Group 1: Hot News - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, France, reaching new consensuses and agreeing to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [2] - China's economic report card for the first two months of the "15th Five - Year Plan" shows that national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, excluding real estate development investment which increased by 5.2%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.1%. Industrial added value of large - scale industries grew by 6.3%, the service production index by 5.2%, and total retail sales of consumer goods by 2.8% [2] - US President Trump said that after attacking military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, attacking the island's oil infrastructure remains an option. Trump hopes European countries, Japan, and South Korea will assist in ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but German Chancellor Merz said Germany will not participate in escorting [2] - China's February housing price data for 70 cities shows that the month - on - month decline in housing prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow. The number of cities with rising or flat new - home prices increased by 9 compared to January. First - tier cities' new - home prices turned flat from a decline, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2%, Guangzhou flat, and Shenzhen down 0.3%. First - tier cities' second - hand home prices fell 0.1% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points; second - and third - tier cities' second - hand home prices fell 0.4% and 0.5% respectively [3] - Tangshan lifted the level - II emergency response to heavy pollution weather on March 14, 2026. Affected by this, steel - rolling enterprises that had stopped production due to environmental protection restrictions began to resume production [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, caustic soda, crude oil, and PP [4] - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.37%, precious metals 28.61%, oilseeds and oils 8.55%, soft commodities 2.42%, non - ferrous metals 23.35%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 8.55%, energy 7.84%, chemicals 14.77%, grains 0.96%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.58% [4] - Changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days are presented for various sectors including agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel, and minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc [5] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Performance of major asset classes: For equities, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.26%, a monthly decline of 1.88%, and an annual increase of 2.92%. Other indices like the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc. also had different performance. For fixed - income products, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had different changes. For commodities, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc. showed various trends. The US dollar index and CBOE volatility also had their own performance [6] Group 4: Main Commodity Trends - The report shows the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, and also presents the relationships like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, as well as risk premiums related to stock indices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile, and the impact of stock indices should continue to be monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Wednesday, the opening prices of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures varied. The 30 - year variety opened significantly higher. Most main contracts fluctuated horizontally in the morning and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.75%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.01%. [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly lower, rose in the morning and then fluctuated horizontally. It closed 0.57% higher than the previous trading day, with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.62 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 2.80 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday. With 240.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 122.7 billion yuan. [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined on Wednesday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, compared with 1.37% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% in the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds on Wednesday showed mixed changes compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds rose 0.45 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year rose 0.19 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 0.14 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year fell 3.25 BP to 2.30%. [1] - The Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, stated that the policy of implementing measures according to the city, precise policies, and one - city - one - policy will continue. The focus is on controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies. The "white - list" system for real - estate financing will be utilized to support the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises and the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations. The year - on - year actual growth rates of export and industrial added value above designated size both exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. [1] - In December last year, the year - on - year sales volume and housing prices of domestic real estate continued to decline, and the data from the first half of January this year also showed the same trend. The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates starting from January 19, 2026, and stated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts throughout the year. [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth of China's service industry, with a projected increase in value added by 5.4% in 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Service Industry Growth - The value added in the information transmission, software, and IT services sector is expected to grow by 11.1% [1] - The leasing and business services sector is projected to increase by 10.3% [1] - The transportation, warehousing, and postal services sector is anticipated to grow by 5.2% [1] - The wholesale and retail sector is expected to see a growth of 5.0% [1] - The accommodation and catering sector is projected to grow by 4.9% [1] Group 2: Production and Business Activity Indices - In December, the service production index increased by 5.0% year-on-year [1] - The production indices for the information transmission, software, and IT services sector, leasing and business services sector, and financial sector grew by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5% respectively [1] - From January to November, the operating revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.8% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Business Activity Indices - The business activity index for the service industry in December was 49.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The business activity expectation index for the service industry rose to 56.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] - Industries such as telecommunications, broadcasting, television, satellite transmission services, monetary financial services, and capital market services all had business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating a high level of prosperity [1]

Core Insights - The national service production index in China increased by 4.2% year-on-year in November, indicating a positive trend in the service sector [2] - The information transmission, software and IT services, leasing and business services, and financial sectors showed significant growth, with production indices rising by 12.9%, 8.4%, and 5.1% respectively, outpacing the overall service production index [2] - For the period from January to November, the national service production index grew by 5.6%, while the revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.6% year-on-year from January to October [2] Industry Performance - The service business activity index stood at 49.5% in November, while the business activity expectation index was at 55.9%, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the service industry [2] - Specific sectors such as railway transportation, telecommunications, and financial services reported business activity indices above 55.0%, reflecting a high level of economic activity [2] - The railway sector experienced record-breaking performance, with a total of 3.95 billion passengers transported in the first ten months of the year, marking a historical high for the same period [2]

Core Insights - The national service production index in July increased by 5.8% year-on-year [1] - The information transmission, software and IT services, financial services, and leasing and business services sectors saw production index growth of 11.9%, 8.7%, and 8.0% respectively, outpacing the overall service production index by 6.1, 2.9, and 2.2 percentage points [1] - From January to July, the national service production index grew by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Industry Performance - For the first half of the year, revenue from large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.5% year-on-year [1] - The service business activity index for July was recorded at 50.0%, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.6% [1] - Specific sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment had business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1]