Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30 made marginal adjustments to macro - economic policies. Policy is more neutral, emphasizing the implementation of previous supportive measures and long - term layout, with a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, and industrial upgrading [6]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on July 30, but internal differences were prominent. Powell's hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing the dollar and Treasury yields to rise sharply, and the stock market and gold prices to fluctuate [9]. - Due to weak fundamentals and high downstream inventory, pulp is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and reverse arbitrage operations can be considered [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)** - Gold: FOMC meeting released hawkish expectations, with a trend intensity of - 1. Gold prices such as Comex Gold 2510 and London Gold showed corresponding fluctuations [9][16][21]. - Silver: Prices fell from high levels, with a trend intensity of - 1. Comex Silver 2510 dropped by 3.15% [16][21]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The U.S. copper import tariff was implemented, causing prices to be under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the price of New York copper tumbled 20% [23][25]. - **Zinc**: Prices fluctuated narrowly, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. Q2 GDP growth was better than expected, and Trump threatened to impose tariffs on India [26][28]. - **Lead**: Inventory increased, and prices were under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of LME lead increased by 6025 tons [29][30]. - **Tin**: Prices fluctuated within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of SMM 1 tin ingots rose by 3500 yuan/ton [32][36]. - **Aluminum and Related Products** - Aluminum: Prices fluctuated slightly, with a trend intensity of 0. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 51.40 million tons [38][39]. - Alumina: Prices weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of the Shanghai - bonded area premium remained unchanged [38][39]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of三地 increased by 291 tons [38][39]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determined the direction, and fundamentals limited the elasticity, with a trend intensity of 0. Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the U.S. [40][44]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominated the marginal trend, and the real - world situation needed to be improved, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of 304/2B - SS decreased by 50 [40][44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices fluctuated widely, and the impact at the mine end had not materialized, with a trend intensity of - 1. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 211 yuan/ton [45][47]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. partially cancelled tariffs on certain small solar equipment imported from China [48][50]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged [48][50]. - **Other Chemicals** - **Pulp**: It was expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high attention index of ★★★★. The profit of the paper and paper products industry from January to June 2025 decreased by 21.4% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Coal - related Products (Coke, Coking Coal, and Steam Coal)** - Coke: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Coking Coal: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner. - **Petrochemical Products (PTA, MEG, etc.)** - PTA: Cost provided support, and month - spread positive arbitrage was recommended. - MEG: The unilateral trend remained weak, and month - spread reverse arbitrage was recommended. Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, prices fluctuated strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of imported ore such as PB (61.5%) decreased by 8 yuan/ton [51]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)** - Rebar: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of rebar increased by 2.9 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.65 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon)** - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of silicon ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan/ton [59][62]. - Manganese Silicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block increased by 0.5 yuan/ton degree [59][62].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding global market trends and geopolitical events that impact gold and silver investments [3] - It discusses the use of futures contracts to lock in prices and mitigate the risk of market downturns in gold and silver [4][6] - The selection of appropriate precious metal funds should focus on management fees and historical returns, along with the experience and investment strategies of fund managers [6][8] Group 2 - Risk management is highlighted as a critical aspect of trading, including the necessity of setting stop-loss points and conducting comprehensive risk assessments [6][8] - Diversifying the investment portfolio can effectively reduce the impact of market volatility on personal assets, with an increased allocation to gold and silver enhancing financial security [8] - The article concludes that successful gold and silver investment requires a comprehensive consideration of various factors, including market trends and data analysis, to optimize investment strategies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a comprehensive set of guidelines for its hedging activities to mitigate market price volatility risks, ensuring that these activities align with its operational needs and comply with relevant regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Hedging Business Overview - The hedging business includes financial derivatives and commodity futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices [1][2]. - The company must conduct hedging activities in a legal, prudent, safe, and effective manner, ensuring that these activities do not interfere with normal operations or involve speculative trading [2]. Group 2: Organizational Structure - The company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting serve as the decision-making bodies for hedging activities [3]. - A dedicated working group is established to manage hedging activities, comprising key executives such as the chairman, general manager, and financial officers [3][4]. Group 3: Approval Authority - The company must prepare a feasibility analysis report for hedging activities, which requires approval from the board of directors [5]. - Certain transactions, particularly those involving significant financial commitments, must also be submitted for shareholders' approval [5]. Group 4: Risk Management - The company is required to conduct thorough assessments of financial institutions before engaging in hedging activities [27]. - Regular audits and checks are mandated to ensure compliance with risk management policies and to identify any operational risks [28][30]. Group 5: Emergency Procedures - In the event of significant market changes or natural disasters, the company must promptly report and take necessary actions to mitigate risks, including closing or locking positions [37][39]. - Contingency plans are in place for operational disruptions, ensuring that trading can continue through alternative means [40][41]. Group 6: Documentation and Record Keeping - All documentation related to hedging activities, including applications, approvals, and transaction records, must be archived for a minimum of ten years [41]. - The company is responsible for maintaining confidentiality regarding its hedging strategies and financial information [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic sector in the macro and financial area is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global economic upward direction remains unchanged despite the potential significant increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East after the US raid on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] 3. Summary of Key Points Based on the Catalog Important Information - President Trump claimed that Iran's key uranium - enrichment facilities were "completely destroyed" and that the strike on Iranian nuclear facilities was a "huge military victory" [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to punish the US severely and stated that every US citizen and military personnel in the Middle East was a "legitimate target" [1] - Elon Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big - bang" and an "AI tsunami" is coming, predicting that AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [1] - The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [1] - Japan's core inflation rate in May climbed to 3.7%, the highest since January 2023, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - The CEO of X revealed that users will soon be able to invest and trade on the X platform, and the company is exploring launching X - branded credit or debit cards [1] - Citi analysis shows that if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for months, oil prices could reach $90 per barrel, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase but will be short - lived [1] Global Economic Logic - The US raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has significantly escalated Middle East geopolitical risks, and the upward momentum of crude oil prices may far exceed expectations [1] - A phased framework agreement between China and the US has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion [1] - The Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing prosperity [1] - If crude oil prices skyrocket, the global inflation transmission caused by the increase in oil prices will take time. The global economic upward trend remains unchanged [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in 2025, the price fluctuation limits and trading margin levels for all futures contracts will remain unchanged [1] Group 1 - The notice was issued on May 28 by the Dalian Commodity Exchange [1] - The decision indicates a stable regulatory environment for futures trading during the holiday period [1]

Group 1: Hot News - China's latest LPR has been released, with the 1-year LPR dropping to 3% and the 5-year and above LPR dropping to 3.5%, both down 10 basis points, the first cut since October last year. State-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have also cut RMB deposit rates, with the 1-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time [3] - In April, the central general public budget revenue increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the national tax revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, both achieving positive monthly growth for the first time this year. From January to April, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, completing 31.5% of the budget, with the fastest expenditure progress since 2020 [3] - China's gold imports in April reached 127.5 metric tons, a new high in 11 months, a 73% increase from the previous month. Platinum imports also reached a one-year high, with 11.5 tons imported in April [3] - Summer grain procurement is ready across the country, and the peak procurement season is about to begin. It is expected that the procurement volume of new-season summer grain this year will reach about 200 billion catties [4] - As of May 19, the average transaction price of 43% protein soybean meal at major domestic oil mills dropped to 2,970 yuan per ton, a decrease of nearly 900 yuan per ton from the high in late April, reaching the lowest level since mid-January. The customs clearance of imported soybeans in China has accelerated, and the supply will continue to increase [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, plastic, lithium carbonate, soybean meal, PVC [5] - Night trading performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 2.71%, precious metals rose 29.95%, oilseeds and oils rose 12.03%, soft commodities rose 2.51%, non-ferrous metals rose 19.03%, coal, coke, and steel ore rose 13.44%, energy rose 2.67%, chemicals rose 13.28%, grains rose 1.65%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.72% [5] Group 3: Sector Positions - The figure shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% daily, 3.09% monthly, and 0.86% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.49% daily, 7.06% monthly, and 18.05% annually [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily, -0.15% monthly, and -0.08% annually [7] - Commodities: The CRB Commodity Index rose 0.67% daily, 3.26% monthly, and 0.49% annually; London spot gold rose 1.86% daily, 0.03% monthly, and 25.35% annually [7] - Others: The US Dollar Index fell -0.35% daily, 0.38% monthly, and -7.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, -26.56% monthly, and 4.55% annually [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On May 21, the SM2509 contract closed at 5792, down 0.03%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese remained stable at 5600. The supply side has production losses and low enthusiasm for spot production. The inventory of imported manganese ore at ports has increased, and the overall arrival of manganese ore in May is expected to increase month - on - month. The downstream hot metal production shows signs of peaking and falling. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 130 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 250 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On May 21, the SF2507 contract closed at 5620, down 0.85%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 5510. The ferroalloy production profit is currently negative. The cost support has weakened due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The overall demand for steel is still weak. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 60 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5792 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5620 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holdings: 582,287 hands, down 9395 hands; SF futures contract holdings: 444,903 hands, down 3619 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net positions: - 32,888 hands, up 3875 hands; Ferrosilicon top 20 net positions: - 30,956 hands, down 202 hands [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 56 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 46 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 115,203 sheets, down 1846 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 19,519 sheets, down 120 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5560 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5646 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 110 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 192 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block, Tianjin Port: 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4180,000 tons, up 232,000 tons [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 33.60%, down 3.93%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 31.22%, down 1.31% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 162,750 tons, down 9275 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 93,500 tons, down 9400 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory: 207,100 tons, up 25,300 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 73,700 tons, down 9900 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory: 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory: 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 125,632 tons, down 229 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 20,361.5 tons, up 25.2 tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 84.13%, down 0.51%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 91.74%, down 0.37% [2]. - Crude steel production: 86,019,000 tons, down 6,822,400 tons [2]. 6. Industry News - In April 2025, China's raw coal production was 389,306,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the cumulative production from January to April was 1,584,738,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year production of raw coal in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 16.6%, 0.6%, and 3.5% respectively [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will accelerate the construction of new urban infrastructure, use information and digital means to improve the intelligence level of infrastructure, and continue to carry out the construction of complete communities [2]. - On May 20, three pilot residential land parcels for "good houses" were transacted, all located in the core area of the main city, with a premium rate exceeding 25% and a total transaction amount of about 4.249 billion yuan [2]. - The north and south blocks of the Simandou Iron Ore Project are expected to achieve an annual output of 30 million tons each in 2025, with a total of 60 million tons. It is expected that by 2026, the output will double to 60 million tons each, with a total output of 120 million tons [2].

Group 1 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has revised its trading rules, specifically changing the terminology from "products approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission" to "products registered by the China Securities Regulatory Commission" [1] - The revised rules include definitions and specifications for futures and options contracts, emphasizing standardization in terms of contract terms and trading conditions [2] - The changes aim to enhance the regulatory framework and improve the clarity of trading practices within the exchange [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has approved modifications to its trading rules, which will be implemented upon release, emphasizing the priority of public interest and the maintenance of a fair, orderly, and transparent market [1] Group 1 - The modifications to the trading rules were approved by the shareholders' meeting of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1] - The exchange will specify the delivery standards for futures contracts, including standard and alternative delivery items, as well as the basis for price adjustments in the trading rules or implementation details [1] - The exchange will separately establish the price adjustment standards for non-benchmark delivery warehouses compared to benchmark delivery warehouses [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Today, at 9 am, a news conference will be held to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectation management," and it is expected that a series of favorable policies will be released [7]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is weak, but the downside space is limited. The 09 contract has priced in some negative factors, and there is still trading time left. Attention should be paid to the May USDA supply - demand report, US trade negotiations, and US soybean weather [8]. - Industrial silicon is still bearish in the short term. High inventory pressures will cause futures prices to continue to test the cost line of upstream factories, and the strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the short - term trend of the futures is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and the price may have a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - The trend of styrene is weak. After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders of styrene decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on the futures [13]. Summaries by Directory Pre - market Insights - There will be a news conference at 9 am today by the central bank, CSRC, etc. to introduce financial policies, and favorable policies are expected to be released [7]. Recommended by the Director - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Negative factors have been priced in, and the 09 contract still has trading time. Attention should be paid to relevant events [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term bearish. High inventory, high weekly production, and weak downstream demand will lead to price declines. The strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Spot price is expected to decline, and the short - term futures trend is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and there may be a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - **Styrene**: Trend is weak. After the holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [13]. Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold data is better than expected, and silver is oscillating downward. The trend intensity of gold is 1, and that of silver is - 1 [19][23]. - **Copper**: The spot price is firm, supporting the futures price. The trend intensity is 1 [25][27]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum has insufficient upward momentum, and alumina is consolidating at a low level. The trend intensity of aluminum is - 1, and that of alumina is 0 [28][30]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [31][32]. - **Lead**: Under short - term pressure. The trend intensity is - 1 [34]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are back in a narrow - range oscillation, and the downside and upside spaces are converging. The spot price of stainless steel has declined to repair the basis, and there is still support below. The trend intensity of both is 0 [36][38]. - **Tin**: The price weakened during the holiday. The trend intensity is - 1 [40][44]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The weak state of industrial silicon continues, and the fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [46][48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand surplus continues, and the weak pattern may be difficult to change. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The expectation is volatile, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [52][53]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand expectation is poor, and the prices are fluctuating at a low level. The trend intensity of both is 0 [56][60]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: The prices are dragged down by costs and are trending weakly. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [62][66]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by policy expectations, the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The trend intensity of both is 0 [67][69]. - **Steam Coal**: There is a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is in a positive carry trade for the monthly spread, and the processing margin is expanding. The strategy for PTA is to go long PTA and short SC, and for MEG, it is to go long PTA and short MEG [76][77].