末端权益保障政策重塑成本与价格结构 2026年全国邮政工作会议明确强调"穿透式"监管，纠治"接诉即罚"，并推动社保新政落地，有力保障快 递员权益。社保与规范用工锁定成本底线，部分快递企业尤其是加盟网点，过去通过少缴、漏缴社保及 大量使用劳务外包来规避人力成本，2026年社保新规的落地有利于将过去游离于监管之外的隐性成本， 强制性地化为所有玩家的统一刚性成本。同时最低派费指导形成价格传导的刚性支点，在当前各家中转 运输成本趋同且优化速度放缓的情况下，派费占比较高(以圆通速递为例，24年单票揽收及派送服务成 本为1.35元，占比为65%)，一定程度上决定了快递的价格。 投资分析意见 AI替代进程加快，快递行业作为灵活就业的重要"蓄水池"，末端权益保障政策有望带动末端派费企稳回 升，单票价格进入修复通道，企业盈利弹性逐步释放，看好行业高质量发展下头部企业利润、份额双集 中。推荐竞争力持续提升的圆通速递、优势持续扩大的中通快递，关注申通快递的业绩弹性。极兔速递 东南亚及新市场业务量加速增长，看好公司未来的持续领先优势及行业地位。顺丰控股管理结构和业务 线调整充分，关注底部配置机遇。 风险提示：行业价格竞争程度超预期; ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 物流 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 26 日 行业高质量发展，看好快递量价表 现 看好 ——快递行业点评 - ⚫ AI 替代进程加快，快递行业作为灵活就业的重要"蓄水池"，末端权益保障政策有望 带动末端派费企稳回升，单票价格进入修复通道，企业盈利弹性逐步释放，看好行业高 质量发展下头部企业利润、份额双集中，推荐圆通速递、中通快递，关注申通快递、极 兔速递、顺丰控股。 ⚫ 行业需求韧性较强，快递企业加速复工复产。根据交通运输部数据，2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2 ...

Market Overview - JD Group's stock closed at HKD 106.40 on February 13, down 1.85%, falling below the 60-day moving average of HKD 113.187, primarily due to weak market conditions [1] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.72% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.90%, with the online retail sector declining by 1.98%, reflecting overall market sentiment [1] Fund and Technical Analysis - There was a net outflow of HKD 44.7193 million in JD's stock on February 13, with large sell orders accounting for 24%, indicating strong short-term selling pressure from institutions [2] - The stock has been trading below the 60-day moving average for several consecutive days, with the MACD histogram remaining negative and the KDJ indicator in the oversold zone, suggesting increased technical selling pressure [2] Company Developments - Despite JD's announcement of over HKD 1.3 billion in welfare subsidies for the Spring Festival and a future investment of HKD 22 billion in the "Little Brother Home" initiative, the market remains focused on short-term performance pressures and the impact of new business investments on profitability [3] - An incident involving the theft of goods from a warehouse in Paris was reported, with most items recovered by February 14; however, this event occurred in December 2025 and had limited direct impact on the stock price as of February 13 [3] Valuation Metrics - As of February 13, JD's price-to-earnings ratio stood at 8.56 and the price-to-book ratio at 1.19, indicating that the stock is at a historical low valuation; however, concerns about slowing growth in the e-commerce sector and increased competition are suppressing the potential for valuation recovery [4] - The decline below the 60-day moving average is attributed to a combination of overall market sentiment, capital outflows, and technical breakdowns rather than a single negative event [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued decline in the stock price of INLF, closing at $0.40 on February 13, 2026, with a daily drop of 6.59% [1] - The stock opened at $0.41, reached a high of $0.41, and a low of $0.35, with a trading volume of $162,700 and a turnover rate of 0.19%. The cumulative decline over the past five trading days has reached 18.66% [2] - The market sentiment remains weak, with concerns over AI replacement leading to selling pressure, particularly affecting small-cap tech stocks like INLF, despite mixed performance in major US indices [3] Group 2 - The company's fundamentals are weak, indicated by a negative price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of -8.29, reflecting ongoing losses and a lack of improvement in profitability. The business is heavily concentrated in the injection molding robotic arm sector, accounting for over 65% of revenue, making it vulnerable to manufacturing cycle fluctuations [4] - Low liquidity amplifies volatility, as evidenced by the trading volume of only $162,700 and a turnover rate of 0.19%. This low participation means that even small sell orders can significantly impact the stock price, resulting in a daily fluctuation of 13.00% [5] - The technical support has been breached, with the stock price falling below the previous day's closing price of $0.42 and approaching the year-to-date low of $0.35, which may have triggered concentrated stop-loss selling [6]

Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price of INLF.OQ closed at $0.45 on February 12, 2026, with a daily decline of 8.98% [1] - The stock has seen a cumulative decline of 14.15% over the past five days and a year-to-date drop of 7.19% [1] - The trading volume for the day was approximately $88,200, with a turnover rate of 0.09%, indicating low liquidity [4] Group 2: Market Context - On February 12, major U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the Nasdaq down 1.63%, S&P 500 down 1.20%, and Dow Jones down 1.18% [2] - The commercial equipment services sector, to which INLF.OQ belongs, declined by 0.74%, underperforming the broader market [2] Group 3: Company Fundamentals - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is negative at -9.36, indicating weak profitability [3] - The main business focus is on injection molding robotic arms, which account for over 65% of its operations, leading to a single business structure vulnerable to manufacturing cycle fluctuations [3] Group 4: Technical and Financial Aspects - The stock price fell below the previous closing price of $0.49 and approached the year-to-date low of $0.44, with short-term moving average support being breached [4] - The shift of main capital from small-cap stocks to defensive sectors has made INLF.OQ, as a small-cap stock with a total market value of approximately $9.9 million, more susceptible to marginalization [4]

分析师们还谈到了加密货币市场的波动性，Kilburg将MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)比作"一把落刀"，该股已 从历史高点下跌了72%。Kilburg 表示，"加密货币整体上正处于一个考验的时刻"，并指出在困境时 期，加密货币"会变得过于冷淡，并且与整体全球宏观情绪不符"。 在人工智能快速发展的背景下，市场催生了"AI替代"恐慌情绪，美股软件板块近期遭遇大幅抛售。在这 种背景下，除了重点的软件股，高盛点名另类资产管理公司和直接贷款机构也受到冲击。但包括华尔街 投行Wedbush分析师在内的一些专家仍看到相关的投资机会。 Wedbush Securities全球科技研究主管Dan Ives表示，今年将是苹果(AAPL.US)的突破之年。在接受采访 时，Ives预测，人工智能可能会使公司每股估值增加"75 至 100 美元"，他驳斥了对欧洲监管机构的担 忧，并指出苹果在消费者人工智能领域采取了积极的战略定位。他将这种情况与Alphabet(GOOGL.US) 去年的强劲表现进行了比较。 KKM Financial 的创始人、首席执行官兼首席投资官 Jeff Kilburg 指出，投资者一直在抛售英伟 ...

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, marking the highest level in over four years, up from 4.4% in September [2][3] - The job market is showing signs of "high-frequency volatility and low-speed growth," with three months of net job losses in the past six months [3] - November saw an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs, which was above the expected 45,000, but insufficient to offset previous job losses [4][3] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily occurring in low productivity or government-dependent sectors, while sectors representing economic vitality, such as manufacturing and professional services, are contracting [6] - Federal government jobs decreased by 6,000 in November and saw a significant drop of 162,000 in October, with a total reduction of approximately 270,000 since January [8][9] - The wage growth in the private sector fell to 3.5% year-over-year in November, the lowest in years, indicating that wage increases are not keeping pace with living costs [11][12] Group 3 - The current employment situation is characterized as "low-fire, low-hire," where companies are hesitant to make large layoffs or expand hiring, reflecting a cautious approach to seasonal employment and the testing of AI replacements [15] - The report suggests that the true state of the U.S. job market may be weaker than indicated, as the Federal Reserve has warned that current statistical models may overestimate job additions by about 60,000 each month [13][14] - The employment market is entering a dangerous phase, showing signs of cooling without a clear collapse, which could lead to a prolonged period of economic uncertainty [17]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower, currently at 25,800 points, down 0.54% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also opened lower, currently at 5,565 points, down 0.88% [4] Sector Performance - The rare earth, non-ferrous metals, and tourism sectors showed strong gains, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Jiangxi Copper rising over 3% [6] - Conversely, the e-commerce and blockchain sectors experienced significant declines, with Gome Retail dropping over 6% and NetEase-S down over 2% [6] New Listings - Two newly listed stocks opened below their issue prices, with Yujian Xiaomian (HK02408) trading at HKD 5.28, down approximately 25% from its issue price, and Tianyu Semiconductor (HK02658) at HKD 44.6, down about 23% [6] Industry Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on the Macau gaming industry for next year, expecting strong demand supported by diverse tourism products and increased market promotion, raising revenue growth forecasts for the next two years to 9% and 6% respectively [8] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong market could create opportunities for 2026, highlighting the impact of the "K-shaped economy" and the necessity for a rate cut in December due to rising unemployment rates [8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on December 3, with the Hang Seng Index falling to 25,980.89 points, down 114.16 points, a decline of 0.44% [1][9] - The Hang Seng Technology Index reported a decrease to 5,595.53 points, down 28.51 points, a decline of 0.51% [3][13] New Listings - Two new stocks were listed on the same day: - LeMo Technology (HK02539) opened over 60% higher, later increasing to a peak of 72.3 HKD, representing a 70% rise. The company operates shared massage equipment in high-traffic public areas across China [5][11] - Jinyan Kaolin New Materials (HK02693) opened 27.4% higher, reaching a maximum of 9.8 HKD. The company specializes in the mining, processing, and sales of coal series kaolin, being a large-scale and standardized producer in China [5][11] Sector Performance - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Technology Index, NetEase fell over 2%, while Alibaba and Bilibili dropped over 1%. Automotive stocks continued to decline, with NIO and XPeng down over 3%, BYD down over 1%, and Li Auto showing a slight rebound [5][11] Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the market style is expected to be balanced from December to January, with large-cap, low-valuation, and cyclical styles likely to dominate. Consumer sectors such as home appliances, food and beverage, textiles, and social services are anticipated to perform well during this period due to expectations of increased growth policies ahead of the new year [12] - Guosen Securities highlighted the impact of the "K-shaped economy" in the U.S. and the necessity of addressing rising unemployment rates, suggesting that a rate cut in December is essential. The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken in early 2026, which would benefit the valuation recovery of emerging markets [6][12]