strong US consumption [33] - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [35] - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US core CPI was 2.8% (same as the previous value), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [38] - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [40] European Economic Data - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost German and Eurozone manufacturing [42] Investment and Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the high probability of US military involvement, the investment advice for A - shares is to continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - For stock index option trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks, option suggestions are suspended [13][53]