期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | 宏观金融 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | ◆股指： | | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | | 黑色建材 | 区间交易 | | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | ◆螺纹钢： | | | 09 空头看待 | ◆玻璃： | | | | 有色金属 | | | | | 建议低位适度持多 | ◆铜： | | | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | ◆铝： | | | | 建议观望或逢高做空 | ◆镍： | 区间交易 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | ◆黄金： | | | 区间交易 | ◆白银： | | | | 能源化工 | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | 震荡 | ◆烧碱： | | 震荡 | ◆苯乙烯： | | | | 震荡 | ◆橡胶： | | | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | | 棉纺产业链 | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | | 震荡运行 | ◆苹果： | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/08/26 | -105.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/25 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/22 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/21 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/20 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/08/26 2025/08/25 2025/08/22 2025/08/21 2025/08/20 130 ...

商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格震荡，市场逐步消化鲍威尔讲话。 | | | | | | | 金 | | 基本面：特朗普政府据称考虑因数字服务法制裁欧盟官员。国内黄金 ETF | 资金小幅流出，COMEX | | | 黄金库存 | | | 属 | 1199 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1113 | | | 吨，增加 | 4 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | 白银库存 | 15823 | 吨，增加 7 | | 吨；伦 | | | 敦 7 | 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 | 吨左右。全球最大白银 | | etf--iShares | | 持有 | | | 量为 | 15288 吨，增加 11 吨。 | | | | | | | | | 交易策略： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 （元/吨） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/08/25 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/22 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/21 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/20 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/19 | -99.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/08/25 2025/08/22 2025/08/21 2025/08/20 2025/ ...

橡胶：回落做多 橡胶期货 研究结论 策略周报（8.18—8.22） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场小幅回落，价格区间震荡 基本面因素偏多支撑价格 回落做多 策略周报 一、期货行情回顾 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2601 | 15850 | 16020 | 15470 | 15625 | -1.76% | | NR2510 | 12710 | 12790 | 12350 | 12510 | -1.57% | | BR2510 | 11835 | 11980 | 11355 | 11660 | -1.35% | 本周市场小幅回落，未能突破震荡区间平台上沿。但价格在下方有支撑，多头 形态保持良好，后市有望延续多头格局。 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14650 元/吨，相比上周下跌 100 元/吨 ...

2025年08月25日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五贵金属大幅反弹，鲍威尔讲话引发市场巨震。 | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：鲍威尔央行年会上讲话，称劳动力市场指标稳定使联储能谨慎考虑政策调整，基准前景和风险平衡 | | | | | | 属 | 变化可能需要联储调整政策立场；不过周末美联储官员古尔比斯讲话重提关注通胀问题。国内黄金 | | 资金 | ETF | | | | 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1199 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，增加 1 吨；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | | | | | | 吨；上期所白银库存 1109 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | | | | 白银库 | | | 存 15816 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全 | | | | | | | 球最大白银 etf- ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Equity Index [2] - Cautiously Bearish: Treasury Bonds, Coke, Coking Coal, Carbonate Lithium [2][7] - Bearish: Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass, Crude Oil [6][7] - Bullish: Rubber [8] - Sideways: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Methanol, Polyolefins, Cotton [5][8] 2. Core Views - The equity index is on an upward trend with continuous inflow of funds and clear long - term narratives, so a long - position strategy should be maintained [2]. - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and lack of new positive factors [2]. - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and short - position strategies are recommended [7]. - Rubber's fundamentals are improving, and long - position strategies should be continued [3][8]. - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decisions [5]. - Silver maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - Copper prices are supported in the medium - to long - term by tight mine supply, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy [5]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are in a sideways pattern, with limited downward space for alumina and clear medium - term support for aluminum [5]. - Nickel prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern, and selling call options is recommended [5]. - Carbonate lithium supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [6]. - Polysilicon prices may decline due to the need for market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - Rebar prices are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - Coke prices are mainly sideways, and coking coal prices are under pressure [7]. - Float glass prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - Crude oil prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - Methanol prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - Cotton demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Equity Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the bullish sentiment is rising. With continuous capital inflow and clear long - term narratives, the upward trend is clear, and long positions should be held [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is weak, affected by the strong stock market. Without new positive factors, the bearish pattern continues [2]. Commodity Futures - **Soda Ash**: The industry has an oversupply situation. With the possible commissioning of new devices, supply pressure will increase, and previous short positions in SA601 should be held [3][7]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, with stable demand and slow raw - material production increase. Long positions in RU2601 should be held [3][8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Prices are in a high - level sideways pattern. The Fed's interest - rate decisions and the speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium are key factors [5]. - **Silver**: Maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply is tight in the medium - to long - term, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar trend [5]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina has an overcapacity situation but low valuation, and aluminum has clear medium - term support. Both are in a sideways pattern [5]. - **Nickel**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, and prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern. Selling call options is recommended [5]. - **Lithium and Silicon** - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. Aggressive investors can hold previous short positions lightly [6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon supply is abundant, and polysilicon prices may decline due to market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - **Steel and Iron** - **Rebar**: Fundamentals are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options in RB2510C3300 is recommended [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - **Coal and Coke** - **Coke**: Prices are mainly sideways, affected by environmental protection policies on both supply and demand sides [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are under pressure due to weakening demand from steel and coke enterprises [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - **Soda Ash**: Maintains an oversupply situation, and previous short positions in the 01 contract should be held [7]. - **Float Glass**: Prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - **Chemicals** - **Methanol**: Prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, and long positions should be held [3][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information was provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, industrial products, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as supply - demand dynamics, seasonal patterns, and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly. Supply capacity increased, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price increased. Supply capacity continued to rise, and there was an oversupply pressure. It is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The price increased. Supply increased significantly, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, with a slight inventory build - up. Interval trading is suggested [2]. Industrial Products - **Silicon**: The price declined. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped sharply. Supply and demand are expected to be tight from August to October. Due to large - scale outflow of long - speculating funds, the price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price rose slightly. Supply and demand are balanced with structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see on the single - side [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased. Supply and demand are moderately strong with a weakening margin. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased. Supply and demand are relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price changed little. Supply may shrink in the short - term and increase in the long - term. Demand has differences. The domestic price is expected to follow the international cost - end and fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Corn**: The price fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuated strongly. International production has differences, and domestic demand showed signs of recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price declined. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. The short - term trading is difficult, and the long - term outlook is tight [7]. - **Eggs**: The price fluctuated. Supply was sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Hogs**: The price was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: The price was stable. PX supply is at a high level, and PTA supply is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on PX and short PTA processing fees or far - month contracts [8][9]. - **Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand was for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pull - back [9]. - **PP**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The price was stable. Supply and demand were in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10].