期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 24 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力阶段性体现 粕类承压回落 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价偏强 国内糖价走弱 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | 生猪：供应压力继续增加 现货延续回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：下跌风险得到释放 关注交易逻辑的切换 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银震荡中等待方向 16 | 贵金属：美联储"鹰鸽"分歧加剧 | | --- | --- | | 铜：短期关注下方支撑 17 | | | 关注仓单转现 18 | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 | | 沪铝压力减弱 19 | 电解铝 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets showed mixed trends on November 18, 2025. Major stock indices in the US declined, while some commodities like CBOT soybeans and domestic metals such as gold and silver had positive movements. In the macro - economic aspect, various events including diplomatic responses, financial dialogues, and policy - related decisions influenced market sentiment. Different sectors in the commodities market had their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends, and the A - share market continued its high - level adjustment [2][7][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On November 18, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped to 46590.24, a decrease of 1.182% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index fell to 22708.07, down 0.841%; the S&P 500 decreased to 6672.41, a decline of 0.916%; and the Hang Seng Index dropped to 26384.28, down 0.708% [2]. - **Other Macro Indicators**: SHIBOR overnight increased to 1.51, up 10.638%; the dollar index slightly decreased to 99.53, down 0.004%; the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.10 [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold decreased to 4045.10, down 0.962%; COMEX silver dropped to 50.05, down 0.694%; LME copper decreased to 10766.50, down 0.733%. In the domestic market, gold increased to 931.24, up 0.192%; silver rose to 11983.00, up 0.419%; copper decreased to 86320.00, down 0.150% [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Diplomatic and International Relations**: China has and will continue to lodge solemn representations and strong protests against Japan's Prime Minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan. During the G20 Summit, there is no arrangement for Premier Li Qiang to meet with Japanese leaders. China and Germany held the fourth high - level financial and economic dialogue, and both sides welcomed cross - listing of depositary receipts [7]. - **Domestic Economic Data**: From January to October this year, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and the cross - border capital inflow increased [7][8]. - **Industrial Policies**: China will conduct a final review of anti - dumping and counter - vailing measures on imported n - propanol from the US. The real estate market is showing a trend of being dominated by second - hand housing transactions and gradually stabilizing [8]. - **International Monetary Policy**: The Fed's vice - chairperson believes that the downward risk of employment has increased, and the upward risk of inflation may have slightly decreased recently. A Fed governor advocates another interest rate cut in December [9]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: On November 17, peanut futures closed at 7958 yuan/ton, slightly down 0.20%. Short - term trading can be long at low prices near the 7900 - yuan support level, but beware of price drops due to increased supply [11]. - **Sugar**: On November 17, sugar futures closed at 5458 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The supply - side pressure is obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Corn**: On November 17, the corn main contract closed at 2182 yuan/ton, flat. The market lacks a strong driver, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of other agricultural products such as eggs, cotton, etc. also showed different trends, and corresponding trading strategies were proposed based on supply - demand fundamentals [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract is running at a low level. Pay attention to the support at the annual low [13]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited. The UR2601 contract is expected to run in the 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with coking coal in the 1100 - 1300 yuan range and coke in the 1600 - 1800 yuan range [13]. - **Paper Pulp**: The supply - demand is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 5450 - 5350 yuan support. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [13][15]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The market macro - sentiment has cooled, and copper and aluminum are adjusting at high levels. Pay attention to macro - risks [15]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern. The 2601 contract is running at a low level, and pay attention to factors such as bauxite [15]. - **Steel Products**: The steel prices have rebounded at a low level, but the upward height is limited. The pressure on rebar is around 3150 yuan, and that on hot - rolled coils is around 3350 yuan [15]. - **Silicon Ferroalloys**: They mainly follow the macro and black - series fluctuations. The alloy's own supply - demand drive is not strong [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term strong pattern continues. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and beware of downstream procurement caution and import pressure [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market continues its high - level adjustment. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy, reduce positions, and use options to sell straddle strategies [16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation on November 11, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors in the market, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - There are data on the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate, with specific values and comparison data with the previous trading day, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 636.209 billion yuan, a change of - 2.76% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1313.794 billion yuan, a change of - 2.08% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 48.16%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount changes, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of each variety in the stock index plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][9][12] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 306.618 billion yuan, a change of - 10.04% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 877.984 billion yuan, a change of - 1.16% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 33.87%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount changes, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of each variety in the treasury bond plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][21][24] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the base metal plate was 361.394 billion yuan, a change of - 14.51% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 606.448 billion yuan, a change of + 0.71% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 72.67%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 676.209 billion yuan, a change of - 12.19% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 466.083 billion yuan, a change of + 4.06% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 169.06%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of each variety in the metal plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][30][33] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 364.619 billion yuan, a change of - 11.38% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 467.431 billion yuan, a change of + 1.11% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 68.09%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][37][40] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 294.841 billion yuan, a change of + 5.37% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 588.412 billion yuan, a change of + 1.26% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 46.89%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][44][52] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On November 11, 2025, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 235.001 billion yuan, a change of - 9.48% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 382.632 billion yuan, a change of + 0.73% compared with the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 54.93%. There are also relevant charts showing the price changes, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund changes, precipitation fund trends, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trends of each variety in the black building materials plate, and the data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [2][55][57]

Group 1: Hot News - The Communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and long - term goals by 2035 [2] - Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th [2] - The EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the EU to stop and vowed to safeguard Chinese enterprises' rights [2] - As of the week ending October 23rd, rebar production increased, factory and social inventories decreased for two consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Production was 2.0707 million tons, up 59,100 tons or 2.94% from last week, and apparent demand was 2.2601 million tons, up 62,600 tons or 2.85% [3] - As of October 23rd, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, up 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% week - on - week, increasing for 3 weeks after the holiday and reaching a 3 - month high, with a year - on - year increase of 16.99% [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, lithium carbonate, eggs, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - session price changes of commodity futures main contracts: non - metallic building materials up 2.90%, precious metals up 31.27%, oilseeds up 9.82%, soft commodities up 2.71%, non - ferrous metals up 21.27%, coal, coke, steel and minerals up 13.31%, energy up 3.01%, chemicals up 10.94%, grains up 1.15%, agricultural and sideline products up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - Five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions are presented for different sectors including agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, etc. [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily increase of 0.22%, monthly increase of 1.02%, annual increase of 17.03% [6] - S&P 500: daily increase of 0.58%, monthly increase of 0.75%, annual increase of 14.57% [6] - Hang Seng Index: daily increase of 0.72%, monthly decrease of 3.31%, annual increase of 29.45% [6] Fixed - income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily decrease of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.18%, annual decrease of 0.82% [6] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 0.89%, annual increase of 0.41% [6] - WTI Crude Oil: daily increase of 5.62%, monthly decrease of 1.12%, annual decrease of 14.09% [6] Other - US Dollar Index: daily increase of 0.03%, monthly increase of 1.14%, annual decrease of 8.80% [6] - CBOE Volatility Index: daily unchanged, monthly increase of 14.25%, annual increase of 7.20% [6]

Core Viewpoint - There are multiple investment avenues available for gold, including futures contracts and exchange-traded funds [1] Investment Methods - Futures contracts are one of the ways to invest in gold, allowing investors to speculate on future price movements [1] - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide another method for investing in gold, offering a more liquid and accessible option for investors [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the unique experience of futures traders during the National Day holiday in China, highlighting the contrast between market activity and personal reflection [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Futures exchanges will be closed from October 1 to October 8, with trading resuming on October 9, indicating a structured break in trading activities [1] - The last trading days before the holiday often see increased market volatility, with potential margin adjustments and risk warnings issued by exchanges [1] Group 2: Trader Behavior - Some futures traders choose to close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties in international markets, allowing for personal time and reflection [2] - Others remain engaged with the market during the holiday, monitoring global price movements and preparing for post-holiday trading [2] Group 3: Personal Reflection and Preparation - The holiday serves as a time for traders to recharge, review past trades, and learn new analytical tools, emphasizing the connection between market activities and real-world economic indicators [2] - Upon returning to the market, traders bring insights gained during the break, ready to face the challenges of trading with renewed understanding and support from family [3]

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in August 2025 was 50.3%, slightly up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as the 50.3% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, new social financing scale reached 256.68 billion yuan, compared with 113.07 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in August 2025 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively, with M1 showing significant improvement from -3.0% in the same period last year [1] - New RMB loans in August 2025 were 59 billion yuan, compared with -5 billion yuan in the previous month and 90 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in August 2025 decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year but improved from -3.6% in the previous month [1] - Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth in August 2025 was 0.5%, down from 1.6% in the previous month and 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in August 2025 was 4.64%, slightly down from 4.8% in the previous month but up from 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - Export value in August 2025 increased by 4.4% year - on - year, while import value increased by 1.3% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, held a round - table meeting with some Chinese enterprises in the US, aiming to stabilize Sino - US economic and trade cooperation and protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [2] - Huarui Bank will lower RMB deposit interest rates starting from September 26, with the current deposit rate down 2 basis points to 0.1%, and fixed - deposit rates for different terms adjusted down by 5 - 20 basis points [2] - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the price limit and trading margin levels for relevant futures contracts during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays [3] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit for certain futures contracts starting from September 29 [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit for certain futures contracts starting from the close of trading on September 29 [4] - The "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, emphasizing industry management and capacity control [5] 2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally declined, while London base metals rose. Freeport McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary's Grasberg mine suspended production due to a fatal mudslide, with production expected to recover by 2027 and a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026 compared to previous forecasts [6] - Since late August, gold and silver futures prices have been rising due to geopolitical risks and Fed rate - cut expectations, but institutions have warned of holiday - holding risks [6] - On September 23, tin inventory reached a 4 - month high, zinc inventory a 2 - year - 5 - month low, aluminum inventory a 6 - month high, copper inventory a 1 - month low, lead inventory a 6 - month low, and nickel inventory a 4 - year - 2 - month high [7] - As of September 24, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 3.72 tons (0.37%) compared to the previous day [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 0.67% month - on - month but an increase of 4.22% year - on - year; 19.1 million tons of pig iron, an increase of 0.74% month - on - month and 5.41% year - on - year; and 20.61 million tons of steel products, an increase of 5.37% month - on - month and 6.68% year - on - year [8][9] - Global crude steel production in August 2025 was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and the cumulative production from January to August decreased by 1.7% year - on - year to 1.2306 billion tons [9] - As of mid - September, the price of coke decreased by 4.69% month - on - month, and the price of coking coal decreased by 0.04% month - on - month [9] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices rose due to a surprise decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory and supply concerns after a Russian refinery was attacked [10] - China's largest single - set natural gas purification plant in Sichuan was put into operation, with a daily processing capacity of up to 7.2 million cubic meters and a maximum of 14.4 million cubic meters [10] - The US Energy Secretary said the US is ready to replace Russian energy in Europe [10] - Russia raised its 2025 oil export forecast to 240.1 million tons [11] - Enterprises expect WTI crude oil to reach $63 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas to reach $3.30 per million British thermal units by the end of 2025 [12] 2.5 Agricultural Products - Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU are expected to increase from 3.3 million tons in 2025 to 4 million tons in 2026 [13] - Argentine farmers sold about 1.2 million tons of soybeans on Tuesday [13] - US exporters sold 101,400 tons of soybean cake and meal to Guatemala and 312,956 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [13] - The Philippines will extend the rice import ban [14] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On September 24, the central bank conducted 401.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan on the day [15] - The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on September 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, continuing the incremental renewal for the 7th consecutive month [15] 3.2 Key News - Premier Li Qiang stated that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, which is a positive move for global trade [17] - Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash deposits, with specific collateral requirements [17] - A new policy - based financial instrument with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan is being established, and many regions are in the project application stage [18] - The "Blue Book of Local Government Bonds in China (2025)" shows that local government bonds in 2025 have three characteristics, and fiscal stimulus is expected to continue [18] - Nine departments issued 13 measures to support service exports [18] - From January to August, Shanghai's general public budget revenue increased by 1.1% year - on - year, while expenditure increased by 11.8% year - on - year [19][20] - An expert suggested issuing an additional 100 billion yuan of local government bonds to replace hidden debts this year [20] - Many real - estate enterprises issued bonds recently to replenish funds, as the third - quarter debt repayment peak approached in 2025 [20] - UK new government bond issuances have been cold recently [21] - There are some major bond - related events and overseas credit rating adjustments [21] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - Due to tight liquidity and a strong stock market, the bond market weakened, with rising yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market and falling bond futures [22] - In the exchange bond market, most bonds of Shenzhen Investment Holdings and Vanke declined, while some bonds rose [22] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.30%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 1.41% [23] - Money market interest rates mostly rose on September 24 [23][24] - Agricultural Development Bank and Ministry of Finance bond auctions had specific winning bid yields and multiples [25] - European and US bond yields showed different trends [26] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on September 24, down 86 basis points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was 7.1077, down 20 basis points [27] - The US dollar index rose by 0.65% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [27] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that Fujian Province has a strong industrial foundation but lags behind some other provinces, and its industrial structure is related to its natural resources and geographical features [29] - CITIC Construction Investment also suggests that local governments and urban investment companies should focus on attracting and serving high - quality enterprises, and urban investment companies should choose development directions based on the city's development stage [29] - CITIC Securities points out that the combined market share of two convertible bond ETFs in the convertible bond market is about 9.08% as of September 19, and investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [29] 4. Stock Market Key News - The A - share market rose, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 reaching new stage highs, and nearly 4,500 stocks rising. Semiconductor, new energy, and other sectors performed well, while AI hardware and banks declined [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.64%. Tech stocks rose, while pharmaceutical stocks declined [32]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is consulting on the implementation of an investor identification code system for the derivatives market to enhance the integrity and sustainable development of Hong Kong's capital markets [1] Group 1: Investor Identification Code System - The proposed investor identification code system for the derivatives market will cover futures contracts, options contracts, and stock options traded through the Hong Kong Futures Exchange [1] - This system will follow a similar model to the one successfully implemented in the securities market since March 2023 [1] - Licensed corporations and registered institutions providing brokerage services or engaging in proprietary trading will be required to submit client names and identity information to a central database [1] Group 2: Market Integrity and Investor Protection - The SFC aims to enhance its ability to detect violations and strengthen investor protection by expanding the investor identification code system to the derivatives market [1] - The implementation of this system is seen as a significant advancement in improving cross-market surveillance capabilities, which is crucial for maintaining market integrity and boosting investor confidence [1] - These factors are essential for consolidating Hong Kong's position as a sustainable international financial center [1]

Core Insights - The upcoming "Triple Witching Day" on Friday is set to be the largest in history, with over $5 trillion in U.S. stock options and futures contracts expiring, which is expected to inject more uncertainty into market trends [1] - "Triple Witching Day" occurs on the third Friday of each quarter, when stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options all expire simultaneously [1] - Goldman Sachs options expert John Marshall estimates that over $5.3 trillion in nominal value of options will expire this Friday, including $3 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $935 billion in individual stock options [1] - The total nominal value of expiring options is equivalent to 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index, marking the highest scale for September's "Triple Witching Day" in history [1] - According to options analysis firm SpotGamma, nearly 90% of the expiring positions are call options, and as these positions are closed, the long stock positions held by traders for hedging will be unwound, indicating a significant loss of market buying support [1] - For short-term market trends, Goldman Sachs predicts that the market's rebound momentum is likely to continue until the options expiration event is completed, which is typically associated with a "gamma squeeze" effect before expiration, followed by a pullback in the following week [1]

Core Insights - The upcoming "Triple Witching Day" on Friday is set to be the largest in history, with over $5 trillion in U.S. stock options and futures contracts expiring on the same day, introducing significant uncertainty to market trends [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that more than $5.3 trillion in nominal value of options will expire, including $3 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $935 billion in individual stock options [1] - This expiration represents 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index, marking the highest scale for a September "Triple Witching Day" [1] Market Dynamics - According to options analysis firm SpotGamma, nearly 90% of the expiring positions are call options, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [1] - As these positions expire, the long stock positions held by traders for hedging will be unwound, suggesting a significant loss of market buying support [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the market's rebound momentum is likely to continue until the options expiration event is completed, typically associated with a "gamma squeeze" effect before the expiration, followed by a potential pullback the following week [1]