Workflow
AI替代
icon
Search documents
表面增长难掩结构隐患:美国高生产率行业收缩,经济活力减退
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 00:01
美国就业数据,终于"补交作业"了。 在经历了长达43天的联邦政府停摆之后,美国劳工部一次性公布了被延迟的就业报告。但这份迟到的数据,没有带来市场 期待的"确定性",反而释放出一个更令人警惕的信号——美国就业市场,正在悄然降温。 一、失业率升至4.6%,四年新高 11月,美国失业率升至4.6%,创下四年多以来的最高水平。 如果你只看总数,很容易被误导;但如果看行业结构,问题就清晰了: 相比之下,9月为4.4%,10月因政府停摆甚至无法统计。 表面看,这只是0.2个百分点的上升;但如果拆解数据,会发现这并不是一次"无关痛痒"的波动。 1. 过去6个月中,美国有3个月出现净就业岗位减少 2. 就业市场呈现出明显的"高频波动+低速增长"特征 3. 失业率上行,与岗位增长出现罕见背离 这通常不是健康周期的信号。 图1. 美国失业率2024-2025年走势图。 二、64,000个新增岗位,为何救不了信心? 11月,美国新增非农就业6.4万人,高于市场此前预期的4.5万人。 但问题在于:这点增长,根本不足以抵消此前的流失。 1. 10月:净减少10.5万个岗位 2. 8月、6月:同样出现岗位流失 3. 就业"净回报率"明显 ...
恒指小幅低开 天域半导体破发
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-05 02:52
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 港股速报 | 恒指小幅低开 天域半导体破发 每经编辑|袁东 12月5日,恒生指数、恒生科技指数均小幅低开。 恒生科技指数报5565点,下跌0.88%。 板块方面,稀土板块、有色板块、旅游板块等涨幅靠前。金力永磁、江西铜业股份涨超3%。电子商务、区块链等板块跌幅 靠前,国美零售下跌超6%,网易-S下跌超2%。 新股方面,今日上市的两只股票均较发售价低开。截至发稿,遇见小面(HK02408)报每股5.28港元,较发售价下跌约 25%;天域半导体(HK02658)报每股44.6港元,下跌约23%。 后市展望: 瑞银发表研究报告,对澳门博彩业明年前景看法正面,预期需求将保持强劲,丰富的旅游产品、市场推广增加及客户基础 更多元化均将支持行业增长,特别看好高端需求,将今明两年澳门博彩总收入增长预测由8%及5%,提升至9%及6%,并预 期博彩运营商EBITDA可增长约1%及7%。 截至发稿,恒生指数报25800点,下跌0.54%。 封面图片来源:图片来源:每日经济新闻 资料图 责任编辑:高佳 国信证券也指出,港股短线的调整为2026年赢得空间。美国的 ...
港股早盘低开 乐摩科技上市首日涨超60%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-03 02:22
Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on December 3, with the Hang Seng Index falling to 25,980.89 points, down 114.16 points, a decline of 0.44% [1][9] - The Hang Seng Technology Index reported a decrease to 5,595.53 points, down 28.51 points, a decline of 0.51% [3][13] New Listings - Two new stocks were listed on the same day: - LeMo Technology (HK02539) opened over 60% higher, later increasing to a peak of 72.3 HKD, representing a 70% rise. The company operates shared massage equipment in high-traffic public areas across China [5][11] - Jinyan Kaolin New Materials (HK02693) opened 27.4% higher, reaching a maximum of 9.8 HKD. The company specializes in the mining, processing, and sales of coal series kaolin, being a large-scale and standardized producer in China [5][11] Sector Performance - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Technology Index, NetEase fell over 2%, while Alibaba and Bilibili dropped over 1%. Automotive stocks continued to decline, with NIO and XPeng down over 3%, BYD down over 1%, and Li Auto showing a slight rebound [5][11] Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the market style is expected to be balanced from December to January, with large-cap, low-valuation, and cyclical styles likely to dominate. Consumer sectors such as home appliances, food and beverage, textiles, and social services are anticipated to perform well during this period due to expectations of increased growth policies ahead of the new year [12] - Guosen Securities highlighted the impact of the "K-shaped economy" in the U.S. and the necessity of addressing rising unemployment rates, suggesting that a rate cut in December is essential. The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken in early 2026, which would benefit the valuation recovery of emerging markets [6][12]