受去年"924"新政后销售放量形成的高基数影响，二手房和新房销售同比增速均承压。本周 15 城二手 房成交面积同比下降 21%，已连续第五周走弱（此前曾连续七周同比改善）；38 城新房成交面积同比跌幅为 34%，已连续第七周录得负增长。然而，若与 2023 年同期比较以剔除高基数扰动，本周成交表现有所改善。 15 城二手房成交面积较 23 年同期增长 14%，增速较上周（+4%）明显回升；38 城新房成交面积较 23 年同期 下跌 21%，降幅亦较上周（下跌 36%）显著收窄。 2）月度： 证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 一线城市二手房价领跌 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）周度： 二手房成交连续两周下滑后微增。本周（11 月 7-13 日），15 城二手房成交面积为 219 万平方米，环比增 长 3%，但仍处于过去四周（213–233 万平）区间的低位，约相当于年内高点的 74%。 新房亦自近期低点小幅回升。38城新房成交面积为 220 万平方米，环比小幅增长 2%，同样位于过去四周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - After the National Day holiday, the property market transactions showed a pattern of "pulsatile rebound and weekly decline." Both second - hand and new home sales cooled down, with new home sales hitting a low in nearly seven weeks, and the decline in transaction volume accelerating compared to the previous week [1][2]. - High - base effects from the same period last year continued to suppress year - on - year growth rates, while the comparison with 2023 showed that second - hand home sales growth slowed and new home sales declines widened [1][2]. - First - tier cities' property markets also faced downward pressure, with both second - hand and new home sales experiencing significant week - on - week and year - on - year declines, and new home sales being weaker [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Conditions - **Second - hand Homes**: In the week from October 31st to November 6th, the transaction area of second - hand homes in 15 cities was 2.13 million square meters, a 6% week - on - week decrease, at the lower end of the past four - week range and about 72% of the annual high. Year - on - year, it decreased by 24%, and compared with 2023, the growth rate slowed from 8% to 4% [1][2]. - **New Homes**: The transaction area of new homes in 38 cities was 2.16 million square meters, a 26% week - on - week drop, reaching the lowest point in nearly seven weeks and about 41% of the annual high. Year - on - year, the decline widened to 41%, and compared with 2023, the decline increased from 31% to 36% [1][2]. 2. First - tier City Performance - **Week - on - Week**: Second - hand home sales in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou decreased by 9% in total, with Beijing and Shanghai dropping by 14% and 7% respectively, and Shenzhen by 1%. New home sales in these four cities decreased by 20% in total, with Beijing leading the decline at 35%, followed by Guangzhou at 26%, Shenzhen at 16%, and Shanghai at 4% [3]. - **Year - on - Year**: Second - hand home sales in first - tier cities decreased by 19% in total, with Shenzhen and Beijing down 33% and 24% respectively. New home sales decreased by 41%, with Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai down 70%, 47%, and 36% respectively, and Guangzhou down 19% [3]. - **Compared with 2023**: Second - hand home sales in first - tier cities maintained a stable growth of 32% - 37% in the past four weeks, while new home sales remained weak, with a decline of 18% - 33% [3]. 3. Other Major City Observations - **Hangzhou**: Second - hand home sales decreased by 21% week - on - week, equivalent to 39% of the annual high, and new home sales decreased by 42%, equivalent to 25% of the annual high [26]. - **Chengdu**: Second - hand home sales increased by 2% week - on - week, equivalent to 70% of the annual high, and new home sales decreased by 16%, equivalent to 58% of the annual high [26]. 4. Housing Price Observation - From October 27th to November 2nd, the weekly listing prices of second - hand homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.42%, 0.37%, and 0.40% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, they decreased by 3.8%, 10.3%, and 10.0% respectively [46].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting the significant increase in share reduction plans by listed companies and the implications for various industries, particularly electronics and semiconductors. Group 1: Share Reduction Plans - As of September 2025, a total of 1,979 listed companies have announced share reduction plans involving 3,597 individuals, with an expected reduction amount exceeding 380 billion [3] - The scale of share reductions in 2025 is significantly larger than the 170 billion in 2024, with over 60% of the reductions occurring during the index rise from May to July [3] - The electronics, computer, and machinery equipment sectors lead in share reduction amounts, with the electronics sector accounting for nearly 20% of total reductions in A-shares [3] Group 2: Market Valuation Comparison - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,000 points is 2.87, compared to 5 around the same index level in April 2015, indicating a substantial decrease in valuation [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has also dropped from 67 times in 2015 to 28.11 currently, suggesting that the current market valuation is significantly lower than in the past [5] - Similar trends are observed in the CSI 500 index, where the PB ratio has decreased from 4.6 to 2.23, and the PE ratio from 50 to 24.33 [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Government Role - The government can provide short-term stimulation to the stock market but cannot sustain long-term growth without consistent economic growth, profit sharing through dividends, and regulatory reforms [10] - There is a consensus that the government’s intervention in the stock market is often temporary, with significant volatility following such interventions [11] - The perception of market consensus among retail investors is less critical than that of major shareholders and institutions, whose strategies and sentiments are less transparent [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emotional and financial significance of home ownership for ordinary people, highlighting the rising property prices in major cities and the emergence of fraudulent practices like "house washing" as a result of these pressures [1][3][12]. Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - Over the past two decades, property prices in major cities like Beijing have skyrocketed, making home ownership increasingly unattainable for young people [1][3]. - Many individuals find it nearly impossible to save enough for a down payment in first-tier cities, leading to feelings of despair and frustration [3][12]. Group 2: "House Washing" Explained - "House washing" refers to fraudulent schemes where individuals deceive others into transferring property ownership under the guise of marriage, often involving fake commitments and legal loopholes [5][6]. - This practice is particularly prevalent in high-priced housing markets, where the pressure to own property drives some to resort to unethical means [6][12]. Group 3: Real-Life Consequences - Numerous real-life cases illustrate the devastating impact of "house washing," where victims lose their homes and face emotional trauma, leading to family breakdowns and financial ruin [8][9][10][12]. - The psychological toll on victims is significant, with many experiencing anxiety, depression, and a loss of trust in relationships [12][13]. Group 4: Societal Implications - The rise of "house washing" not only affects individuals but also threatens the integrity of marriage as a social institution, fostering a culture of mistrust and materialism [12][18]. - The normalization of viewing property ownership as a measure of success can lead to a decline in marriage rates and a shift in societal values [12][18]. Group 5: Preventive Measures - The article emphasizes the importance of clear communication regarding financial matters before marriage, including the necessity of legal documentation to protect individual assets [14][15][16]. - Seeking legal advice before adding names to property titles is crucial to avoid potential exploitation [15][16]. - In cases of "house washing," victims are encouraged to seek legal assistance promptly to protect their rights and recover losses [17].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a mixed performance, with new home prices showing slight increases in some cities while second-hand home prices continue to decline, indicating ongoing market adjustments [3][10][11]. New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.09% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [5][6]. - The third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47% in new home prices, although the growth rate slowed compared to the second quarter [5]. - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, showed stronger performance with new home prices rising by 0.82% and 0.32% respectively in September [6][8]. - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects in core cities, which is expected to support new home sales [10][11]. Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [10][11]. - Second-hand home prices have been declining for 41 consecutive months, with a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [10][11]. - The decline in second-hand home prices is particularly pronounced in second-tier cities, which experienced a month-on-month drop of 0.87% in September [11][13]. Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by a significant disparity between first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities, with the latter struggling with inventory issues and price declines [8][10]. - Policies aimed at improving housing quality and easing purchasing restrictions in key cities are being implemented to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [15][16]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the second-hand market due to high inventory levels [15][16].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the results of the Q2 2025 survey indicating that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][3][4] Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, with values of 49.3% and 53.2% respectively, indicating a slight improvement in business sentiment [3] - 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [3] - The survey revealed that 32.5% of entrepreneurs expect to "increase profits or reduce losses," an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Group 2: Banker Insights - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 was 33.2%, a decrease from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [4] - 50% of bankers rated the monetary policy as loose, with a monetary policy sentiment index of 74.6%, which is high [4] - The banker’s expectation for the macroeconomic heat index for Q3 is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to Q2 [4] Group 3: Resident Insights - In a survey of urban residents, 69.7% reported that their income remained stable in Q2, with a cautious outlook on employment [5] - 51.5% of residents perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards job security [5] - 32.1% of residents plan to increase spending on tourism, surpassing education as the top choice for additional expenditures [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance is neutral but cautious, with over half of the respondents perceiving the current economic situation as stable [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Sentiment - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][9]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [5]. - The entrepreneur's macroeconomic heat index stands at 26.0%, which is a decrease from the previous quarter [5]. - The perception of product sales prices and raw material purchase prices remaining stable is reported by 71.2% and 75.5% of entrepreneurs, respectively [7]. Group 2: Banker Sentiment - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is recorded at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [11]. - The bankers' sentiment towards monetary policy is positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative [14]. - The bankers' macroeconomic heat expectation index for the third quarter is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the second quarter [11]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - The urban residents' survey indicates a cautious outlook on employment, with 51.5% perceiving the job market as severe [17]. - Approximately 69.7% of residents believe their income situation remains unchanged in the second quarter [16]. - The top spending intention among residents for the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [19]. Group 4: Economic Policy and Market Response - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary and financial policies to stabilize the economy, which has positively impacted market confidence [12]. - The overall demand for loans has decreased compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a cautious lending environment [15].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - China's H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% YoY increase. Q1 GDP rose 5.4% YoY, and Q2 grew 5.2%. H1 fixed - asset investment increased 2.8%, with real - estate development investment down 11.2%. In June, industrial added - value of large - scale enterprises rose 6.8% YoY, and retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.8% [3] - In June, according to 70 - city housing price data, housing prices in all tiers declined MoM, with the YoY decline narrowing. 14 cities saw new - home prices rise MoM, led by Shanghai and Changsha with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose MoM [3] - The EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia due to opposition from Malta and Slovakia. The sanctions target Russia's energy revenue [3] - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted for export, deleting 3 items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The newly restricted export technology is battery cathode material preparation technology [3] - US CPI in June rose 2.7% YoY, the highest since February, meeting market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both below expectations. Traders predict the Fed will start cutting rates in September, with nearly two cuts by the end of the year [4] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, PVC, hot - rolled coil, and soybean oil [5] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.88%, precious metals 28.77%, oilseeds and oils 12.23%, non - ferrous metals 2.80%, soft commodities 18.96%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.40%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 12.70%, grains 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [5] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.42 | 1.76 | 4.57 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.38 | 1.30 | 2.33 | | | CSI 300 | 0.03 | 2.11 | 2.14 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.03 | 1.75 | 5.12 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.40 | 0.63 | 6.16 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.60 | 2.15 | 22.58 | | | German DAX | - 0.42 | 0.63 | 20.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.55 | - 2.00 | - 0.54 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.66 | 2.02 | 9.36 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.18 | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.13 | - 0.13 | - 0.48 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | 0.04 | - 0.08 | - 0.54 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.23 | 1.82 | 2.02 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.39 | 2.65 | - 7.23 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.59 | 0.64 | 26.64 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.37 | 9.82 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.17 | 1.86 | 15.92 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.53 | 1.92 | - 9.08 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 2.81 | - 0.86 | [8]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is sending a severe warning to the U.S. economy, with high home prices and interest rates suppressing sales and creating a challenging environment for buyers and builders [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The housing market is expected to become a significant headwind for economic growth, described as a "red signal flare" by Mark Zandi [2]. - Unless mortgage rates, currently near 7%, decrease significantly, home sales, new constructions, and prices are likely to decline sharply [2]. - The Federal Housing Finance Agency director has called for interest rate cuts, criticizing the Federal Reserve's actions as unjust [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has reached 6.83%, leading to high monthly payments for homebuyers, such as $2,900 for a $425,000 home with a 10% down payment [2]. - Despite an increase in available listings, buyer interest remains low, with builders abandoning promotional strategies due to high costs [2]. - Many builders are delaying land purchases, indicating a rapid decline in new home sales, starts, and completions [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. home price growth will hit a 14-year low this year, with only a 0.5% increase expected in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, significantly lower than previous forecasts [3][5]. - The stagnation in prices, increased supply, and high interest rates are identified as the main factors affecting the market [5]. - Approximately 15% of the 381 cities surveyed by Goldman Sachs may see home prices drop by over 5% in the next two years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market remains constrained due to affordability issues, despite a slight increase in existing home sales in May 2023, reflecting the ongoing challenges faced by buyers [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Data - In May 2023, existing home sales totaled an annualized 4.03 million units, exceeding expectations of 3.95 million units and slightly up from the previous month's 4 million units [1]. - Month-over-month, existing home sales increased by 0.8%, contrary to the expected decline of 1.3% [1]. - Year-over-year, existing home sales decreased by 4% [1]. - May 2023 marked only the second increase in existing home sales this year, yet it represented the weakest May performance since 2009 [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Prices - Housing inventory rose by 6.2% in May, reaching 1.54 million units, the highest level in five years [1]. - The median sales price in May increased by 1.3% year-over-year to $422,800, setting a record for the same period [2]. - Over the past five years, home prices have cumulatively risen by 51% [2]. - Despite an increase in inventory, home prices have not declined significantly, indicating a resilient market overall [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - High mortgage rates, currently near 7%, are identified as a primary factor contributing to low sales volumes, with expectations of rates remaining above 6% for at least the next year [1][3]. - The luxury market, defined as homes priced at $1 million or more, is experiencing sales performance that is not superior to lower-priced homes [4]. - In May, 60% of homes sold within a month of listing, consistent with April's figures, while 28% sold above the listing price, down from 30% in May of the previous year [4]. - The South region saw a 1.7% increase in existing home sales, with an annualized sales volume of 1.84 million units, while the West region experienced a 5.4% decline [4]. Group 4: Buyer Composition - Individual investors or buyers of second homes accounted for 17% of sales in May, up from 15% in April, while cash transactions made up 27% of total sales [4]. - First-time homebuyers represented 30% of the sales volume, indicating their ongoing efforts to enter the market [4]. - Existing home sales constitute approximately 90% of the U.S. real estate market sales volume, with data reflecting decisions made in the preceding months [4].