Core Viewpoint - Domestic corn prices have shown a strong upward trend since late May, driven by reduced imports and weather concerns affecting new season yields [1][2][12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The significant decline in imports of corn and its substitutes (wheat, barley, sorghum) has altered the domestic supply structure, shifting from a previously loose supply-demand balance to a tighter one [2][3] - From January to April, China's total grain and grain powder imports fell to 7.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68.8%, with corn imports dropping by 95.1% to only 440,000 tons [2] - The reduction in imports is attributed to changes in agricultural import policies, international trade relations, and adjustments in domestic crop planting structures [2][3] Group 2: Price Support Factors - The implementation of the minimum purchase price for wheat in Henan has provided support for corn prices, leading to increased buying and stockpiling behavior among traders [6][7] - The current high levels of pig inventory and the initiation of state pork purchases are expected to sustain long-term demand for corn [1][11] Group 3: Weather and Crop Conditions - Despite dry weather conditions in key corn-producing regions, the overall planting progress for summer grains is ahead of previous years, with corn planting continuing smoothly [8][9] - The ongoing drought has raised concerns about the quality and yield of the new corn season, particularly in areas with poor irrigation infrastructure [8][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Market participants anticipate a gradual increase in domestic corn prices, driven by ongoing buying enthusiasm for both corn and wheat [12] - However, the potential for significant price increases may be limited due to substantial existing inventories of domestic and imported corn, as well as abundant stocks of domestic rice [12]

Core Viewpoint - The government has set a target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin (about 700 million tons) for grain production this year, emphasizing the importance of spring management and sowing to ensure a successful summer harvest [1][2]. Group 1: Grain Production Outlook - The current state of grain and oilseed production is promising, with stable winter wheat acreage and a good growth condition for winter oilseed rape, which has seen an increase in area for seven consecutive years [1][3]. - The spring sowing progress is ahead of last year, with nearly 20% of the national spring grain sowing completed as of mid-April, including over 70% for early rice and over 60% for middle rice [2][3]. Group 2: Support Measures and Strategies - The government continues to enhance support for grain production by raising minimum purchase prices for wheat and early indica rice, stabilizing subsidies for corn and soybeans, and implementing comprehensive cost insurance for rice, wheat, and corn [3][4]. - A focus on improving grain yield through the "Four Good" strategy (good land, good seeds, good machinery, and good methods) aims to achieve breakthroughs in large-scale yield increases [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Domestic grain prices have stabilized and begun to rise since February, with stable prices for staple grains like rice and wheat, while corn and soybean prices have increased [4][5]. - The recovery in the grain market is attributed to effective regulatory measures, improved demand due to consumption policies, and a positive outlook among trade and processing enterprises [5].

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 王悦 北京报道 人间四月天，春耕正当时！ 4月18日，农业农村部总农艺师、种植业管理司司长潘文博在新闻发布会上介绍2025年一季度农业农村 经济运行情况时表示，粮油生产开局较好。紧盯实现今年粮食产量1.4万亿斤左右目标，环环紧扣抓好 春管春耕，打牢夏粮和全年粮食丰收基础。"据我部农情调度，冬小麦面积保持稳定，拔节期一二类苗 比例91.2%，与上年相当、好于常年；冬油菜面积稳中有增，长势好于上年和常年。春耕春播进展总体 顺利，全国春播粮食已完成近两成，进度同比略快。" 值得注意的是，今年以来，国内粮食市场发生了积极变化，价格止跌企稳并有所回升。分品种看，稻 谷、小麦两个口粮品种价格基本稳定，玉米、大豆价格上涨。 "价格的变动对我国粮食市场影响广泛。稻谷、小麦作为口粮品种价格基本稳定，极大地保障了居民基 本生活需求，稳定了民生预期。民众无需担忧主食价格大幅波动，能够安心生活，这对于社会的稳定和 谐至关重要。而玉米、大豆价格上涨，从生产端来看，刺激了农民种植积极性。农民预期收益增加，会 更愿意投入资源进行种植，有利于扩大种植面积，保障后续供应。在市场流通环 ...