1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and the overall market is expected to continue to be slightly stronger. The international device operating rate continued to decline, the gas restriction in Iran expanded, most of the devices stopped, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, and the overall trading was light. The coal price fell weakly, the domestic supply was loose, the MTO start - up in the inland area was stable, and the price in the inland area fluctuated weakly and stably. The Fed's interest rate cut in December had a weakening impact on methanol futures, and future import disturbances will intensify [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures price closed at 2148, down 24 or 1.1% [2] - Spot market: Different production and consumption regions had different spot prices, such as 1930 yuan/ton in the southern line of Inner Mongolia and 2200 yuan/ton in the Lunan region [2] Important Information - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.10%, a decrease of 7.44 percentage points from the previous week. Ningbo Fude stopped production last week, and this week the devices mainly maintained the previous load [3] Logical Analysis - Supply side: The profit of coal - to - methanol was around 450 yuan/ton, the domestic methanol operating rate was stable at a high level, and the domestic supply was continuously loose [4] - Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most of the Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, the tender premium increased, the non - Iranian operating rate was stable, the European and American markets continued to decline, the domestic and foreign price difference shrank rapidly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 610,000 tons had been loaded in Iran in December, some non - Iranian supplies were postponed to January, the import volume in January was expected to increase to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrivals in Taicang increased [4] - Demand side: The operating rate of MTO devices declined. Some MTO devices had different operating loads, such as the 690,000 - ton/year MTO device of Xingxing was stable, while some devices of Nanjing Chengzhi and others were operating under - loaded, and the 600,000 - ton/year DMTO device of Ningbo Fude stopped [4] - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was relatively strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go long on the 05 contract at low prices [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The high inventory pressure on methanol remains, and the market is in a weak state. The international device operating rate has increased, with some devices in Iran restarted and daily output rising to around 35,000 tons. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The US dollar price has been continuously falling, and imports remain in a positive spread situation. The downstream demand is stable, but the port inventory continues to accumulate. Coal prices are stable, coal - to - methanol profits are stable, and domestic supply is abundant. The methanol market is expected to continue its weak trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw material coal**: As of November 20, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos is 76%, and in Yulin is 46%. The coal mines have resumed production, and the daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The demand is fair, and the pit - mouth price is firm [4]. - **Supply**: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level. Domestic supply is continuously loose. The US dollar price has been falling, and imports remain in a positive spread. The operating rate of non - Iranian devices has increased slightly, and the external market operating rate has risen to a high level [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded. Some MTO devices are running stable, while some are operating at less - than - full capacity [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is relatively strong. The inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly. However, with the increase in arrivals and a slight decline in MTO operating rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4]. - **Trading strategies**: For single - side trading, stop - profit on short positions; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 20, the overall operating load of domestic methanol devices is 76.25%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.54 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 85.76%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from last week but a decrease of 0.64 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol devices is 68.34%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 15 - 21, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output is 1,068,585 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate is 73.25%, unchanged from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 30.94 tons, including 28.87 tons from overseas vessels and 2.07 tons from domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 20, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region is 85.31%, an increase of 1.668 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 90.36%, with a slight increase in the weekly average operating rate [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.69%, a 6.75% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 69.59%. The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.01%, with an increase in overall capacity utilization rate [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 8.69 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons from the previous statistical date, a 2.14% decrease [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory is 35.87 tons, a decrease of 1.06 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 24.63 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous period, a 0.37% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of November 19, 2025, the total port inventory is 147.93 tons, a decrease of 6.43 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 3.86 tons, and in South China by 2.57 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The chemical coal in the northwest region is firm, and the methanol price is stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 322 yuan/ton. The MTO loss is narrowing, and the basis is stable [5]. 8. Spot Price - The price of Taicang is 1990 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan), and the price of the northern line is 1960 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan) [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report, dated November 17, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - Methanol futures continue to decline. With increased international production, improved imports, and high domestic supply, combined with stable downstream demand and a slight decline in MTO operation rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the high - inventory situation and the approaching Iranian gas - restriction season, methanol is likely to continue its downward trend [2][4] Group 4: Market Review Futures Market - The futures price closed at 2029, down 52 or 2.5% [2] Spot Market - Production areas: Inner Mongolia South Line at 1960 yuan/ton, North Line at 1940 yuan/ton; Guanzhong at 1880 yuan/ton, Yulin at 1900 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 1980 yuan/ton, Henan at 2020 yuan/ton [2] - Consumption areas: Southern Shandong at 2100 yuan/ton, Northern Shandong at 2150 yuan/ton, Hebei at 2080 yuan/ton; Southwest: Sichuan - Chongqing at 1980 yuan/ton, Yunnan - Guizhou at 2040 yuan/ton [2] - Ports: Taicang at 2000 yuan/ton, Ningbo at 2000 yuan/ton, Guangzhou at 1990 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Important Information - In the week from November 8 - 14, 2025, international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,072,505 tons, an increase of 21,896 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 73.52%, up 1.50% [3] Group 6: Logic Analysis Supply - Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous ample supply [4] Import - US dollar prices are falling rapidly, the import premium is widening. Iranian plants are all operating normally, non - Iranian operation rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operation rate has returned to a high level. The price difference between China and Europe has decreased, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 690,000 tons in November, and non - Iranian supplies are abundant [4] Demand - The MTO plant operation rate has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others have sub - full loads [4] Inventory - Port arrivals have slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; inland enterprise inventory has narrow fluctuations. However, with increased arrivals and a slight decline in MTO operation rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6] Group 8: Related Charts - Charts show historical data on methanol port inventory, enterprise inventory, order backlog, and various plant operation rates from 2021 - 2025 [7][9]