航运日报 | 2025-10-10 巴以和谈消息扰动远月，马士基发布11月份涨价函 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹43周报价1080/1800；HPL -SPOT 10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半 月价格1535/2535。HPL发布最新涨价函，10月15日之后运价涨至1200/2000；马士基发布11月份涨价函，11月3日 之后价格涨至1625/2500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月上半月价格855/1415，10月下半月价格涨至1245/2065；ONE 10月下半月价格 1305/2035；HMM上海-鹿特丹10月下半月价格1268/2106; YML 10/15-10/31报价1100/1900。MSC发布10/15-10/31 日涨价函 1320/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹10月上半月船期报价1010/1620，10月下半月价格1310/2220，11月上半月船期 报价1691/2984；EMC 10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1610，10月下半月船期报价1355/ ...

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. There is uncertainty about the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October [4]. - The December contract is still far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases in November. There are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. The trading rhythm involves first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this process until delivery [6]. - The strategy suggests going short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expecting the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations and price - increase notices. For example, Maersk's WEEK42 quotation for Shanghai - Rotterdam has risen to 1800 US dollars/FEU, HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of October is 600 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the first half, and MSC has issued a price - increase notice for the second half of October [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If both sides accept, the two - year conflict will end immediately, and Israel will withdraw troops in stages [2]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European basic ports from China is 263,900 TEU, with 17 blank sailings. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 304,000 TEU, with 3 blank sailings and 3 TBNs [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **October Contract**: The central value of the freight rate in the first half of October has continued to decline to around 1400 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be around 1000 points, and the SCFIS on October 20th is estimated to be similar. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week increases by 500 US dollars/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately 1400/1500/1900 US dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price - support fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4][5]. - **December Contract**: With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping volume remains high, and shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, there are risks such as weak US demand. The trading rhythm first involves the price - increase expectation and then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice [6]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 69,419 lots, and the daily trading volume is 33,930 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1667.00, EC2604 at 1253.00, etc. [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the SCFI for Shanghai - Europe is 971 US dollars/TEU, for Shanghai - US West is 1460 US dollars/FEU, and for Shanghai - US East is 22385 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1120.49 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 921.25 points [7]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 28, 2025, 201 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU. Among them, 63 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 948,300 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expect the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8].

航运日报 | 2025-09-19 10月上半月运价中枢继续下移，HPL尝试提涨下半月价格 市场分析 线上报价方面。 10月合约:淡季合约空配为主，10月上半月运价中枢继续下移，HPL尝试提涨下半月价格。正常来讲，4月份以及 10月份是一年中运价最低的两个月份，10月合约交割结算价格为10/13、10/20以及10/27日SCFIS的算数平均值。 双 子星联盟，马士基WEEK40周以及WEEK41周价格开价1400美元/FEU，HPL-SPOT 9月份以及10月上半月运价1500+ 美元/FEU；OA联盟中 OOCL 9月下半月以及10月第一周船期价格跌至1500-1550美元/FEU；MSC 9月份以及10月 上半月运价跌至1590美元/FEU；PA联盟 YML 9月下半月以及10月上半月价格均下修至1300美元/FEU。目前10月 上半月运价中枢继续下移，已经降至1400美元/FEU左右（折合SCFIS 1000点左右）。总体来看，10月合约在驱动 向下的前提下，空配相对安全，但核心问题在于向下空间，目前HPL（1500+美元/FEU）、YML（1300美元/FEU） 以及MSC 1590美元/FEU 的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The October contract is mainly short - allocated during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downward. The HPL has announced the price for the second half of October. The price center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1500/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 points on SCFIS). The SCFIS on October 13 is expected to be between 1050 - 1100 points. If other shipping companies follow HPL's lead and keep the prices unchanged, the final delivery settlement price of the October contract will likely be below 1100 points [4]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists in the December contract. There is an opportunity to bet on the price increase expectation in November. However, the current risks include the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the weak demand on the US route. If ships on the US route are transferred to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices [5]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract in an arbitrage strategy [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of September 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 86,848.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,208.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1578.80, 1285.00, 1468.70, 1616.70, 1109.70, and 1672.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On September 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $2370/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $3307/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In October 2025, the monthly average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route was 272,600 TEU, and in November, it was 283,000 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 4 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HMM has announced the PA alliance's winter suspension plan for the Asia - Europe route [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 886,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) had been delivered [6]. 4. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical instability as Israel has launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, which may impact the shipping supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the US route is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand from September to December 2025 will be about 20% lower than the same period in 2024. The transfer of US - bound ships to the European route in the fourth quarter may affect European route prices [5].

航运日报 | 2025-09-16 关注下周马士基10月第一周开价情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹38周价格1055/1770，39周报价950/1590；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格 1035/1535，10月上半月价格1035/1535。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月下半月船期报价950/1590，10月上半月价格950/1590；ONE 9月下半月船期报价 1354/1643，10月上半月船期报价1365/1665；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1015/1600; YML 9月下半月至 10月15日报价950/1500。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1060/1720；EMC 9月份下半月船期价格介于1610-1710； OOCL 9月船期价格介于1600-1700美元/FEU。 地缘端： 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡13日在社交媒体上发文称，"清除"身处卡塔尔的巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马 斯）领导层，将为实现加沙地带停火扫除"主要障碍"。对此，《以色列时报》13日解读说，内 ...

航运日报 | 2025-09-10 MSC、YML以及HPL10月上半月价格公布，10合约估值顶 部继续下修 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹38周价格1050/1760；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格935/1535，10月上半月 价格935/1535。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月下半月船期报价1040/1740，10月上半月价格1040/1740；ONE9月下半月船期报 价1544/1943；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价介于1700-1900美元/FEU; YML9月下半月至10月15日报价 1050/1700。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1210/2020；EMC 9月份下半月船期价格介于1910-2010； OOCL 9月船期价格介于1650-1700美元/FEU。 地缘端： 一名以色列官员表示，以色列对哈马斯在卡塔尔首都多哈的高级政治领导人发动了袭击，在以色列加大 对加沙地带的攻势之际，以色列对该组织的打击进一步升级。以色列官 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to decline. In a normal year, the freight rate in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the short - allocation of the 10 - month contract is relatively safe, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4]. - The off - season and peak - season pattern of the 12 - month contract still exists, and the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. In a normal year, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long - allocation can be gradually carried out later to trade the expected freight rate increase by shipping companies in November and December [5]. - The main contract fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, the price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 37 is $1175/1970, and in week 38 is $1035/1730. HPL's SPOT price for the first half of September, the second half of September, and the first half of October is $1085/1735 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military chief of staff said that the Israeli army had entered new areas in Gaza City and would increase its operations and strike intensity [2]. - **Empty Voyages**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced empty voyages during the Chinese Golden Week. The initial capacity involved in the four voyages of MSC is approximately 59,000 TEU, and the AE1 route of the Gemini Alliance in week 41 is also empty. The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September is 290,700 TEU, and in October is 268,000 TEU [3]. - **Overtime Ships**: HPL has announced information on two overtime ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [3]. 2. Futures Prices As of September 3, 2025, the total contract positions of the container shipping index for European routes are 82,665.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 40,534.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1534.00, EC2604 is 1255.10, EC2606 is 1441.10, EC2508 is 1609.50, EC2510 is 1323.00, and EC2512 is 1701.20 [6]. 3. Spot Prices On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1923.00/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2866.00/FEU. On September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1013.90 points [6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 873,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate of the PA alliance has declined, and Maersk has lowered its PSS. The freight rates of OA and PA alliances are following the downward trend. The 8 - month contract freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [1][3][4][5]. - In terms of strategies, the main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies in various alliances have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price has increased, while HPL's price remains stable. Some companies in the MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have specific price quotes for different time periods. Maersk has lowered its PSS for the Far East - Nordic region to 50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: China emphasizes the importance of maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [2]. II. Shipping Capacity - **Weekly and Monthly Shipping Capacity**: From August to October, the weekly and monthly average shipping capacities of China - European base ports show certain fluctuations. There are also empty sailings, TBNs, and additional ships in different months. For example, in August, there are 4 empty sailings in the OA alliance, and Maersk and the OA alliance have added several additional ships [3]. III. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, which brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The shipping company's prices have entered a downward cycle [3]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normal years see the freight rate in October 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price follow - up of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops, and the additional ships announced by HPL in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - **December Contract**: The regular seasonal pattern of high freight rates in the fourth quarter still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [5]. IV. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts of the container shipping index for European routes are provided, including EC2602, EC2604, etc. [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) are given on different dates [6]. V. Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. VI. Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a significant drop in oil prices, etc. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain problems, etc. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The shipping company's prices are in a downward cycle, and the freight rates of August contracts have reached their peak and are continuously being revised downwards, which brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. For the October contracts, short - positions are the main strategy, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. For the December contracts, the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The recommended strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [4][5][6][8]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's WEEK34 quote is 1595/2670, and HPL's quotes vary by shipping period [1]. Geopolitical Situation - Hamas officials stated that the organization will regard any armed forces aiming to manage Gaza as "occupation" forces associated with Israel based on Netanyahu's remarks [2]. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September it is 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional ships, and the OA Alliance added three. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and there are currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [3]. Contract Analysis - **August Contracts**: The freight rate peak has passed, and the continuous downward revision of freight rates has brought uncertainty to the delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th. The prices of shipping companies have entered a downward cycle [4]. - **October Contracts**: It is a seasonal contract with short - positions as the main strategy. Attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. Normally, prices in October are 20% - 30% lower than those in August [5]. - **December Contracts**: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. The risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Usually, the prices from the Far East to Europe in December are more than 10% higher than those in October [6]. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 7, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures is 77,291 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 32,213 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are also given [7]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8]. Risk Factors - **Downside Risks**: Unexpected economic slowdown in Europe and the United States, significant decline in crude oil prices, unexpected delivery of ships, less - than - expected ship idling, and better - than - expected resolution of the Red Sea crisis. - **Upside Risks**: Economic recovery in Europe and the United States, supply chain disruptions, significant reduction in shipping capacity by liner companies, and continued fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to detours [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The shipping company's prices are adjusted frequently. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's WEEK34 prices will be revised again. The freight rate has entered a downward cycle, and the prices of different alliances are following the decline. There are different characteristics and risks for different contract months, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the monthly and weekly average capacities of China - European base ports in August and September vary, with additional overtime ships added by Maersk and OA Alliance [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's WEEK32 - 34 quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam decreased from 1846/3102 to 1590/2660, and different shipping companies' quotes for different time periods also have differences [1]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, discussing the Middle East situation, and Russia reiterated its stance on resolving regional issues through peaceful means [2]. 3. Shipping Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity of China - European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September is 297,100 TEU. There are 4 empty sailings in August (all from the OA Alliance) and 2 TBNs in September. Maersk added 2 overtime ships in August, and the OA Alliance added 3 overtime ships [3]. 4. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The top of the freight rate has appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. In normal years, October prices are 20% - 30% lower than August prices. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price during the downward cycle [5]. - **December Contract**: The off - peak and peak season rules still exist, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is usually high, and shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level [6]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 6, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 78,020 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 63,874 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. On August 1, the SCFI prices for different routes are also given [7]. 6. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8].