9月25日，沥青期货偏强震荡，截至发稿主力合约小幅上涨1.27%，报3439.00元/吨。 机构观点 国信期货：供给方面，9月24日中国沥青日度开工负荷率为45.03%，环比上周三下降3.80%；需求方 面，旺季特征并不明显，多地道路施工项目进度有所延缓，终端沥青消耗节奏偏慢，整体需求表现仍显 乏力。下游用户及贸易商多持谨慎观望态度，按需采购为主。近期国际原油价格震荡运行，沥青期货价 格中枢跟随成本端波动。操作上建议以震荡思路操作为主。 建信期货：海石化转产渣油预期及部分炼厂降负计划可能削减供应，但江苏新海石化与山东胜星石化沥 青转产计划落地，叠加已转产的金诚石化、东明石化持续稳定运行，预计沥青装置开工负荷率将继续回 升。需求端北方和中部市场天气配合，叠加项目赶工驱动，需求存在一定韧性，而南方地区需求则受到 台风天气影响。需求总体保持平稳。沥青供需两弱，震荡偏弱运行，同样偏空思路为主。 截至9月24日当周，中国92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为42.0%，环比增加5.7%，沥青周产量为70.1万吨，环 比增加15.5%。其中，国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为40.1%，环比增加5.7%。 截至9月23日当周，国内沥 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Although concentrate supply is tight and smelting profits are under pressure, smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, and smelting profits have turned positive. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output has high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 20,685 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 0.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with no daily change [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 120,730 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 990 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,340 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 173.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,900 tons with an increase of 456 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 17,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 42.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 221,675 tons with an increase of 1,375 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 269,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,000 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,270 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 98.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,580 tons with an increase of 75 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - New - season supply pressure leads to a decline in futures prices, and many deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have lowered the purchase price of new grain; the overall demand for corn is stable, and the import pressure is limited; the supply - demand structure is turning loose, and the main task in the fourth quarter is to digest the pressure of new grain [1] - There are both positive and negative factors in the corn market. Positive factors include a slight rebound in spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai, low - volume imports in August, and successful corn procurement by the Chengdu branch of Sinograin. Negative factors are the new - season harvest causing supply pressure and weakened market sentiment due to price cuts by deep - processing enterprises [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - From September 19 to September 22, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, corn 11 dropped from 2168 to 2158 (-0.46%), and corn starch 11 dropped from 2463 to 2447 (-0.65%). The wheat average price rose slightly by 0.04% [2] Positive Factors - Corn spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai have slightly rebounded [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, with less substitution pressure [3] - On the 22nd, the Chengdu branch of Sinograin conducted a corn bidding procurement of 4100 tons, all of which were successfully transacted, and there were no sales sessions [3] Negative Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus exerts pressure on prices [3] - Many deep - processing enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new grain, further weakening market sentiment [3] Spot Prices and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin) remained unchanged on the day, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract increased by 21. Corn starch spot prices in different regions (such as Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) also remained unchanged, and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract increased by 42 [11] US Corn Prices and Import Profits - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract dropped by 0.59% to 421.75. The import profit of US Gulf is 306.56 yuan/ton, and that of US West is 448.76 yuan/ton [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On September 17, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed performances with energy and chemicals performing stronger [2][10][13] - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is a risk that the subsequent demand for poly - silicon will continue to weaken [17][24][33] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 17, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities showed mixed performances, with energy and chemicals performing stronger. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were LSFO, crude oil, and fuel oil, and the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), rapeseed meal, and poly - silicon. Among financial futures, IC and IM rose 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, and TL climbed 0.3% [10][11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On September 17, it increased by 1.2% to 499.3 yuan/barrel. API data showed U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories declined last week, while diesel inventories continued to build up. The Russia - Ukraine conflict still supports oil prices. However, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil inventories will face dual pressure later [17][18] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Copper**: On September 17, it decreased by 0.7% to 80560 yuan/ton. Supply constraints persist, and recent supply disruptions have increased. With the Fed's expected rate cut in September, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Macroeconomically, loose liquidity is favorable for copper prices. Supply - side issues include disruptions in copper mine supply and increased costs of scrap copper recycling. Demand - side shows that the peak season for end - user demand has arrived, but copper inventory destocking is not obvious [24][25][26][27] - **Poly - Silicon**: On September 17, it decreased by 2.1% to 53490 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy has boosted prices recently, but if policy expectations fade, prices may reverse. Supply - side: Southwest China's operating capacity has increased with the wet season. Demand - side: 1 - 5 months' high growth in photovoltaic installations has exhausted the second - half demand, and subsequent demand may continue to weaken [31][32][33] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Trump extended the TikTok ban grace - period for the fourth time, pushing the deadline to December 16. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [36] 2.2 Industry News - Hong Kong will collaborate with GBA exchanges to develop new businesses such as commodity trading and carbon trading. It will also discuss launching offshore treasury bond futures, strengthen top - level design for commodities policies, and promote the development of its commodity trading ecosystem [37][38]

20250918申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.84%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产 量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 陡增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续 | | | | 疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 间波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低0.76%。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅 | | | 锌 | 正增长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差 | 可能短期宽 | | | 异可能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号： ...

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak steel demand and expectations of a contraction in coal supply. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Supported by the high - level production of steel mills from September to October and the supply - side expectations of coal, raw material prices are resilient, which supports steel prices. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to repair upwards, and short - term long positions can be attempted. Pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. The upper pressure levels for rebar are around 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils around 3500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary of Related Contents Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in the South China region increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 36 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices changed, with steel billet prices increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The cost of steel production fluctuated, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profit of rebar in the South China region increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6 tons, and the production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2 tons. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6 tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0%, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 1.9%. However, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.0%, while that for hot - rolled coils increased by 6.8% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, after the end of major events, the pig iron output rebounded significantly last week, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. In terms of inventory, the port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume increased month - on - month, and the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The iron ore market is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to take a long position on the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices and engage in arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary of Related Contents Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, while the 01 contract basis of various varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.1% [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5%, and the global shipping volume increased by 29.6%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%, and the port clearance volume increased by 4.2%. The monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3%, the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the available days of inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [4]. 3. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. For coke, the second - round price cut by steel mills on the spot market has been implemented, but the third - round price cut is difficult. The supply side has resumed production rapidly, and the demand side is still supported by the rebound of iron - making water. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the downstream purchase intention has recovered. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to take a long position on the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1650 - 1800), take a long position on the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1070 - 1300), and engage in arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke, while paying attention to risks due to large market fluctuations [6]. Summary of Related Contents Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract of coke increasing by 2.8% and the 01 contract of coking coal increasing by 4.5%. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%. The iron - making water output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal was supported [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2%, and the coking coal inventory of different sectors changed, with some sectors de - stocking and some sectors slightly increasing inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side support during the peak season. The resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine under CATL will be a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to the market pricing in advance the potential downward pressure on prices due to future supply increases, while the demand side provides solid support. The resumption of production at the lithium mine has significant uncertainties, and before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 6,8000 - 76,000 yuan/ton until National Day [3][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the time - limit pressure on lithium mines in Jiangxi for report submission and the policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage. Negative factors include the risk of insufficient restocking during the peak season and the expected resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility Forecast**: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 39.0%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 65.9% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 73,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan (0.69%) and a weekly increase of 280 yuan (0.38%); the trading volume is 500,267 lots, with a daily increase of 17,477 lots (3.62%) and a weekly decrease of 91,408 lots (-15.45%); the open interest is 300,437 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,009 lots (-2.91%) and a weekly decrease of 50,903 lots (-14.49%) [9][10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, show different price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (2.25%) and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (-2.68%) [24]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.57%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.42%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 400 yuan (0.55%) and a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan (-2.35%) [27]. - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,470 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan (0.28%); the average price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary materials is 114,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan (0%) [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., show different price differences. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 is - 237.5 yuan/ton [35]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 38,824 lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [38]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profits**: The report mentions the production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene and lithium mica) and the import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical details are not fully presented [42]. Lithium - Ion Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: - For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 60% of corresponding futures contracts at 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of put options (P - 68,000) [2]. - For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 20% of the futures main contract according to the procurement progress and use 20% of put options + call options [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales prices can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use 20% of put options + call options according to the production plan [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 20% of the futures main contract at 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton (LC2511) and sell 40% of call options (C - 77,000) [2].

长江期货棉纺产业周报 2025-9-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 震荡运行 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 Ø 短中期展望：今年新花上市，基于目前价格属于低位值区域，今年大概率收购平稳，不会出现过热，也不会出现过于 悲观，可能在 9 月 15 日-10 月 15 日一个月内有反弹可能，10 月中旬过后，由于新棉花供应量增加，套保的压力， 先扬后抑走势。CF2601 期货价格波动区域为13300-14500。同比上周变化的地方：原本觉得反弹 9 月 30 日提前结束， 不会撑到十一以后，基于内地紧张问题，可能价格坚挺能维持到十一后。。 Ø 长期展望：由于国内明年供需可能依然紧张，全球供需属于平衡区，美联储转为降息周期，中美低利率宽松货币共振， 国内可能有利好政策不断跟进，预计明年宏观走好，长线看震荡上行趋势。不过我们要随时关注国际局势，因意外因 素，打乱节奏，产生的影响。同比上周变化的地方：国内供需上，新疆丰产会迷失大家眼睛，由于新疆的扩产能，明 年消费量会增加，实际上明年国内供需可能依然紧张。 02 ...

| 序号 | 合约各称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 泰价 | 法相关1 | 不用 | 英语 | 成交量 | 涞联 | 持合量 | 日喀它 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 碳酸铝2511 M | 80980 | 1 | - | 80980 | -8.00% | | -- 14416 | 838879 -7040 | | 395102 | -18995 | | 2 | 華館Sect in | 130a | 12 | 1308 | 1310 | -5.01% | | 149 2738 | 2970244 | -69 | ES6696T | -62895 | | 3 | 玻璃2601 m | 1162 | 13 | 1161 | 1162 | -4.36% | | 105 2977 | 2644752 | -23 | 1198103 | 1641 | | 4 | 工业硅2511 M | 8390 | 43 | 8390 | 8395 | -2.89% | 3 | ટેર ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output and mixed domestic downstream demand factors such as stable growth in the power industry, positive growth in automobile production and sales, slowing growth in home appliance output, and weak real - estate. Attention should be paid to factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The concentrate processing fees have been rising, and the domestic supply of concentrates has improved significantly this year with potential recovery in smelting supply. Domestic downstream demand shows positive growth in automobile production and sales and stable growth in infrastructure, but slowing growth in home appliance output and weak real - estate. Attention should be paid to factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Weekend night - session copper prices rose slightly. The current low concentrate processing fees are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real - estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 170 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,760 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 93.75 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 155,850 tons, and the daily change was - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed lower. The concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real - estate is weak. This year, the concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,595 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,797 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 5.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 77,450 tons, and the daily change was - 1,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,603 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 1.79 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 479,675 tons, and the daily change was 1,050 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,870 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,195 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 207.88 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 211,140 tons, and the daily change was 42 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,981 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.24 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 261,675 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 269,660 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 3,480 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,610 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 63.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,830 tons, and the daily change was 50 tons [2].