Report Industry Investment Rating - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [9] Core View - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and contract price trends. Pay attention to the actual implementation of price increase letters in November and December, and the price adjustment of 10 - month contracts. The 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm of price increase, and the 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference [1][7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 61,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,960 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1429.20, 1119.90, 1281.20, 1410.80, 1100.90, and 1651.10 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Different shipping alliances have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's 43 - week quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was 1100/1840, and the 44 - week quote was 1194/2010; HPL's price in the second half of October was 1185/1935, and the price in the first half of November was 1535/2535, with a quote of 1735/2835 for the second - half - month shipping schedule in November. Many shipping companies have issued price increase letters [1] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the average weekly capacity from China to European base ports showed different trends. In October, the average weekly capacity in the remaining three weeks was 276,100 TEU. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 302,800 TEU, and in December, it was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] 4. Supply Chain - There are geopolitical factors affecting the supply chain. For example, Israeli officials denied the start of the second - stage negotiations on the Gaza cease - fire, and the Houthi armed forces confirmed the death of their armed forces chief of staff. Also, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., and it is not yet known whether it will affect HMM's operations [3][4] 5. Demand and European Economy - The report does not provide direct information on demand and the European economy, but the shipping market is closely related to European economic conditions. The shipping companies' price adjustment strategies are related to the expected demand and economic situation in the future, such as preparing for the next - year long - term contract negotiations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash's main contract fluctuated significantly in July, with expectations of a weak adjustment in August due to macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics [1] Price Fluctuation - In July, the main soda ash contract experienced amplified price volatility influenced by external sentiment and market emotions [1] - Early in the month, optimistic expectations regarding anti-involution policies led to a rapid price increase, but by the end of July, weaker-than-expected macro policies cooled market sentiment, causing prices to decline [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The soda ash production load decreased month-on-month, but downstream purchasing intentions remained weak, resulting in soft terminal demand [1] - Both industry inventory and delivery inventory increased month-on-month, indicating significant absolute inventory pressure [1] - The upcoming supply side is expected to show limited contraction, while new capacity releases will gradually reveal supply pressure in the future [1] - Demand may also contract, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector, leading to further pressure on the market [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - External sentiment continues to impact prices, with expectations of a high probability of weak adjustments in the soda ash market in August [1] - The logic of the 09 contract transitioning to physical delivery is under pressure due to tight delivery inventory and difficulties in spot sales [1] - Currently, the price difference between SA09 and SA01 is weak, and further weakening is limited after the main contract shifts [1]