Core Viewpoint - The corn prices are expected to decline due to strong expectations of abundant yields in the U.S. and policy auctions, with the opening prices for new crops projected to be slightly higher than last year [1][7]. Group 1: Crop Growth Conditions - The growth conditions for soybeans and corn in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are favorable due to sufficient rainfall and higher accumulated temperatures, with only minor impacts from low temperatures and pests [2][3]. - As of late August, most spring corn is at the silk stage, with some regions entering the milk stage, indicating normal or slightly advanced development [3]. Group 2: Market and Pricing Dynamics - The opening prices for new soybeans are estimated around 2 CNY per jin, while corn is projected between 0.8 to 0.85 CNY per jin, which is higher than last year's prices [2][7]. - The market sentiment among traders is cautious, with many holding back on selling due to previous experiences of missing price rebounds [5][6]. Group 3: Trade and Inventory Management - The current market for old grain is weak, with traders reducing their inventory as new crops approach, leading to a decrease in the market share of old grain [6]. - Traders are expected to actively purchase new crops once they are available, which may provide some support to market prices [1][7]. Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The cost of land leasing has decreased, which may affect farmers' pricing expectations for selling grain, with costs in some regions dropping from 12,000 CNY per mu to between 10,000 to 11,000 CNY per mu [5]. - The overall planting costs for farmers are estimated between 16,000 to 17,000 CNY per mu, which is slightly higher for farms [5].

Group 1: Silicon Manganese - The production of silicon manganese is decreasing, with reductions expanding in Inner Mongolia and Chongqing, leading to a significant decline in output [1] - The continuous decline in market prices is causing hedging profits to turn into losses, resulting in a decrease in warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [1] - Demand remains strong with high pig iron production and recovering steel mill profits, while low inventory levels persist, indicating resilience in finished product demand [1] - Global manganese ore shipments have decreased, particularly due to a sharp drop in arrivals from South Africa, leading to a reduction in port inventories [1] - Despite the decrease in port inventories, future manganese ore shipments are expected to remain high, putting pressure on port traders due to negative profit margins [1] - Short-term expectations indicate that silicon manganese prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, with support strengthening as warehouse receipts decrease [1] Group 2: Silicon Iron - Recent environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are expected to lead to a reduction in daily production by approximately 800 tons from major producers [2] - Overall, silicon iron daily production has decreased, alleviating supply pressure, although inventory levels remain at a medium to high level [2] - Demand for iron remains high, with steel mill profits recovering and resilient demand for finished products, while non-steel demand for magnesium metal is limited due to cautious purchasing [2] - The cost side shows stable prices for raw materials like Lantan, with limited supply-demand conflicts [2] - Future expectations suggest that the supply-demand imbalance for silicon iron is easing, with potential price stabilization and rebound driven by valuation recovery and macroeconomic factors [2]