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新季丰产可期 大豆和玉米市场难有亮点
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-27 23:29
Core Viewpoint - The corn prices are expected to decline due to strong expectations of abundant yields in the U.S. and policy auctions, with the opening prices for new crops projected to be slightly higher than last year [1][7]. Group 1: Crop Growth Conditions - The growth conditions for soybeans and corn in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are favorable due to sufficient rainfall and higher accumulated temperatures, with only minor impacts from low temperatures and pests [2][3]. - As of late August, most spring corn is at the silk stage, with some regions entering the milk stage, indicating normal or slightly advanced development [3]. Group 2: Market and Pricing Dynamics - The opening prices for new soybeans are estimated around 2 CNY per jin, while corn is projected between 0.8 to 0.85 CNY per jin, which is higher than last year's prices [2][7]. - The market sentiment among traders is cautious, with many holding back on selling due to previous experiences of missing price rebounds [5][6]. Group 3: Trade and Inventory Management - The current market for old grain is weak, with traders reducing their inventory as new crops approach, leading to a decrease in the market share of old grain [6]. - Traders are expected to actively purchase new crops once they are available, which may provide some support to market prices [1][7]. Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The cost of land leasing has decreased, which may affect farmers' pricing expectations for selling grain, with costs in some regions dropping from 12,000 CNY per mu to between 10,000 to 11,000 CNY per mu [5]. - The overall planting costs for farmers are estimated between 16,000 to 17,000 CNY per mu, which is slightly higher for farms [5].