Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated narrowly below 78,000 yuan today, with a slight decline in open interest. Due to tariff impacts, the uncertainty of copper has increased, causing the price to rise and then fall, and the market's attention to copper has rapidly declined. The short - term speculative nature of copper has decreased, and its volatility may continue to decline. The continuous rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on copper prices. The basis and calendar spread have continued to weaken, indicating a loosening of spot supply during the industrial off - season. After the copper price dropped, downstream industries showed a strong willingness to replenish inventory, providing support for the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 78,000 - yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated narrowly around 20,400 yuan today, with little change in open interest. Entering the off - season, the downstream operating rate has decreased, the basis and calendar spread of electrolytic aluminum have weakened, and inventory has started to rise. On July 17, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 471,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from Monday this week and up 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment may stabilize the aluminum price. However, the decline in off - season demand and high upstream profits are not conducive to the upward movement of the aluminum price. Technically, the main aluminum futures price has stabilized in the vicinity of the 40 - day moving average, and it is expected to move in a fluctuating manner [6]. - **Nickel**: The main nickel futures price fluctuated below 120,000 yuan today, and briefly reached above the 120,000 - yuan mark in the afternoon, with a slight decline in open interest. Since this week, the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole has shown a trend of fluctuating and stabilizing, and the positive domestic macro - environment has provided support for non - ferrous metals. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. Recently, the inventory at upstream ports has continued to rise, and the supply at the ore end has become looser, weakening the support for the nickel price. Technically, continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 120,000 - yuan level [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 11.765 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In June, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 7.363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The top three provinces in terms of copper product output from January to June were Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, with Jiangxi's copper product output reaching 2.8595 million tons [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June 2025, China's alumina output was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the aluminum product output was 5.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.768 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In June, the aluminum alloy output was 166,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 909,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. From January to June, Shandong ranked first in output with 7.2632 million tons, Henan ranked second with 5.8375 million tons, and Guangxi ranked third with 2.3962 million tons [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 17, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel's mainstream premium was +2050 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,530 yuan/ton; the Russian nickel's mainstream premium was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,030 yuan/ton; the Norwegian nickel's mainstream premium was +3600 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,080 yuan/ton; and the nickel bean's mainstream premium was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,580 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents multiple charts related to copper, including the copper basis, copper calendar spread, domestic and overseas copper inventories, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE copper warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on the aluminum basis, aluminum calendar spread, domestic and overseas aluminum inventories, alumina price trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts on the nickel basis, LME nickel inventory, SHFE nickel inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价冲高回落，主力期价由昨日的 7.8 万一线回落至 7.7 万 一线。短期铜价已修复至 2 月的水平，精废价差有所走阔，产业支撑 较强但推动意愿会有所下降。美元指数大幅下挫后迎来反弹，一定 程度上也将抑制铜价上涨。短期关注 5 日均线支撑，预计期价将趋于 震荡运行。 沪铝 今日铝价围绕 1.99 万一线窄幅震荡。Mysteel 报道，华东现货市 场表现弱稳运行，铝价涨至近期高位，基差延续下调，持货商挺价控 制节奏 ...