证券研究报告 2025/6/24 1 行业策略：聚焦供需优化与末端赋能，布局航空及直营快递。2025H1交运各板块表现分化，关税扰动"抢出口" 集运港口阶段性高景气，快递件量高增长但价格竞争仍未结束，上游企业经营承压影响ToB物流，出行链航空铁路 出行量继续增长。2025H2我们推荐交运板块两条投资主线：1、供给侧增长受限，建议关注供需持续优化的航空板 块。2、末端持续赋能，建议关注直营快递板块。 推荐组合：中国国航H+A、南方航空H+A 、春秋航空、吉祥航空、顺丰控股。 航空：供给侧增长受限，建议关注供需持续优化的航空板块。2025年以来行业供需继续优化，预计旺季产能利用 率将继续超2019年。（1）供给端：当前存量订单较少，且波音、空客产能仍未恢复，导致订单积压（波音6500+ 架、空客8600+架），影响未来新订单交付，预计未来飞机引进速度仍为低个位数，叠加PW1100发动机维修问题， 有效运力进一步下降。（2）需求端：我国经济保持着平稳发展态势，叠加各项入境签证政策优化将推动国际线旅 客大幅增长，预计民航旅客量将保持高个位数增长。供需拐点有望于年内实现，预计2025年供给同比增长3%，累 计较2019 ...

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see supply-side growth constraints, with a recommendation to focus on the continuously optimizing supply-demand dynamics [2] - As of 2025, the industry is projected to maintain high single-digit growth in passenger volume, driven by stable economic development and improved visa policies [2] - Supply is limited due to a low number of existing orders and ongoing production issues at Boeing and Airbus, leading to a backlog of over 6,500 and 8,600 aircraft respectively [2] - Demand is anticipated to grow by 7% year-on-year in 2025, with capacity utilization nearing 2019 levels, which will likely lead to increased ticket prices and airline profitability [2] Group 2: Logistics Sector - The logistics sector is focusing on empowering the last-mile delivery, with a recommendation to pay attention to the direct express delivery segment [3] - The application of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to reduce costs and improve efficiency in last-mile delivery, benefiting direct express delivery companies [3] - SF Express is highlighted as a key player in the direct express delivery market, holding a 64% market share in the time-sensitive segment, targeting mid-to-high-end customers to avoid price competition [3] - The company is expected to achieve higher-than-industry volume growth through operational model transformation and resource optimization, supported by decreasing capital expenditures and increasing cash flow [3]