Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of AI replacement processes is reshaping the express delivery industry, which serves as a significant "reservoir" for flexible employment. The end-of-line rights protection policies are expected to stabilize and increase delivery fees, leading to a recovery in single-ticket prices and gradually releasing corporate profit elasticity. The industry is anticipated to experience high-quality development, concentrating profits and market shares among leading companies [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Recovery - The express delivery industry shows strong demand resilience, with companies accelerating their resumption of operations. From December 29, 2025, to February 22, 2026, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 28.642 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while the delivery volume was 29.369 billion pieces, up 6.8% year-on-year. The overall volume maintained a steady growth trend in January and February [1][2]. Group 2: End-of-Line Rights Protection Policies - The national postal work conference in 2026 emphasized "penetrating" regulation to address issues like "punishment upon complaint" and promote the implementation of new social security policies, effectively safeguarding the rights of delivery personnel. The new social security regulations are expected to convert previously unregulated hidden costs into a unified rigid cost for all players, while minimum delivery fee guidelines will create a rigid price transmission point [2]. Group 3: Investment Analysis - The express delivery industry is viewed positively, with recommendations for companies like YTO Express and ZTO Express, which are expected to enhance their competitive advantages. Attention is also drawn to Shentong Express for its performance elasticity. Jitu Express is noted for its accelerated growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, while SF Express is recognized for its management structure and business line adjustments, presenting potential bottom-fishing opportunities [3].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 物流 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 26 日 行业高质量发展，看好快递量价表 现 看好 ——快递行业点评 - ⚫ AI 替代进程加快，快递行业作为灵活就业的重要"蓄水池"，末端权益保障政策有望 带动末端派费企稳回升，单票价格进入修复通道，企业盈利弹性逐步释放，看好行业高 质量发展下头部企业利润、份额双集中，推荐圆通速递、中通快递，关注申通快递、极 兔速递、顺丰控股。 ⚫ 行业需求韧性较强，快递企业加速复工复产。根据交通运输部数据，2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2 ...