Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 87.13 to HKD 94.10, indicating over 25% upside potential from the current price of HKD 68.75 [6][3]. Core Insights - AIA Group is a leading life insurance company in the Asia-Pacific region, with a strong market presence and a robust network of agents and partners [1][15]. - The company achieved an annualized new premium income of USD 8.606 billion and a net profit of USD 6.883 billion for the year 2024, ranking second among listed insurance companies [1][15]. - AIA's new business value (NBV) reached USD 4.712 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18% [35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - AIA Group, headquartered in Hong Kong, has a century-long history and focuses on life insurance in the Asia-Pacific region, covering 18 markets [1][14]. - The company has established a significant market share in various countries, with a strong emphasis on high-quality products and agent recruitment [15][39]. Business Performance - The company maintains a high new business value growth rate, with a new business value contribution from mainland China and Hong Kong consistently above 50% [2][39]. - As of 2024, the new business value distribution is as follows: Mainland China (24.0%), Hong Kong (34.8%), Thailand (16.1%), Singapore (9.0%), Malaysia (6.9%), and others (9.2%) [2][39]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's earnings and financial metrics, predicting a diluted EPS of USD 0.62, USD 0.67, and USD 0.74 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The expected embedded value per share (EVPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be USD 6.83, USD 7.46, and USD 8.22, respectively [5]. Valuation and Market Position - AIA is expected to enjoy a valuation premium due to its top-tier agent quality and global asset allocation strategy [3]. - The company's average P/EV ratio since 2017 is 1.75x, significantly higher than domestic peers, with current valuations at historical lows [3][5]. Strategic Initiatives - AIA has implemented a multi-dimensional agent transformation strategy to enhance agent quality and retention, achieving a high MDRT count of 4,656 agents [2][3]. - The company is expanding its business footprint in mainland China, with recent approvals for new branches in key provinces [41][46].

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group announced the resignation of its independent non-executive chairman and director, Mark Tucker, will return to the company as independent non-executive chairman and director starting October 1, 2025, following the retirement of the current chairman, Sir Mark Tucker, on September 30, 2025 [2][3] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Sir Mark Tucker, currently the chairman of HSBC Group, will return to AIA after an eight-year absence, having previously served as CEO from 2010 to 2017 [2][4] - The board has decided to honor the outgoing chairman, Sir Mark Tucker, with the title of Honorary Chairman for his significant contributions over 60 years [3][4] - The return of Tucker is seen as crucial for AIA's strategic direction, especially as the company accelerates its expansion in mainland China [2][5] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - AIA has been expanding its operations in mainland China, with its subsidiary AIA Life covering 70% of the life insurance market after restructuring in 2020 [7] - In 2024, AIA reported a new business value growth of 18% to $4.712 billion and an annualized new premium increase of 14% to $8.606 billion [7][8] - The company is facing challenges due to changes in product structure and market conditions, which have affected profitability and stock performance [8][9] Group 3: Market Context - The Chinese insurance market has evolved significantly, with total premium income reaching 56,963 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.15% [7] - AIA's product mix is shifting towards long-term savings insurance, which is becoming a major growth driver in a low-interest-rate environment [9] - The demand for participating products is rising, as they offer higher expected returns for policyholders in the current economic climate [9]

Group 1 - AIA Group announced that its independent non-executive chairman and director, Mr. Mark Tucker, will retire on September 30, 2025, with Mr. Du Jiaqi appointed as his successor, pending regulatory approval, effective October 1, 2025 [2] - HSBC Holdings confirmed that Mr. Du Jiaqi will step down as chairman and board member of HSBC Group on September 30, 2025, with Mr. Libor T. taking over as interim chairman [4] - The return of former CEO Du Jiaqi to AIA Group has sparked significant industry interest regarding the company's future strategic direction, marking a critical turning point in response to industry changes [5] Group 2 - AIA Group reported a post-tax operating profit of approximately $6.605 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 7%, with new business value increasing by 18% and annualized new premiums rising by 14% [5] - AIA Life Insurance, a wholly-owned subsidiary in mainland China, achieved a 20% growth in new business value and a 10% increase in annualized new premiums [5] - AIA Group is expanding its business footprint in mainland China, reaching approximately 340 million potential customers across 14 operational regions, with new branches approved in Anhui, Shandong, Chongqing, and Zhejiang, expected to add 100 million potential customers [5] Group 3 - AIA Life Insurance has seen a steady increase in the number of agents, with a registered membership of 4,656, making it the leading life insurance company globally in terms of Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT) membership for three consecutive years, with agent income nearly double the industry average [6] - The execution of the "Top Agents" strategy is expected to enhance AIA Group's competitive differentiation and support stable growth in high-value policies in the Asia-Pacific market [6]