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有色套利早报-20250701
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 05:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 1, 2025. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 1, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,990, the LME price was 10,059, and the ratio was 7.97; the three - month price was 79,680, the LME price was 9,878, and the ratio was 8.07. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a loss of 1,666.99, and a profit of 1,406.63 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,500, the LME price was 2,770, and the ratio was 8.12; the three - month price was 22,445, the LME price was 2,780, and the ratio was 6.17. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.64, with a loss of 1,440.41 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,780, the LME price was 2,598, and the ratio was 8.00; the three - month price was 20,495, the LME price was 2,599, and the ratio was 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.54, with a loss of 1,404.94 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,900, the LME price was 15,025, and the ratio was 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.23, with a loss of 2,486.93 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,925, the LME price was 2,021, and the ratio was 8.39; the three - month price was 17,225, the LME price was 2,049, and the ratio was 10.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a loss of 875.89 [2]. Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 210, - 400, - 640, and - 870 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 502, 903, 1312, and 1722 [3]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 5, - 45, - 100, and - 155, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, and 580 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 200, - 285, - 385, and - 490, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [3]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 125, 150, 130, and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 530 [3]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 510, 590, 730, and 850 [3]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 1410, and the theoretical spread was 5538 [3]. Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 105 and - 105, and the theoretical spreads were 301 and 714 [3]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 10 and - 5, and the theoretical spreads were 130 and 261 [3]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 150 and 275, and the theoretical spreads were 151 and 264 [4]. Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.55, 3.89, 4.63, 0.91, 1.19, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.59, 3.80, 4.83, 0.94, 1.27, and 0.74 [4].
有色套利早报-20250508
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 01:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on May 8, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On May 8, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,575, LME price was 9,498, and the ratio was 8.23; the three - month domestic price was 77,410, LME price was 9,477, and the ratio was 8.22. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.27, with a profit of 52.52, and the profit for spot export was - 1.20 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,840, LME price was 2,582, and the ratio was 8.85; the three - month domestic price was 21,955, LME price was 2,619, and the ratio was 6.36. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.75, with a profit of 236.34 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 19,620, LME price was 2,369, and the ratio was 8.27; the three - month domestic price was 19,400, LME price was 2,398, and the ratio was 8.16. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.76, with a profit of - 1153.53 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 125,650, LME price was 15,479, and the ratio was 8.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.31, with a profit of - 3755.62 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,600, LME price was 1,907, and the ratio was 8.68; the three - month domestic price was 16,690, LME price was 1,924, and the ratio was 11.57. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.97, with a profit of - 562.77 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month were - 120, - 500, - 860, and - 1170 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 492, 881, 1280, and 1678 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 555, - 810, - 965, and - 1040, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 340, 462, and 585 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 460, - 525, - 565, and - 585, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 322, 434, and 546 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 70, 65, and 50, and the theoretical spreads were 208, 312, 416, and 520 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 0, 200, 390, and 530 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 320, and the theoretical spread was 5421 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 665 and - 785, and the theoretical spreads were 86 and 503 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and - 630, and the theoretical spreads were 9 and 142 (also mentioned as 146 and 197) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 20 and 100, and the theoretical spreads were 105 and 216 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On May 8, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.53, 3.99, 4.64, 0.88, 1.16, and 0.76 respectively; for LME (three - continuous) were 3.60, 3.95, 4.81, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.75 [5]