第三，全球市场仍旧是"对冲共存"的状态，股市涨、美元不跌、黄金不弱、债券收益率高企——市场不 相信单一叙事。这不是牛市的上涨，更像一次集体犹豫。 来源：华尔街情报圈 黄金、美股期货、原油周一开盘上涨——美股上周五涨得不错，缓解了市场的紧张氛围。 但要注意一个词："成交清淡"。马上进入假期模式，很多资金已经开始"收摊"，这种时候的上涨，幅度 可能被放大，但含金量并不高。 第一，上周标普500指数站上6800点，纳斯达克指数突破50日移动均线，比特币稳稳站上85000美元—— 所以从本周一开始的一个主题将是"博年末反弹"（不是"看好明年"）。从这个角度分析，本周阻力最小 的路径是"上涨"，但唯一的风险在于共识会越来越一致。一旦被过度讨论，就会出现两种结果：提前透 支，或者上涨更快、但更短命。 第二，对投资者而言，仍旧是一个具有期待的环境，因为市场仍旧押注美联储明年将有两次降息（合 理，不激进），人们会继续带着希望押注下去。市场没有方向，只是在博概率。 第四，市场真正的"分水岭"，不在假期，而在1月——不是一个点，而是一段"重新定价期"。 中国：如果1月政策信号不够明确，耐心资金会继续观望。 美国：一旦"1月不降息 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets showed significant divergence due to policy adjustments, data delays, and fluctuations in risk sentiment [1] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown provided clearer policy signals, leading to a new pricing process for major assets [1] - The cautious stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation has cooled expectations for interest rate cuts by year-end [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Important economic data was delayed during the shutdown, leading to increased reliance on expectations for trading [1] - Despite a short-term recovery in sentiment, investors remain wary of potential shocks from the backlog of economic data [1] - The absence of employment, inflation, and manufacturing data has increased volatility in certain assets, with data uncertainty being a major market disruptor [1] Group 3: Asset Class Performance - Market risk appetite has seen some recovery, with funds flowing back into equities and high-beta assets [1] - Structural differences in recovery are evident, with technology and growth sectors performing better, while energy and financial sectors are constrained by fundamentals and interest rate expectations [1] - Safe-haven assets have experienced mixed fund flows, with gold under pressure but maintaining key support levels [1][4][5] Group 4: Stock Market Dynamics - Global stock markets continued to show a volatile rebound, with significant structural differentiation [6] - High-valuation sectors exhibited greater volatility, while low-valuation cyclical sectors remained weak, indicating that investors have not fully shifted to a risk-on mode [6] - The core themes of the week include policy return, sentiment repair, and ongoing risks, with the end of the U.S. shutdown providing certainty but leaving Fed policy direction unclear [6]

Core Insights - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has shifted market sentiment, reducing risk aversion and warming up risk assets, but volatility may still be on the horizon [1] Economic Data Release - Key economic data that was delayed due to the shutdown will be released next week, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales, new housing starts and building permits, and consumer confidence index [2][6] Market Dynamics - The market has been operating on expectations during the shutdown, with the Federal Reserve unable to access the latest data. The release of this data may lead to a market re-evaluation [3] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from approximately 72% to 50% [3] - The end of the shutdown has led to a short-term increase in risk appetite, with U.S. stock futures rebounding and the dollar stabilizing, although this rebound may not indicate a trend reversal [3] Potential Market Movements - The bond market may undergo re-pricing due to delayed fiscal spending, which could increase debt risks and put upward pressure on yields. Rising yields may first impact high-leverage assets like gold and tech stocks [3] - U.S. stocks may experience a "divergent market" where sector rotation occurs rather than a broad market rally, with tech stocks sensitive to yield changes and financial stocks reacting significantly to the interest rate cycle [4] Gold Market Outlook - Gold is at a critical juncture, with its price currently in a weak but unbroken range. The upcoming week will be pivotal for gold's direction, influenced by delayed data, the Federal Reserve's stance, bond yield trends, and the re-pricing of risk assets [5][8] - If economic data is weak, rate cut expectations may rise, potentially boosting gold prices and tech stocks. Conversely, strong data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed maintaining its stance, resulting in rising bond yields and pressure on both U.S. stocks and gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the futures market, particularly in the black and new energy metal sectors, driven by a cooling of market sentiment and substantial capital outflows [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, the black series led the decline, with coking coal dropping over 10%, glass down more than 7%, lithium carbonate falling over 6%, and soda ash decreasing over 4% [2]. - Following the overnight declines, more commodities experienced a cascading drop, with coking coal and glass leading the way, coking coal falling over 12% and glass over 10% [3]. - By 10:30 AM, some commodities showed slight rebounds, but overall, the market sentiment remained pessimistic with significant capital outflows across various sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - The overall capital flow in the market has shown a continuous outflow trend, with a notable shift in sentiment as profit-taking by long positions began after last Friday's night session [4]. - On July 28, the total capital outflow in the commodity futures market reached 20.29 billion yuan, with the black chain seeing an outflow of 8.5 billion yuan and precious metals and coal sectors around 5 billion yuan each [4]. - The black sector and new energy metals were particularly sensitive to capital outflows, indicating a lack of significant improvement in supply-demand fundamentals without new industrial policies [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - In the first half of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.8% year-on-year, which is an improvement compared to a 2.8% decline in producer prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that future commodity prices may become more structured, with the overall push for PPI recovery being more critical than the height of the market [5]. - The rise of the US dollar has emerged as a significant variable affecting the commodity market, with the dollar index increasing by 1%, marking the largest single-day gain since May [6].