Core Viewpoint - The corn prices are expected to decline due to strong expectations of abundant yields in the U.S. and policy auctions, with the opening prices for new crops projected to be slightly higher than last year [1][7]. Group 1: Crop Growth Conditions - The growth conditions for soybeans and corn in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are favorable due to sufficient rainfall and higher accumulated temperatures, with only minor impacts from low temperatures and pests [2][3]. - As of late August, most spring corn is at the silk stage, with some regions entering the milk stage, indicating normal or slightly advanced development [3]. Group 2: Market and Pricing Dynamics - The opening prices for new soybeans are estimated around 2 CNY per jin, while corn is projected between 0.8 to 0.85 CNY per jin, which is higher than last year's prices [2][7]. - The market sentiment among traders is cautious, with many holding back on selling due to previous experiences of missing price rebounds [5][6]. Group 3: Trade and Inventory Management - The current market for old grain is weak, with traders reducing their inventory as new crops approach, leading to a decrease in the market share of old grain [6]. - Traders are expected to actively purchase new crops once they are available, which may provide some support to market prices [1][7]. Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The cost of land leasing has decreased, which may affect farmers' pricing expectations for selling grain, with costs in some regions dropping from 12,000 CNY per mu to between 10,000 to 11,000 CNY per mu [5]. - The overall planting costs for farmers are estimated between 16,000 to 17,000 CNY per mu, which is slightly higher for farms [5].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector in China is experiencing a positive start in 2025, with a focus on achieving a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, supported by favorable weather conditions and government policies [2][4][8]. Grain Production and Market Conditions - The area planted with winter wheat remains stable, with 91.2% of crops in good condition, and the area for winter rapeseed has increased, showing better growth compared to previous years [2][4]. - Spring planting progress is ahead of last year, with nearly 20% of spring grain sowing completed as of mid-April, including over 70% of early rice and over 60% of medium rice planted [5][6]. - The domestic grain market has seen positive changes, with prices stabilizing and recovering, particularly for rice and wheat, while corn and soybean prices have increased [3][7]. Government Support and Policies - The central government is increasing support for grain production by raising minimum purchase prices for wheat and early indica rice, stabilizing subsidies for corn and soybeans, and implementing comprehensive cost and income insurance for key crops [6][9]. - These measures aim to ensure farmers have guaranteed income, thereby stabilizing and expanding grain planting areas [6][9]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The recovery in grain prices is attributed to effective government regulation, improved demand, and better market expectations, with a notable increase in grain purchasing speed [7][8]. - Future market trends suggest a secure supply due to last year's production achievements, enhanced regulatory capacity, and a steady increase in demand driven by changing consumer preferences [8][9].