1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal is in a rebound and oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East situation; the spot price of soybean is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price is in an adjustment and oscillation [1] - On March 5, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the crude oil futures market. However, due to the sufficient global soybean supply with the harvest of new soybeans in South America and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the upward space of soybean prices is still restricted [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4652 yuan/ton during the day session, down 14 yuan (-0.30%), and 4644 yuan at night, down 26 yuan (-0.56%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2843 yuan/ton during the day session, up 8 yuan (+0.28%), and 2858 yuan at night, up 21 yuan (+0.74%); CBOT soybean 05 closed at 1179 cents/bushel, up 12.75 cents (+1.09%); CBOT soybean meal 05 closed at 309 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars (-0.13%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal is 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery times; in East China, it is 3020 - 3260 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 3050 - 3260 yuan/ton. The net grain purchase price of soybeans in the Northeast region is around 4600 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal is 8.23 million tons per day, and the inventory is 71.72 million tons per week [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 5, CBOT soybean futures followed the upward trend of the crude oil futures market. The continuous Middle - East conflict has disrupted the supply, causing international crude oil prices to soar to the highest level since July 8, 2024 [1][3] - As of the week ending February 26, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 383,500 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average [3] - The good - quality rate of Argentine soybeans is 30%, only one percentage point higher than a week ago [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main contract futures prices during the day session on the report day [3]

Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump has not made a final decision regarding military action against Iran, expressing a desire for a diplomatic agreement while indicating dissatisfaction with Iran's performance in nuclear negotiations [2] - Multiple countries have issued security alerts due to escalating tensions, with the U.S. updating travel warnings and authorizing the evacuation of non-emergency personnel from Israel [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces are closely monitoring the situation in Iran and are prepared to protect the safety of their citizens [4] Military Deployment - The U.S. has deployed two aircraft carriers, the "Ford" and "Lincoln," in the Middle East, with the "Ford" positioned near Haifa, Israel [5] - Iran has warned of a "devastating" response to any U.S. aggression, indicating that reckless actions could lead to large-scale conflict [5] Market Reactions - Silver prices surged, with a 6.15% increase in spot prices and a 7.77% rise in New York futures [6] - Crude oil prices also saw significant increases, with both WTI and Brent crude futures rising over 3% [6] Agricultural Market Insights - Canola futures experienced a strong increase, with prices rising over 4% to 5891 yuan/ton, recovering much of the losses from earlier in the month [7] - The rise in canola prices is attributed to reduced supply forecasts and strong performance in soybean futures, with significant decreases in import volumes expected for 2026 [9] - Recent policy changes regarding tariffs on Canadian imports are expected to impact the domestic canola market, with potential increases in canola meal imports but mixed effects on canola and canola oil prices [10] - The global canola market is at a critical juncture, with geopolitical factors and policy adjustments influencing supply and demand dynamics [11] - Long-term projections suggest that if Canadian and Australian canola supplies arrive in sufficient quantities, domestic prices may face downward pressure [12]

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has shifted from a decline to an increase, currently priced at 149,680 yuan per ton, after previously experiencing a drop of over 4% [1] Group 1 - The lithium carbonate main contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a price of 149,680 yuan per ton [1] - Prior to the price increase, the contract had seen a decline exceeding 4% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in various domestic commodity futures, particularly in precious metals, due to international price drops [4][6]. - As of February 2, the Shanghai silver futures contract hit the limit down, with platinum down 16% and palladium down over 15%, while Shanghai gold fell over 12% [4][6]. - Other non-precious metals such as Shanghai tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum also experienced substantial declines, with Shanghai tin down 11% and Shanghai nickel down 8.31% [5][6]. Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limits for silver deferred contracts due to significant price volatility [6]. - If a one-sided market occurs, the margin level for the Ag (T+D) contract will increase from 20% to 26%, and the price fluctuation limit will change from 19% to 25% starting from the next trading day [6][7]. - Members are advised to enhance risk awareness and prepare emergency risk management plans to ensure market stability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuation in lithium carbonate futures prices reflects a market returning to fundamental trading after digesting previous bullish news, with prices experiencing a decline due to increased market volatility and a drop in lithium ore prices [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 28, lithium carbonate futures closed at 166,280 yuan/ton, marking a 3.9% decrease [1]. - The price drop is attributed to the market's return to fundamentals after a period of high prices and increased volatility due to diverging market sentiments [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lithium carbonate remains high but with limited incremental growth, maintaining a weekly production of approximately 22,000 tons [4]. - Demand is characterized by a "not-so-dull" off-season, with energy storage batteries operating at full capacity and a surge in exports driven by tax rebate policies [4]. - Current weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate is around 800 tons, indicating a shift back to a destocking phase after a slight accumulation [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current low inventory levels across the industry, particularly among lithium salt manufacturers and downstream industries, may support prices despite recent declines [4]. - The market sentiment has cooled due to systemic risks and macroeconomic factors, leading to expectations of price fluctuations around high levels until new driving factors emerge [4][6]. - The ongoing strong demand may provide support for lithium carbonate prices, but caution is advised regarding potential downward adjustments as market dynamics evolve [5][6].

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Palm oil is expected to experience high - level fluctuations due to multiple factors [2][4]. - For soybean oil, the US 45Z subsidy is about to be implemented, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to rise [2][4]. - Overnight, US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal futures may follow the adjustment [2][9]. - The spot price of soybeans is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is in an adjustment and volatile state [2][9]. - Corn is expected to show a slightly upward trend in a volatile manner [2][12]. - Sugar is mainly in a low - level consolidation phase [2][16]. - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, waiting for new driving factors [2][20]. - Before the Spring Festival, the spot price of eggs is strong due to the peak season [2][26]. - The demand during the peak season for hogs is lower than expected, and supply contradictions are emerging [2][29]. - Peanuts are expected to move in a volatile manner [2][33]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,092 yuan/ton with a 2.04% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,162 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,226 yuan/ton with a 1.63% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,202 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% decrease [4]. - **News**: Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of January 24 was 99.1%, and the harvesting rate was 6.6%. Argentina is facing drought, which may affect soybean production [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2605's daily - session closing price was 2,769 yuan/ton with a 0.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,768 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. DCE soybeans 2605's daily - session closing price was 4,384 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,364 yuan/ton with a - 0.71% decrease [9]. - **News**: On January 26, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the upward adjustment of Brazil's soybean production forecast and concerns about China's future purchases. AgRural raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast by 600,000 tons to 181 million tons [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal is - 1, and that of soybeans is 0 [11]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,293 yuan/ton with a - 0.22% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,287 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease. The closing price of C2605 was 2,290 yuan/ton with a 0.09% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% decrease [13]. - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price is 2300 - 2310 yuan/ton, and the container - shipped first - class grain port price is 2330 - 2350 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than last Friday [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 1 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price is 14.79 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price is 5,290 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price is 5,172 yuan/ton [16]. - **News**: As of January 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 190,000 tons [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,650 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 14,580 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% decrease. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,515 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 20,435 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% decrease [20]. - **News**: The cotton spot trading is generally light, and the basis is mostly stable. The cotton textile market is also in a weak state, with some downstream factories starting to take holidays [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 1 [24]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 3,069 yuan/500 kg with a 0.33% increase, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,069 yuan/500 kg with a 0.16% increase [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [27]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price is 13,180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 12,950 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton. The price of hog 2603 futures is 11,465 yuan/ton, the price of hog 2605 futures is 11,760 yuan/ton, and the price of hog 2607 futures is 12,425 yuan/ton [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hogs is - 2 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of PK603 was 8,042 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,900 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [33]. - **News**: In the spot market, the supply of peanuts in various regions is not large, and the prices are generally stable [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [35].

Group 1 - The main contracts for platinum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 9%, closing at 668 yuan per gram [1] - The main contracts for palladium on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 7%, closing at 493.85 yuan per gram [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows a mixed trend with most contracts declining, particularly lithium carbonate and shipping contracts, while polysilicon and vegetable oil have seen gains [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main futures contracts experienced a decline, with lithium carbonate and shipping contracts dropping over 8%, while polysilicon and vegetable oil rose by more than 2% [3][5]. - Specific declines include lithium carbonate at 146,200, down 8.99%, and shipping contracts at 1,121, down 8.52% [4][7]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Huatai Futures indicates that prices are at a two-year high, with strong demand in energy storage despite poor transmission in the downstream battery sector. Inventory has shifted from accumulation to depletion, suggesting a balanced supply-demand situation [5][8]. - Nanhua Futures notes that pre-Spring Festival inventory buildup is nearing completion, leading to weak spot trading. While long-term demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage is confirmed, short-term inventory pressure should be monitored, with Q1 price expectations set between 120,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton [8]. - Hengyin Futures forecasts a 1.2% month-on-month decrease in lithium carbonate production for January, but a 0.99% increase in energy storage battery production provides support. The market is entering an adjustment phase after previous price surges, with a critical price level to watch at 156,000 yuan per ton [8].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results with significant gains in certain metals, including tin (over 9%), nickel (over 5%), and silver (over 4%) on January 15, 2026 [3][7] - Other commodities such as stainless steel, fuel oil, and various petrochemicals also experienced increases of over 3% [3][7] - Conversely, palladium and platinum saw declines of over 4% and 3% respectively, while palm oil, caustic soda, and rapeseed oil dropped by more than 1% [3][7] Group 2 - New Lake Futures indicated that the tin market fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the rapid price increase is increasingly suppressing consumption [5][9] - There is a low acceptance of current prices among downstream and end-user enterprises, leading to issues with price transmission [5][9] - The speculative atmosphere in the market remains strong, with active positions being added in the futures market [5][9] - In this context, tin prices may maintain high levels in the short term, but there is a risk of a rapid decline if bullish capital exits the market [5][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - On January 7, equity index futures showed differentiated performance, CGB futures declined, and most commodities rose, with nickel, coke, coking coal, and stainless steel hitting the daily limit [2][9][12]. - The sharp rally in coking coal and coke was driven by both macro and industry - specific factors. The macro outlook warmed due to the PBOC's accommodative monetary policy stance, and the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke improved marginally [18][19][20]. - The significant increase in nickel prices was due to expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, low nickel valuation, and demand expectations from solid - state battery industrialization. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose with high inventories [28][29][31]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 0.5% while IF fell 0.4% [9][12]. - CGB futures: TL declined 0.44% and T dropped 0.08% [9][12]. - Commodity futures: Top three gainers were nickel (up 8.0% with 1.1% MoM increase in open interest), coke (up 8.0% with 4.6% MoM increase in open interest), and coking coal (up 8.0% with 2.3% MoM increase in open interest). Top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.6% with 12.7% MoM decrease in open interest), crude oil (down 2.6% with 4.3% MoM increase in open interest), and platinum (down 2.5% with 2.8% MoM decrease in open interest) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On January 7, coking coal rose 8.0% to 1,164 yuan per ton, and coke rose 8.0% to 1,773 yuan per ton. The rally was due to a warming macro outlook (PBOC's accommodative policy) and improved supply - demand structure (eased Mongolia coal imports and increasing pig iron output) [17][20][22]. 1.2.2 Nickel - On January 7, nickel rose 8.0% to 147,720 yuan per ton. The price increase on January 6 was driven by expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, non - ferrous sector sentiment, low valuation, and solid - state battery demand. Supply pressure lingers, demand is in the off - season, and inventories are high. Short - term strength is supported by policy and non - ferrous sentiment, and investors are advised to buy on dips and monitor Indonesian policy rollout [28][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Two ministries issued regulations stating that online trading platform operators shall not mandate or disguisedly mandate merchants to sell goods/services below cost. They also cannot impose unreasonable restrictions on merchants' independent operations [33][35]. - The PBOC increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month. China's gold reserves at the end of December were 74.15 million ounces (approx. 2,306.323 tons), up 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) MoM [34][35].