1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate of the PA alliance has declined, and Maersk has lowered its PSS. The freight rates of OA and PA alliances are following the downward trend. The 8 - month contract freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [1][3][4][5]. - In terms of strategies, the main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies in various alliances have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price has increased, while HPL's price remains stable. Some companies in the MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have specific price quotes for different time periods. Maersk has lowered its PSS for the Far East - Nordic region to 50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: China emphasizes the importance of maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [2]. II. Shipping Capacity - **Weekly and Monthly Shipping Capacity**: From August to October, the weekly and monthly average shipping capacities of China - European base ports show certain fluctuations. There are also empty sailings, TBNs, and additional ships in different months. For example, in August, there are 4 empty sailings in the OA alliance, and Maersk and the OA alliance have added several additional ships [3]. III. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, which brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The shipping company's prices have entered a downward cycle [3]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normal years see the freight rate in October 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price follow - up of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops, and the additional ships announced by HPL in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - **December Contract**: The regular seasonal pattern of high freight rates in the fourth quarter still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [5]. IV. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts of the container shipping index for European routes are provided, including EC2602, EC2604, etc. [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) are given on different dates [6]. V. Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. VI. Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a significant drop in oil prices, etc. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain problems, etc. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The shipping company's prices are in a downward cycle, and the freight rates of August contracts have reached their peak and are continuously being revised downwards, which brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. For the October contracts, short - positions are the main strategy, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. For the December contracts, the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The recommended strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [4][5][6][8]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's WEEK34 quote is 1595/2670, and HPL's quotes vary by shipping period [1]. Geopolitical Situation - Hamas officials stated that the organization will regard any armed forces aiming to manage Gaza as "occupation" forces associated with Israel based on Netanyahu's remarks [2]. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September it is 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional ships, and the OA Alliance added three. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and there are currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [3]. Contract Analysis - **August Contracts**: The freight rate peak has passed, and the continuous downward revision of freight rates has brought uncertainty to the delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th. The prices of shipping companies have entered a downward cycle [4]. - **October Contracts**: It is a seasonal contract with short - positions as the main strategy. Attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. Normally, prices in October are 20% - 30% lower than those in August [5]. - **December Contracts**: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. The risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Usually, the prices from the Far East to Europe in December are more than 10% higher than those in October [6]. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 7, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures is 77,291 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 32,213 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are also given [7]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8]. Risk Factors - **Downside Risks**: Unexpected economic slowdown in Europe and the United States, significant decline in crude oil prices, unexpected delivery of ships, less - than - expected ship idling, and better - than - expected resolution of the Red Sea crisis. - **Upside Risks**: Economic recovery in Europe and the United States, supply chain disruptions, significant reduction in shipping capacity by liner companies, and continued fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to detours [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The shipping company's prices are adjusted frequently. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's WEEK34 prices will be revised again. The freight rate has entered a downward cycle, and the prices of different alliances are following the decline. There are different characteristics and risks for different contract months, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the monthly and weekly average capacities of China - European base ports in August and September vary, with additional overtime ships added by Maersk and OA Alliance [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's WEEK32 - 34 quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam decreased from 1846/3102 to 1590/2660, and different shipping companies' quotes for different time periods also have differences [1]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, discussing the Middle East situation, and Russia reiterated its stance on resolving regional issues through peaceful means [2]. 3. Shipping Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity of China - European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September is 297,100 TEU. There are 4 empty sailings in August (all from the OA Alliance) and 2 TBNs in September. Maersk added 2 overtime ships in August, and the OA Alliance added 3 overtime ships [3]. 4. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The top of the freight rate has appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. In normal years, October prices are 20% - 30% lower than August prices. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price during the downward cycle [5]. - **December Contract**: The off - peak and peak season rules still exist, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is usually high, and shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level [6]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 6, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 78,020 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 63,874 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. On August 1, the SCFI prices for different routes are also given [7]. 6. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The top of the freight rate has likely appeared, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes [1][3] - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations and a game around delivery, with the freight rate top probably reached [3] - The October contract should be mainly short - allocated, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with large expected fluctuations [4] - The December contract follows the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation [4] - The strategy includes a fluctuating main contract for the unilateral approach, and for the arbitrage, go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes from different shipping companies show some price adjustments. For example, Maersk's prices decreased from Week 31 to Week 32, and some companies' August upper - half - month quotes changed [1] - Geopolitical situation in the Gaza region may impact shipping, with ongoing military actions and discussions about a possible cease - fire [1] 2. Shipping Capacity - China - Europe base port's August monthly average weekly shipping capacity is 303,200 TEU, and September's is 289,800 TEU. There are changes in weekly capacity and additional vessels in Maersk [2] - In August, there were 4 empty sailings from the OA alliance and 5 TBNs; in September, there are 3 TBNs [2] 3. Contract Analysis - August contract: The freight rate is in high - level fluctuations. The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25. The top of the freight rate has likely appeared, and the final settlement price may be around 2200 points [3] - October contract: It is a seasonal contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the October price is 20% - 30% lower than August's [4] - December contract: The freight rate is usually higher in December due to Western holidays and shipping companies' strategies. The risk is the resumption of the Suez Canal [4] 4. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 28, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 77,192 lots, and the daily trading volume is 70,845 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices [5] - SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are provided, such as the Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes [5] 5. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates [6] - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [6] 6. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU have been delivered [5] - Details of ships in different capacity ranges (12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU) delivered are provided [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot price of PA Alliance freight rates has likely emerged, with the rate revised down to $3,100 per FEU [1][4] - The August contract experiences high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely appeared. The delivery settlement price of the August contract may be around 2,200 points [4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate [5] - The December contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [7] - The year 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries [8] - The strategy includes a sideways movement for the main contract, a long - 12 and short - 10 arbitrage strategy, and shorting the October contract on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 79,692.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 81,678.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1,562.30, 1,382.00, 1,506.90, 2,244.90, 1,583.90, and 1,779.90 respectively [7] II. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show different price levels and trends. For example, Maersk's Week 31 price is 1907/3214, and Week 32 is 1815/3050 [1] - On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2,079.00 per TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2,142.00 per FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $3,612.00 per FEU. On July 21, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,400.50 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,301.81 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From July to September 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route shows different levels. August has 3 blank sailings from the OA Alliance, and there are 2 TBNs in August and 4 in September. Maersk will add two additional ships in Week 32 and Week 34 [3] - As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 47 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 705,300 TEU and 7 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU have been delivered [8] IV. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical influence. The US Middle East envoy stated that the US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas due to Hamas' lack of sincerity [2] - Information on ship congestion ratios, speeds of different - sized ships, and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama is presented in the figures, although specific data in the text analysis is not elaborated [57][67][75] V. Demand and European Economy - Figures show data related to port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, and China's export volume to the EU and total export volume, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [76][77][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot freight rate has likely appeared, with the offline price of ONE adjusted down to $3108/FEU [1][4]. - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely emerged. The 08 contract's delivery settlement price may fall around 2200 points [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with expected high volatility [5]. - The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries [8]. - For trading strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 80,317 lots, and the daily trading volume was 74,208 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1477.30, 1324.00, 1468.80, 2239.70, 1537.00, and 1701.80 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 31 was 1907/3214, and in week 32 it was 1780/2980. In the second half of July, the offline price of the PA alliance was between $3100 - 3300/FEU, and that of the OA alliance was between $3200 - 3500/FEU [2][4]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to July 20, 2025, 151 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, totaling 705,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, totaling 159,880 TEU [8]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of July was 272,000 TEU. In August, the average weekly capacity was 310,500 TEU, and in September it was 276,400 TEU. Maersk will add two additional ships in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The situation of container ship passage through major canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is presented in the figures, which can reflect the impact on the supply chain [66][68][74]. - The congestion ratio and congested capacity of global container ships are also shown in the figures, which are important factors affecting the supply chain [57]. V. Demand and European Economy - Figures such as the EU 27's industrial production index, import value from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year can reflect the demand and economic situation in Europe [39][40][41]. - China's export volume to the EU and total export volume can also provide insights into the demand side [43][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates in the container shipping industry are currently at a high level and are expected to remain volatile. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level oscillation and game - based delivery situation, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - position allocation, and the 12 - month contract is affected by the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [3][4]. - The strategies include the main contract oscillating, an arbitrage strategy of going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in the 31st week is 1855/3110, and HPL's 8 - month first - half - month shipping schedule quote is 2235/3535 [1]. - Geopolitically, there has been "significant progress" in the Gaza cease - fire negotiations. The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance. Maersk will add two additional ships in August [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The freight rate is in high - level oscillation. The estimated average freight rate in the first half of August is about $3200/FEU. The final settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - **10 - month contract**: It is a off - season contract, mainly for short - position allocation. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's pricing strategy will change due to the addition of two ships in August [4]. - **12 - month contract**: The regular pattern of peak and off - season still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 17, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures is 84,091 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 80,457 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1485.70 and EC2508 at 2164.50 [5]. - On July 11, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is $2099/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is $2194/TEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is $4172/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1266.59 points [5][6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 5. Strategies and Risks - **Strategies**: The main contract oscillates. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - **Risks**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected ship deliveries, insufficient ship idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain issues, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to ship detours [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate for the 8 - month contract has likely appeared, and it is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially whether the PA Alliance will adjust prices [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty lies in the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [5]. - In December, the freight rate of the Far East - Europe route is usually higher than that in October. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation, which may challenge the seasonal pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes of different alliances for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary by shipping company and shipping period. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's price for week 29 is 1785/2990; in the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC's 7 - month upper - half - month shipping period quote is 2180/3640 [1]. II. Geopolitical Situation - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a joint military operation on the 7th, using missiles and drones to attack important targets in Israel in response to the Israeli army's attacks on Yemeni ports and power stations [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3]. IV. Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The freight rate is likely to peak and decline. The top of the freight rate has probably emerged, and the current market average price in the first half of July is around $3300/FEU. The settlement price of the 8 - month contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **10 - month contract**: It is an off - season contract mainly for short - allocation. The focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation before October [5]. - **12 - month contract**: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk is the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [7]. V. Shipping Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 8, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 80,726.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 30,740.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1323.90 and EC2508 at 1888.50 [7]. - On July 4, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2101.00/TEU, and on July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2258.04 points [7]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU [8]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [9].