早上好，先来关注下地缘局势。 特朗普：尚未就动武作出最终决定 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月27日，美国总统特朗普就伊朗问题释放最新信号。 特朗普表示，他希望与伊朗达成协议，并透露美伊将于当日继续进行更多谈判。特朗普对伊朗在核问题谈判中的表现"并不满意"，称美方计划与伊朗继续 举行更多会谈，"看看会发生什么"。 在被问及是否会对伊朗动用军事力量时，他表示"并不想这样做，但有时候不得不这么做"，同时强调尚未就是否发动打击作出"最终决定"，并重申"伊朗 不能拥有核武器"。 多国发布安全提醒，以色列称正密切关注伊朗局势 随着局势持续紧张，多国纷纷发布安全提醒。 中国驻伊朗大使馆和驻以色列大使馆发文，郑重提醒中国公民密切关注安全形势变化。美国国务院27日更新针对以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙的旅行警告， 维持第三级"重新考虑前往"，并授权非紧急美国政府人员及其家属撤离以色列。美国驻以大使赫卡比就此表示，如要离开以色列，务必"今天离开"。 英国政府27日称，出于安全形势考虑，从伊朗暂时撤出使馆工作人员。加拿大政府26日称，鉴于地区局势持续紧张，加拿大公民应立即撤离伊朗。希腊、 法国、波兰、哈萨克斯坦、塞浦路斯等国27日纷纷发布 ...

广期所碳酸锂主力合约由跌转涨，报149680元/吨，该品种此前一度跌超4%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in various domestic commodity futures, particularly in precious metals, due to international price drops [4][6]. - As of February 2, the Shanghai silver futures contract hit the limit down, with platinum down 16% and palladium down over 15%, while Shanghai gold fell over 12% [4][6]. - Other non-precious metals such as Shanghai tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum also experienced substantial declines, with Shanghai tin down 11% and Shanghai nickel down 8.31% [5][6]. Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limits for silver deferred contracts due to significant price volatility [6]. - If a one-sided market occurs, the margin level for the Ag (T+D) contract will increase from 20% to 26%, and the price fluctuation limit will change from 19% to 25% starting from the next trading day [6][7]. - Members are advised to enhance risk awareness and prepare emergency risk management plans to ensure market stability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuation in lithium carbonate futures prices reflects a market returning to fundamental trading after digesting previous bullish news, with prices experiencing a decline due to increased market volatility and a drop in lithium ore prices [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 28, lithium carbonate futures closed at 166,280 yuan/ton, marking a 3.9% decrease [1]. - The price drop is attributed to the market's return to fundamentals after a period of high prices and increased volatility due to diverging market sentiments [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lithium carbonate remains high but with limited incremental growth, maintaining a weekly production of approximately 22,000 tons [4]. - Demand is characterized by a "not-so-dull" off-season, with energy storage batteries operating at full capacity and a surge in exports driven by tax rebate policies [4]. - Current weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate is around 800 tons, indicating a shift back to a destocking phase after a slight accumulation [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current low inventory levels across the industry, particularly among lithium salt manufacturers and downstream industries, may support prices despite recent declines [4]. - The market sentiment has cooled due to systemic risks and macroeconomic factors, leading to expectations of price fluctuations around high levels until new driving factors emerge [4][6]. - The ongoing strong demand may provide support for lithium carbonate prices, but caution is advised regarding potential downward adjustments as market dynamics evolve [5][6].

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Palm oil is expected to experience high - level fluctuations due to multiple factors [2][4]. - For soybean oil, the US 45Z subsidy is about to be implemented, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to rise [2][4]. - Overnight, US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal futures may follow the adjustment [2][9]. - The spot price of soybeans is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is in an adjustment and volatile state [2][9]. - Corn is expected to show a slightly upward trend in a volatile manner [2][12]. - Sugar is mainly in a low - level consolidation phase [2][16]. - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, waiting for new driving factors [2][20]. - Before the Spring Festival, the spot price of eggs is strong due to the peak season [2][26]. - The demand during the peak season for hogs is lower than expected, and supply contradictions are emerging [2][29]. - Peanuts are expected to move in a volatile manner [2][33]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,092 yuan/ton with a 2.04% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,162 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,226 yuan/ton with a 1.63% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,202 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% decrease [4]. - **News**: Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of January 24 was 99.1%, and the harvesting rate was 6.6%. Argentina is facing drought, which may affect soybean production [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2605's daily - session closing price was 2,769 yuan/ton with a 0.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,768 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. DCE soybeans 2605's daily - session closing price was 4,384 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,364 yuan/ton with a - 0.71% decrease [9]. - **News**: On January 26, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the upward adjustment of Brazil's soybean production forecast and concerns about China's future purchases. AgRural raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast by 600,000 tons to 181 million tons [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal is - 1, and that of soybeans is 0 [11]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,293 yuan/ton with a - 0.22% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,287 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease. The closing price of C2605 was 2,290 yuan/ton with a 0.09% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease [13]. - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price is 2300 - 2310 yuan/ton, and the container - shipped first - class grain port price is 2330 - 2350 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than last Friday [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 1 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price is 14.79 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price is 5,290 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price is 5,172 yuan/ton [16]. - **News**: As of January 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 190,000 tons [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,650 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 14,580 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% decrease. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,515 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 20,435 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% decrease [20]. - **News**: The cotton spot trading is generally light, and the basis is mostly stable. The cotton textile market is also in a weak state, with some downstream factories starting to take holidays [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 1 [24]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 3,069 yuan/500 kg with a 0.33% increase, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,069 yuan/500 kg with a 0.16% increase [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [27]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price is 13,180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 12,950 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton. The price of hog 2603 futures is 11,465 yuan/ton, the price of hog 2605 futures is 11,760 yuan/ton, and the price of hog 2607 futures is 12,425 yuan/ton [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hogs is - 2 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of PK603 was 8,042 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,900 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [33]. - **News**: In the spot market, the supply of peanuts in various regions is not large, and the prices are generally stable [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [35].

Group 1 - The main contracts for platinum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 9%, closing at 668 yuan per gram [1] - The main contracts for palladium on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 7%, closing at 493.85 yuan per gram [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows a mixed trend with most contracts declining, particularly lithium carbonate and shipping contracts, while polysilicon and vegetable oil have seen gains [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main futures contracts experienced a decline, with lithium carbonate and shipping contracts dropping over 8%, while polysilicon and vegetable oil rose by more than 2% [3][5]. - Specific declines include lithium carbonate at 146,200, down 8.99%, and shipping contracts at 1,121, down 8.52% [4][7]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Huatai Futures indicates that prices are at a two-year high, with strong demand in energy storage despite poor transmission in the downstream battery sector. Inventory has shifted from accumulation to depletion, suggesting a balanced supply-demand situation [5][8]. - Nanhua Futures notes that pre-Spring Festival inventory buildup is nearing completion, leading to weak spot trading. While long-term demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage is confirmed, short-term inventory pressure should be monitored, with Q1 price expectations set between 120,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton [8]. - Hengyin Futures forecasts a 1.2% month-on-month decrease in lithium carbonate production for January, but a 0.99% increase in energy storage battery production provides support. The market is entering an adjustment phase after previous price surges, with a critical price level to watch at 156,000 yuan per ton [8].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results with significant gains in certain metals, including tin (over 9%), nickel (over 5%), and silver (over 4%) on January 15, 2026 [3][7] - Other commodities such as stainless steel, fuel oil, and various petrochemicals also experienced increases of over 3% [3][7] - Conversely, palladium and platinum saw declines of over 4% and 3% respectively, while palm oil, caustic soda, and rapeseed oil dropped by more than 1% [3][7] Group 2 - New Lake Futures indicated that the tin market fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the rapid price increase is increasingly suppressing consumption [5][9] - There is a low acceptance of current prices among downstream and end-user enterprises, leading to issues with price transmission [5][9] - The speculative atmosphere in the market remains strong, with active positions being added in the futures market [5][9] - In this context, tin prices may maintain high levels in the short term, but there is a risk of a rapid decline if bullish capital exits the market [5][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - On January 7, equity index futures showed differentiated performance, CGB futures declined, and most commodities rose, with nickel, coke, coking coal, and stainless steel hitting the daily limit [2][9][12]. - The sharp rally in coking coal and coke was driven by both macro and industry - specific factors. The macro outlook warmed due to the PBOC's accommodative monetary policy stance, and the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke improved marginally [18][19][20]. - The significant increase in nickel prices was due to expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, low nickel valuation, and demand expectations from solid - state battery industrialization. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose with high inventories [28][29][31]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 0.5% while IF fell 0.4% [9][12]. - CGB futures: TL declined 0.44% and T dropped 0.08% [9][12]. - Commodity futures: Top three gainers were nickel (up 8.0% with 1.1% MoM increase in open interest), coke (up 8.0% with 4.6% MoM increase in open interest), and coking coal (up 8.0% with 2.3% MoM increase in open interest). Top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.6% with 12.7% MoM decrease in open interest), crude oil (down 2.6% with 4.3% MoM increase in open interest), and platinum (down 2.5% with 2.8% MoM decrease in open interest) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On January 7, coking coal rose 8.0% to 1,164 yuan per ton, and coke rose 8.0% to 1,773 yuan per ton. The rally was due to a warming macro outlook (PBOC's accommodative policy) and improved supply - demand structure (eased Mongolia coal imports and increasing pig iron output) [17][20][22]. 1.2.2 Nickel - On January 7, nickel rose 8.0% to 147,720 yuan per ton. The price increase on January 6 was driven by expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, non - ferrous sector sentiment, low valuation, and solid - state battery demand. Supply pressure lingers, demand is in the off - season, and inventories are high. Short - term strength is supported by policy and non - ferrous sentiment, and investors are advised to buy on dips and monitor Indonesian policy rollout [28][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Two ministries issued regulations stating that online trading platform operators shall not mandate or disguisedly mandate merchants to sell goods/services below cost. They also cannot impose unreasonable restrictions on merchants' independent operations [33][35]. - The PBOC increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month. China's gold reserves at the end of December were 74.15 million ounces (approx. 2,306.323 tons), up 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) MoM [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has experienced a significant price increase, driven by supply-side disruptions and strong downstream demand, leading to heightened market attention [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement - On December 24, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures surged past 120,000 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase exceeding 7%. The contract closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [1] - Since December, the price of the contract has risen approximately 29% from around 90,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price increase is attributed to expectations of supply constraints due to the planned cancellation of expired mining rights in Yichun, Jiangxi, and concerns over potential delays in the resumption of large mines [1] - Downstream demand is supported by pre-holiday stockpiling by battery material manufacturers and robust orders in the energy storage sector, contributing to a positive market sentiment and ongoing inventory depletion [1] Group 3: Regulatory Response - In response to the rapid price increase and heightened market sentiment, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced risk control measures effective December 26, including a daily opening limit of 400 contracts for near-month contracts and an adjustment of the minimum opening order quantity to 5 contracts [2] - While some institutions acknowledge the long-term supply-demand balance, they also caution against short-term price correction risks, noting that current price increases may already reflect future supply expectations [2]