文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 上半年各地区主要经济数据 7.2 上半年GDP累计增速(%) 7 6.3 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.1 ද 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 3.8 15 , 15 a 10 18 175 d R , 18 17 . 16 th The t the mo 3015 RS III at Illy 14 Tip PD The tery tt State 25 21.7 20 上半年地产销售额累计增速(%) 13.3 15 11.2 9.5 10 5.4 2.9 5 1.6 0 -1.2 -5 -2.5-0.7 -2.9 -2.1 -2.7 -3.3 -4.3 -4.4 -5.4 -5.1-4.3 -6.3 -10 -8.5 -8.910.6 -9.1 -9.6 -10 -10.6 -15 -12.5 -14 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for June and the second quarter suggests a low but stable growth trajectory, with GDP growth expected around 5.3% in Q2, supported by new domestic policies and resilient exports [2][4]. Group 1: GDP and Economic Growth - Q2 GDP growth is projected at approximately 5.3%, with industrial production growth expected at 5.9% due to equipment upgrades and resilient exports [4][11]. - Retail sector growth is anticipated to rebound, with wholesale and retail expected to grow by 6.8% in Q2, up from 5.8% in Q1 [4][11]. - High growth is expected in the information and leasing service sectors [4]. Group 2: Production Sector - June industrial production growth is expected to be around 6.0%, with a PMI production index increase to 51% [5][15]. - Truck traffic on highways shows a growth of 2.0% in June, improving from previous months [5][15]. - The automotive wholesale growth rate is projected at 14.1%, indicating strong performance in the automotive manufacturing sector [5][15]. Group 3: Demand Side - Retail sales growth is expected to temporarily decline to around 4.6% in June, influenced by holiday timing and promotional activities [6][20]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decrease to approximately 3.4% for the first half of the year, with manufacturing investment at 8.1% and real estate investment at -11.2% [6][19]. - June export growth is expected to be around 3.5%, while imports are projected to grow by 1% [7][17]. Group 4: Financial Sector - New social financing in June is expected to reach 3.8 trillion, an increase of 600 billion compared to the previous year, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for social financing stock [8][21]. - M2 money supply is expected to grow by approximately 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 is projected to grow by 2.9% [8][21]. - Government and corporate bond issuance is expected to total around 1.8 trillion in June, with significant net financing increases compared to the previous year [8][21].