Core Viewpoint - The exchanges have increased transaction fees for glass, soda ash, and caustic soda to cool down the market, leading to a significant drop in trading volume and a mixed performance in the black commodities sector [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Fee Adjustments - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced an increase in transaction fees for glass, soda ash, and caustic soda effective from July 30, 2025, with specific fees set at 10 CNY per hand for glass, 0.04% of transaction value for soda ash, and 0.02% of transaction value for caustic soda [1]. - Following the fee adjustments, there was a notable rebound in previously declining commodities, with coking coal rising over 6%, glass over 4%, and coking coke over 4% [1]. Group 2: Market Activity and Trends - The trading volume in the futures market has significantly decreased, with a 31.89% drop to 38.76 million hands and a 23.45% decrease in transaction value to 321.26 billion CNY, marking the lowest levels since July 21 [2]. - Specific commodities like glass and soda ash saw trading volume declines of 26.3% and 32.5%, respectively, while coking coal's volume dropped nearly 40% to 2.96 million hands [2]. - Glass and soda ash continue to experience capital outflows, with 221 million CNY and 102 million CNY leaving the respective markets [2]. Group 3: Black Commodity Sector Dynamics - The black commodity sector showed mixed performance, with coking coal prices declining but at a reduced rate, influenced by the rise in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices, which increased by around 2% [4]. - The main rebar contract closed at 3,347 CNY per ton, with a trading volume increase of 239,000 hands and a capital inflow of 1.39 billion CNY, indicating a shift in investment focus towards rebar and hot-rolled coil [4]. - The construction materials ETF saw significant fluctuations, with a peak of 1.648 billion units on July 24, followed by a reduction to 953 million units by July 28, reflecting a capital outflow exceeding 500 million CNY [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in black commodities were primarily driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental changes, with ongoing "anti-involution" policies expected to influence future market conditions [5]. - There is a consensus regarding potential production cuts in September, but the actual impact remains uncertain, indicating a need for caution regarding price volatility [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the futures market, particularly in the black and new energy metal sectors, driven by a cooling of market sentiment and substantial capital outflows [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, the black series led the decline, with coking coal dropping over 10%, glass down more than 7%, lithium carbonate falling over 6%, and soda ash decreasing over 4% [2]. - Following the overnight declines, more commodities experienced a cascading drop, with coking coal and glass leading the way, coking coal falling over 12% and glass over 10% [3]. - By 10:30 AM, some commodities showed slight rebounds, but overall, the market sentiment remained pessimistic with significant capital outflows across various sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - The overall capital flow in the market has shown a continuous outflow trend, with a notable shift in sentiment as profit-taking by long positions began after last Friday's night session [4]. - On July 28, the total capital outflow in the commodity futures market reached 20.29 billion yuan, with the black chain seeing an outflow of 8.5 billion yuan and precious metals and coal sectors around 5 billion yuan each [4]. - The black sector and new energy metals were particularly sensitive to capital outflows, indicating a lack of significant improvement in supply-demand fundamentals without new industrial policies [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - In the first half of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.8% year-on-year, which is an improvement compared to a 2.8% decline in producer prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that future commodity prices may become more structured, with the overall push for PPI recovery being more critical than the height of the market [5]. - The rise of the US dollar has emerged as a significant variable affecting the commodity market, with the dollar index increasing by 1%, marking the largest single-day gain since May [6].