更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 25 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五芯片板块暴涨，带动科创 50 指数大涨 8.5%，两市主要指数震荡上涨。两市成 交额 2.54 万亿元，稍有放大。上证 50 指数收 2928 点，涨 66 点，涨幅 2.32%；沪 | | | | | 深 300 指数收 4378 点，涨 89 点，涨幅 2.10%；中证 500 指数收 6822 点，涨 118 | | | | | 点，涨幅 1.77%；中证 1000 指数收 7362 点，涨 109 点，涨幅 1.51%。行业与主题 | | | | | ETF 中涨幅居前的是科创 50ETF 富国、科创芯片设计 ETF、科创芯片 ETF、科创信息 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The recent sharp decline of the Shanghai Composite Index after hitting 3700 points was due to some funds taking profits. However, the medium - term outlook remains optimistic as continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market upward. The trend of global non - US dollar asset allocation is deepening, with many central banks increasing their holdings of RMB and euro assets. RMB assets, especially RMB bonds, have become a preferred allocation for international investors. The view of investors towards the Chinese market has become more positive, while the Indian stock market has fallen out of favor [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index hit 3700 points and then tumbled. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.15 trillion yuan, showing a rapid increase. Among the indices, the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6976 points, down 87 points (-1.24%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 6429 points, down 78 points (-1.20%); the SSE 50 Index closed at 2829 points, up 16 points (0.59%); the CSI 300 Index closed at 4173 points, down 3 points (-0.08%). In the industry and theme ETFs, chip - related ETFs led the gains, while aerospace - related ETFs led the losses. In the two - market sector indices, the sports, insurance, and semiconductor indices led the gains, while the ground military equipment, components, and energy metals indices led the losses. The settlement funds of CSI 300 and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net inflows of 1500 million and 700 million yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information - In July, non - banking financial institutions had a net increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, while household RMB deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, indicating that household savings are flowing into the stock market at an accelerated pace. The National Data Bureau stated that China's digital infrastructure is world - leading in scale and technology, with 4.55 million 5G base stations and 226 million gigabit broadband users by the end of June, and the total computing power ranks second globally. According to a UBS survey, many central banks have been increasing their holdings of RMB and euro assets this year, deepening the global trend of non - US dollar asset allocation. The Indian stock market has fallen from the most favored Asian market to the least popular one among fund managers, while investors' view of the Chinese market has become more positive. The Tianmen government in Hubei Province offers rewards, subsidies, and free services worth up to 287,000 yuan for two - child families and 355,000 yuan for three - child families. The International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply is expanding significantly, and demand growth has slowed to less than half of that in 2023, leading to a serious imbalance in the market. The demand for Japanese five - year government bond auctions hit a record low since 2020, and the 10 - year government bond had no transactions for the first time in over two years. The Japanese CPI has exceeded the central bank's 2% target for over three years, and some central bank governors suggest a shift in inflation - monitoring indicators, which may pave the way for an interest - rate hike in October. Market investors are betting on a Fed rate cut through various means, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to 100% [1][2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The recent sharp decline of the Shanghai Composite Index was due to some funds taking profits. The global trend of non - US dollar asset allocation is deepening, and RMB assets have become a preferred choice for international investors. The worst period of the economic cycle is passing, and the attractiveness of stock allocation has significantly increased as households shift from excessive savings to normal savings [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The short - term sharp decline of the Shanghai Composite Index at the 3700 - point mark does not affect the medium - term optimism. The continuous inflow of funds will drive the stock market upward. The Chinese humanoid robot industry is iterating products at an amazing speed, and its commercialization path is becoming clearer. The global financial asset re - allocation trend of "de - Americanization" is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into the A - share market [2]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the short - term volatility at the 3700 - point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index does not affect the medium - term upward trend. For stock index option trading, with continuous capital inflows, investors can consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on growth - oriented stock indices [2].

格林大华期货股指月报 股指月报 回落空间有限，场外资金加速入市 2025年8月1日 F0247894 Z0000112 于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 2 3 7月上证指数越过3500点，财富效应扩散 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 4 本期分析 交易策略： 股指期货方向交易：上证指数在3550点下方有强支撑，下行空间不大。短线回落无 碍中线乐观。技术调整充分后，股指仍将继续上行。 股指期权交易：市场短线回落无碍，可择机买入股指远月深虚值看涨期权。 6 7月31日 中央政治局研究分析当前经济形势和经济工作 5 市场观点：市场下行空间有限，调整充分后，股指仍将继续上行 国家发改委表示，今年第三批690亿元支持消费品以旧换新的超长期特别国债资金 已全部下达完毕，并将于10月按计划下达第四批690亿元资金。至7月29日，上交所 融资余额报10008亿元，站上1万亿元，创2015年7月8日以来新高；深交所融资余额 报9612亿元；两市合计19620亿元。全球金融资产再配置"去美化" ，有望加速国 际资金流入A股。后半周的下跌缘于部分资金认为政治局会议政策低于预期，但实 质上上半年经济明显好 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IH, IF, IM, IC in the macro and financial and stock index sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3,500 points and is expected to break through. The photovoltaic sector, a flag of anti - involution, led the gains. The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [1][2]. - Anti - involution key industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc. High - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025, reaching a record high [1][2]. - Global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,500 points again. The turnover of the two markets was 1.45 trillion yuan, showing increasing volume on the rise. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices all rose, with increases of 1.27%, 1.31%, 0.84%, and 0.57% respectively. Among industry and theme ETFs, photovoltaic ETFs, communication ETFs, etc. led the gains, while green power ETFs, power ETFs, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 9.8 billion, 4.8 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan respectively in the precipitation funds [1]. Important Information - Huachuang Securities believes that key anti - involution industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc., and the anti - involution measures are mainly industry self - regulation, administrative guidance, and public opinion supervision [1]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, Chinese on - shore and off - shore listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends, and the dividend payout ratio of Chinese listed companies reached 39% last year [1]. - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were issued, with a single - product limit of 300 million yuan each, and all 10 products were sold out on the first day [1]. - Google's Omar Shams believes that energy supply is the key constraint for the long - term development of AI, and China's annual new power generation capacity exceeds the sum of the UK and France [1]. - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Passenger car exports were 480,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The production of new energy passenger cars reached 1.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.0% [1]. - Analysts expect the profit growth rate of US stocks in the second quarter to slow down significantly from 12% in the first quarter to 4%. The impact of tariffs has become a market focus [1]. Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1. The US will impose reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries from August 1, 2025, which is beneficial to China's exports. Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a record - high 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Future Outlook - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. Trading Strategy - For futures direction trading, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. - For stock index option trading, it is recommended to buy long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options on stock indices as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-share market showed a large consolidation platform in the first half of the year, with a deep V-shaped trend triggered by the tariff war. After the Middle East situation eased on June 24, the stock index rose rapidly [8]. - Due to the impact of DeepSeek and the US imposing reciprocal tariffs, international capital fled from US stocks on a large scale, with technology stocks being the hardest hit [10]. - After the rebound of US stocks in April, the main buyers were retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and the short positions of hedge funds reached a record high [13]. Group 2: Market Outlook - A-shares are expected to transform into a capital-driven upward trend. After the Middle East situation eased, the risk appetite of A-shares quickly recovered, and the main indexes of the two markets rose rapidly. With the one-year deposit rate falling below 1%, the large-scale savings of the household sector are accelerating to flow into the stock market, preferring high-dividend sectors, which has driven the bank ETF to continuously reach new highs. The balance of margin trading has rebounded, and the financing balance has remained above 1.8 trillion yuan for 11 consecutive trading days (from June 9 to June 23). Global investors are increasingly focusing on China's innovation and leading position, and many foreign giants have suddenly collectively turned bullish on Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and Bank of America believes that global capital allocation is gradually shifting from the US to the Eurasian market. Since October 2024, A-shares have been consolidating on a large platform for more than 8 months and are facing an upward breakthrough [18]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, A-shares have been consolidating on a large platform for more than 8 months and are facing an upward breakthrough. They are expected to transform into a capital-driven upward trend and evolve from a volatile recovery market to a trending upward market [19]. - For stock index option trading, after breaking through the large consolidation platform, investors can buy out-of-the-money long-dated call options on stock index options [19]. Group 4: Interest Rate and Market Impact - The one-year deposit rate was cut by 15 basis points to 0.95%, which will promote the continuous transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The 1-year deposit rate breaking below 1% accelerates the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market, and the decline in deposit rates boosts the value style of the stock market [23][26]. - The issuance of free cash flow ETFs helps the value style. Free cash flow is an indicator of a company's moat in operation and development, and it can relatively truly reflect the company's financial health and profitability in terms of cash. Domestic free cash flow index ETFs were first launched by Huaxia Fund and Guotai Fund in January 2025, tracking the China Securities Free Cash Flow Index and the FTSE China A-share Free Cash Flow Focus Index respectively. The free cash flow strategy has certain growth potential on the basis of value investment, while the dividend strategy is more suitable for investors who prefer low valuations and stable dividends [29]. Group 5: Global Capital Allocation - Global large funds are collectively "de-Americanizing," reducing their allocation of US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing their allocation of European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions generally hold different views on US stocks, but the overall allocation has been reduced to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. "Buying Asia and Europe" has become a consensus among global large funds. European and Japanese stock markets have been upgraded, and emerging market stock markets remain overweight [30]. - Institutions generally reduce their holdings of US and Japanese bonds and turn to increasing their positions in UK, German, Italian bonds, and local bonds in emerging markets. In the foreign exchange market, the selling of the US is more obvious, and the US dollar continues to be underweighted, while the euro and the yen continue to be overweighted [31][32]. Group 6: Foreign Investment Views - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for Chinese assets, expecting the target point of the CSI 300 to be 4,600 and the target point of the MSCI China to be 84, implying an upside potential of about 10%. Goldman Sachs has recently upgraded the ratings of the banking and real estate sectors, mainly benefiting from domestic policy support, and continues to overweight consumer-related sectors, including medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce retail [33]. - Overseas "smart money" is bullish on Chinese assets with real money. From the frequent due diligence of quantitative private equity funds by foreign investors to the aggressive layout of sovereign funds, overseas "smart money" has turned its attention to the Chinese market. Many international investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy. In the view of many foreign institutions, the continuous efforts of China's monetary and fiscal policies, the resilience of the service industry, and the technological breakthroughs driving the revaluation of assets will jointly support the recovery of the Chinese economy and the warming of the capital market [36]. Group 7: China's Economic Data - In May, China's export amount reached $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, exceeding expectations. In April, China's export volume increased by 13.0% year-on-year and 8.5% month-on-month. The export structure continued to upgrade, with the export amount of mechanical and electrical products reaching $181.9 billion in May, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The export volume of general equipment and special equipment continued to grow rapidly, indicating the continuous upgrading of the export structure [38][41][44]. - In May, China's export to ASEAN reached $58.3 billion, with a surplus of $27.1 billion, reaching a record high. China's export to the EU reached $49.5 billion in May, hitting a new high in nearly three years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [50][53]. - In May, Vietnam's export amount reached $39.5 billion, a record high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7%, indicating an acceleration of trade transfer [56]. - In May, China's manufacturing fixed asset investment reached 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries. Infrastructure investment reached 2.26 trillion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining a medium-to-high growth rate [59][62]. - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating a continuous improvement in consumption. The monthly volume of express delivery services by large-scale enterprises in China reached 17.32 billion pieces in May, the second-highest in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.2%. The output of industrial robots reached 69,000 units in May, at a high level, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.1%. The output of integrated circuits reached 42.4 billion pieces in May, the second-highest in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating an acceleration of domestic chip substitution. China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 units in May, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both reaching new highs [65][68][71]. Group 8: US Economic Data - In May, the US manufacturing PMI and service industry business activity index showed certain trends. The prices of the US manufacturing and service industries continued to rise rapidly. The US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, indicating strong consumer demand [83][85][88]. - In April, the US consumer goods import amount reached $69.8 billion, returning to normal, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. The US capital goods import amount reached $90.5 billion in April, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration of the reshoring of the US manufacturing industry and the "re-industrialization" of the US. The US service export reached $98.8 billion in April, hitting a new high this year, indicating the strength of the US service industry [91][94][97]. - In May, the US core CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, the same as the previous value, and increased by 0.2% month-on-month. The market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September. In April, the number of job openings in the US reached 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a new high in a year, indicating a tightening labor market. The US wholesalers' inventory increased by 2.3% year-on-year in April, and the manufacturers' inventory increased by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [100][103][106]. Group 9: Eurozone and Indian Economic Data - In May, the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and Germany showed certain trends. India's manufacturing and service industry PMIs also showed certain trends [113][116]. Group 10: Strategy Recommendations - After the Middle East situation eases, the risk appetite of A-shares quickly recovers, and the main indexes of the two markets rise rapidly. The brokerage ETF, known as the "bull market flag bearer," closed with a long positive line on June 25. Driven by the continuous inflow of funds, A-shares are expected to shift from a volatile recovery market to a trending upward market, and investors are bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [120][122][125]. - Affected by quantitative capital hedging, the 2509 contracts of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes still have relatively deep discounts. With limited downside risks, investors can earn the discount income. After the market breaks through the large platform upwards, investors are bullish on the out-of-the-money long-dated call options on stock index options [128][131].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid the continued escalation of the Middle - East situation with a high probability of US military involvement, the market risk preference is decreasing, and A - shares should continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese assets [47] - The surge in crude oil prices has pushed the world into an inflation shock mode [44] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, the market risk preference declined, and growth - style indices mainly adjusted. In the defensive mode, the bank ETF reached a new high in this round [7][10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Events - The Middle - East situation is escalating, with a high probability of US military involvement. Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [13][53] - Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big bang", and an "AI tsunami" is coming. AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [13][53] - According to Citi analysis, if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for several months, oil prices may reach $90 per barrel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase, but the blockade will be short - lived [13][53] China's Economic Data - In May, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues large - scale investment in emerging and future industries [14] - In May, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining medium - to - high - speed growth [17] - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized [20] - In May, the monthly value of retail sales of consumer goods was 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating continuous improvement in consumption [22] - In May, the monthly value of China's above - scale express delivery volume was 17.32 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.2% [25] - In May, the monthly output of industrial robots was 69,000 units, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 34.1% [27] - In May, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 42.4 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [29] - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 vehicles, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both hitting new highs [31] US Economic Data - In April, US retail and food sales were $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, showing strong US consumption [33] - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [35] - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US core CPI was 2.8% (same as the previous value), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [38] - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [40] European Economic Data - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost German and Eurozone manufacturing [42] Investment and Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the high probability of US military involvement, the investment advice for A - shares is to continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - For stock index option trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks, option suggestions are suspended [13][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for IH, IF, and a moderately bullish rating for IM, IC in the macro and financial sector regarding stock index futures [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sharp drops in the stock market on Friday afternoon do not affect the long - term bullish outlook for the four major indices. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate below 1% is expected to drive the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The market style is likely to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The inflow of foreign capital in the next few quarters will be the main trading logic, and the market expects free - cash - flow and dividend - related ETFs to benefit the most [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday afternoon around 2 pm, the main indices of the two markets weakened suddenly, with a small intraday decline. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion yuan, showing little change. The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2711 points, down 21 points or - 0.80%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3882 points, down 31 points or - 0.81%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5653 points, down 50 points or - 0.88%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5989 points, down 76 points or - 1.26%. Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were Auto ETF, Gold Stocks ETF, etc., and those with the highest losses were Fintech ETF, Gaming ETF, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top - rising ones were Controllable Nuclear Fusion, Passenger Vehicles, etc., and the top - falling ones were Industrial Internet, Sora Concept, etc. The futures of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices saw net inflows of 12, 44, 16, and 2 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The CSRC stated that it will support high - quality unprofitable technology companies to list and promote the implementation of new cases under the fifth listing standard of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and support high - quality red - chip technology companies to return to the domestic market [1]. - The central bank conducted a 5000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net injection of 3750 billion yuan after deducting the 1250 - billion - yuan maturity [1]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers summarized the experience of anti - "malicious involution" work, and self - discipline has become a key word in the automotive industry [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to improve the product system suitable for new productive forces and promote the R & D and listing of products such as cast aluminum alloy, and improve the institutional mechanism [1]. - Shipping companies such as CMA CGM and MSC plan to add a peak - season surcharge of up to $2000 per 40 - foot container from June 1, with a 156% increase in freight rates in two weeks [1]. - Huatai Securities believes that after the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reform in 2018, liquidity has improved significantly, and consumer and technology sectors account for half of the Hong Kong stock market [1]. - Some European Central Bank officials believe that the April interest - rate cut was an "advance" of the June cut, with a 90% probability of a cut next month and another cut expected this year [2]. - The US existing - home market in April was unexpectedly cold, with a 0.5% month - on - month decline in sales volume and an annualized sales volume of only 4 million units, the worst April since 2009 [2]. - Driven by new orders, the preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, a three - month high, and the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 52.3, a two - month high [2]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if the Trump administration maintains tariffs at about 10%, the Fed may start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2025 [2]. - US President Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on EU - imported goods starting from June 1 [2]. Market Logic - The short - term sharp drop in the stock market on Friday afternoon is not a concern. The central bank's MLF net injection and the CSRC's support for technology companies' listing, along with the 1 - year deposit rate falling below 1%, are expected to drive funds into the stock market [2]. Future Outlook - The short - term sharp drop on Friday afternoon does not affect the long - term bullish outlook for the four major indices. The decline of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive funds into the stock market, and foreign capital inflow will be the main trading logic. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style, and the market is expected to be dominated by the Shanghai 50 Index [2]. Trading Strategy - In stock index futures directional trading, the 1 - year deposit rate falling below 1% is expected to drive funds into the stock market, and the market style may shift to the cyclical value style. The short - term sharp drop on Friday does not affect the long - term bullish outlook for the four major indices [2]. - In stock index option trading, as the market is in a consolidation period, it is recommended to suspend the purchase of far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is generally bullish on the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IM, IC), with a bias towards long positions [1]. Core Viewpoints - The performance of A-share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient, with three - quarters of companies profitable and half of them seeing profit growth. The market is expected to attract foreign capital inflows in the next few quarters. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored [1][2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the major indices of the two markets showed a differentiated trend. Value - cycle indices were strong, while growth indices were weak. The bank ETF was close to a new high. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.10 trillion yuan, with a slight decline. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.19%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.06%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.95%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.08%. Among industry and theme ETFs, game ETFs, bank ETFs, etc. led the gains, while battery ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, game, small and medium - sized banks, etc. led the gains, while medical beauty, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Shanghai 50 Index stock index futures saw net inflows of 590 million, 160 million, and 10 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The group of dynamic listed companies is rewriting the global asset allocation logic. A - share listed companies' performance in 2024 was generally resilient. UBS is optimistic about the Chinese stock market, and foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters. ETF - FOF is in a new development opportunity period. The coal industry is expected to rise. China's gold imports in April reached a new high in 11 months. OPEC+ is competing with US shale oil producers for market share. The demand for Japanese government bond auctions hit a new low, and yields soared. Amazon is not affected by consumer tightening. US retail trading volume and net buying reached new highs. US long - term government bond auctions were dismal, and yields rose. Hedge funds increased their investment in Chinese companies listed in the US in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Market Logic - The performance of A - share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is beneficial to the market. Foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters [1][2]. Future Outlook - The value - based indices of the two markets continued to strengthen on Thursday. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is beneficial to the market. The performance of A - share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient. The price of Shanghai - US West Line 40 - foot containers has increased significantly. Foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. Free cash flow - based ETFs and dividend - based ETFs are expected to benefit the most. Overseas institutional funds will flow into the A - share market on a large scale. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored [2]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored. Stock index option trading: The market is in a consolidation period to repair technical indicators. It is recommended to suspend long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options [2].