Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report explores the theme of "anti-involution" in the commodity futures market, highlighting the performance of key commodities such as coking coal, iron ore, glass, and polysilicon during July 2025 [11][12] - It discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors, including weak domestic investment and U.S. tariff shocks, which have pressured industrial product demand and led to a decline in upstream raw material prices [12][13] - The report analyzes the behavior of traders during the 2025 futures trading competition, revealing that the majority of participants, particularly in the lightweight group, faced significant losses despite the overall market volatility [31][34] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The first half of 2025 saw a decline in industrial product prices due to weak domestic investment growth of 2.8%, significantly below the GDP growth of 5.3% [12] - The PPI was under pressure, with upstream mining prices down 13.2% year-on-year by June, and the South China commodity index and industrial product price index also fell by 2.5% and 6.7% respectively [13][14] - In July, market sentiment improved following a key meeting of the Central Financial Committee, leading to a significant rebound in futures prices, particularly for coking coal and iron ore [22][23] 2. Wealth Distribution Changes - The report categorizes participants in the futures trading competition into four groups: lightweight, heavyweight, high-net-worth, and quantitative groups, with the lightweight group having the highest number of accounts but over 50% of them reporting losses [31][34] - The overall profitability of participants was closely correlated with the price movements of industrial products, with the high-net-worth group performing the best [36][40] - The report notes that despite the overall market conditions, the lightweight group faced high transaction costs, with fees exceeding 10% of total holdings [35][36] 3. Future Outlook and Market Insights - The report indicates that commodity valuations have returned to neutral levels, suggesting that any future price increases may depend on orderly policy adjustments [48][49] - It emphasizes that speculative profits in futures trading are typically realized during price increases, and frequent trading can lead to significant losses due to transaction costs [54] - The report concludes that the future performance of commodities will likely hinge on supply-side policies and the recovery of demand, particularly in the real estate sector [51][52]

经过一年的角逐，第四届七禾东吴杯英雄联盟大赛圆满结束，第五届已荣耀开启。参赛账户【福州王霆】获得冠军！ 该账户累计净值1.7211，累计收益率72.11%，累计净利润23.03万元，最大回撤1%，综合积分245.1分夺冠。 操作人：福州王霆，毕业于中国地质大学。读研究生期间开始交易期货，至今已15年，具有丰富的实战经验，拥有一套成熟完善的跨期套利交易模式，年 化收益高，最大回撤低。个人认为长期盈利的期货投资者必须具备可靠的交易系统，同时还要很好地控制风险，多品种分散投资和严格的仓位管理有助于 降低最大回撤。交易不顺的阶段，不要轻易怀疑自己，交易顺风顺水的阶段，也不能被胜利冲昏头脑，这样方能成为期货行业的寿星。王霆认为要成为长 期盈利的少数人，必须具备：反应快盘感强；熟悉现货和产业链；有可靠的交易策略。 现在通过七禾网报名，符合条件的账户可以同时参加三个大赛："期货CTA英雄联盟"实盘大赛、蓝海密剑对冲基金经理公开赛、第十九届全国期货实盘大 赛。 只要你有实力，就来报名吧！奖金，福利不停！学习，交流不断！更能享受七禾特殊福利：享受交易所保证金、交易所手续费+0或+1分的优惠；指定公 司开户参赛享奖金翻倍！ 参赛 ...