商业化要素齐备，无人物流时代开启 ——无人物流车跟踪报告 2025年7月11日 分析师：倪昱婧，CFA（执业证书编号：S0930515090002） 分析师：邢萍（执业证书编号：S0930525050001） 核心观点 风险提示：无人物流车量产进展不及预期、物流需求减少、政策与市场风险。 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 1 无人物流车当前以中短途运输为主：当前无人物流车主要应用于中短距离的支线运输/末端配送，我 们判断，1）无人物流车可有效解决偏远地区/高峰时段用工短缺问题，配送效率高+应用范围广；2） 无人物流车的核心应用场景为城市配送（快递/外卖/零售/商超等），或有望重构城市配送产业生态。 商业化落地要素齐全，无人物流车有望率先放量：我们判断，无人物流车在政策/技术/成本三方面或 均已具备相对成熟条件，有望在L4级自动驾驶商业化场景中率先实现大规模放量：1）政策：一方面 无人物流车支持政策范围已涵盖二三线城市、且有明确的安全/责任规定，另一方面，2024年至今国 内各地加速发放无人物流车上路牌照；2）技术：与其他L4级自动驾驶场景相比，无人物流车主要针 对低速+固定路线场景，算法+算力要求均相应降低；3） ...

Summary of Logistics Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The logistics sector can be categorized into three types of companies: stable profit companies (e.g., SF Express), high-growth companies (e.g., Jitu), and operational improvement companies (e.g., Aneng Logistics) based on their self-owned cash flow ratio and capital expenditure growth rate [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **SF Express** has shifted its strategy from diversification to focusing on the mid-to-high-end market, optimizing its cost structure and undergoing organizational changes, which has significantly improved its free cash flow and profitability. The company is expected to benefit from growth in the mid-to-high-end market and overseas resource integration [1][5][6]. - The **e-commerce express delivery industry** is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a reshuffling of market shares among leading companies. Despite short-term performance pressures, companies like ZTO and YTO are seen as having bottom-fishing value, while Jitu shows strong growth potential in emerging markets [1][7]. - **Aneng Logistics** has achieved counter-cyclical growth in the road freight market by focusing on high-profit small parcel business and internal management improvements. It is expected to achieve around 20% growth in Q2 2025 and for the full year, with mid-term dividend expectations acting as a catalyst for stock price [1][8][9]. - **Jitu** is rapidly expanding in Southeast Asia and South America, leveraging its cost-reduction experiences from the Chinese market. It is projected to capture over 30% market share in Southeast Asia by 2025 [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - The logistics sector is seeing a rise in new technology applications, including low-speed unmanned logistics vehicles, L2 level intelligent auxiliary driving trucks, unmanned stations, and delivery lockers, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3][11]. - The concentration of logistics in China and the decline in capital expenditure are providing strong cash flow support for the industry, while new technology applications are expected to drive growth [3][11]. - The investment strategy for 2025 focuses on companies with strong free cash flow and those leveraging new technologies for growth opportunities [2][10]. Conclusion - The logistics industry is poised for growth with a clear differentiation among companies based on their operational strategies and market positioning. Investors are encouraged to focus on stable profit companies, high-growth companies in emerging markets, and those showing operational improvements to capitalize on the evolving landscape [1][10].

"你好，欢迎来到龙岗！"线上的手语老师通过音书政务无障碍系统，将语音实时转化为手语画面，听障 人士得以"读懂"问候。 龙岗区企业音书科技研发的音书政务无障碍系统，依托实时在线翻译功能，通过设备一键连接专业手语 老师，以视频通话的形式实现语音与手语的即时转换，为赛事咨询、流程指引等场景提供高效无障碍沟 通服务。 7月1日至8日，残特奥会自行车赛在深圳龙岗举行。 "本届残特奥会将以办赛为契机，进一步推动科技助残事业发展。"残特奥会自行车竞赛委员会观众服务 处副处长、龙岗区残疾人服务中心主任陈汝婷介绍。 据了解，龙岗区主要从"科技助残"与"人文关怀"两个维度入手，联合了38家科技企业，精选手语翻译 器、导盲兔AI眼镜等108项优质产品，覆盖运动保障、生活服务、无障碍出行等各类场景。 这一次残奥会是检验龙岗科技助残成果的"超级舞台"，其谋局并不止于本次赛事，更在为之后即将到来 的十五运会和残特奥会赛事积累赛事经验。 科技办赛让龙岗辖区内企业有了技术验证平台，灵锶智能的四足机器狗与鑫龙浩的轮式无人巡逻车形成 的"地面防线"，配合公安部门开展24小时无死角巡逻巡查。 这些来自实战场景的运行参数，有助于企业进一步优化算法， ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Insights - The easing of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a decline in oil tanker rates, with the VLCC market shifting from geopolitical influences to supply-demand fundamentals [3][14] - The establishment of the General Aviation and Low Altitude Economy Working Group by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) aims to enhance the development of low-altitude economy and general aviation [3][16] - The price of unmanned logistics vehicles has dropped to around 20,000 yuan, contributing to a 5.3% year-on-year growth in national social logistics total in the first five months of 2025 [3][22] Industry Highlights - The VLCC market sentiment has transitioned to supply-demand fundamentals, with tanker rates under pressure due to increased competition among shipowners and no significant rise in cargo volumes [3][14] - As of July 4, 2025, the shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe increased by 3.5% to 2,101 USD/TEU, while rates to the US West and East coasts decreased by 19.0% and 12.6%, respectively [3][15] - In the first half of 2025, 117 new international air cargo routes were opened in China, with over 233 round-trip flights added weekly [3][16][18] - The logistics sector has seen a total of 138.7 trillion yuan in social logistics, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year increase, with a slight deceleration in growth compared to previous months [3][24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - In June 2025, domestic cargo flights increased by 9.42% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 32.87% [26][33] - The express delivery sector experienced a 17.20% year-on-year increase in business volume in May 2025, with total express business volume reaching 173.2 billion pieces [56][58] - The national port cargo throughput reached 7.345 billion tons in the first five months of 2025, marking a 3.8% year-on-year growth [52]

无人物流车：L4 级自动驾驶率先落地场景 20250707 摘要 无人物流车行业正处于技术成熟和商业化拐点，2024 年初显增长势头， 极致家等企业即将上市，带动易控智驾、九十智能等软件算法公司在资 本市场表现。 城配物流是 L4 级自动驾驶商业化先锋领域，固定路线占比 85%，易于 实现 L4 级自动驾驶。5 立方无人物流车空载里程 150 公里，满足需求， 且成本因乘用车自动驾驶套件下降而大幅降低。 L4 级自动驾驶在城配物流中应用效果显著，人车比达 1:100，安全员托 管少，保险费大幅下降（从 2000 元/年降至 400 元），表明技术可行性 及应用价值。 无人物流车通过减少司机薪酬和配送成本，实现显著成本下降。新石器 在无锡中通网点实现约 59%的成本下降。90 的 Z5 车型裸车售价约为 5 万元，更易被市场接受。 政策法规积极推动无人物流车发展，中央政府降低物流成本，各地开放 路权。新石器和 90 分别获得超过 200 个城市的路权。国家邮政局也明 确提出深化人工智能技术应用。 城配物流是目前 L4 级自动驾驶最先实现商业化的重要领域之一。城配物流指的 是城市内部 10 至 100 公里范围内 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of free cash flow as a key indicator of business quality and operational efficiency in the logistics industry, particularly during the transition to high-quality economic development [4][21] - Three main investment opportunities are identified: stable profitability from companies with strong competitive barriers, high growth potential in Southeast Asia's express delivery market, and operational improvements in companies facing weak demand [4][21] Group 1: Free Cash Flow and Investment Opportunities - Free cash flow improvement is driven by three scenarios: stable profitability from companies with solid market positions, high demand in niche markets, and operational enhancements in response to industry challenges [7][21] - SF Express has focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements since 2021, leading to continuous free cash flow enhancement and a solid foundation for shareholder returns [9][70] - J&T Express is positioned to leverage its leading advantage in Southeast Asia, potentially achieving simultaneous growth in market share and profitability [10][75] Group 2: Technological Advancements in Logistics - The accelerated adoption of new technologies in logistics is expected to reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency, thereby strengthening business resilience and improving free cash flow [8][28] - Key technological breakthroughs include the use of low-speed unmanned logistics vehicles, smart heavy trucks, and AI-driven management systems, which collectively aim to optimize costs across various logistics segments [29][31] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The express delivery market is characterized by a high barrier to entry and a stable oligopolistic structure, with SF Express maintaining a competitive edge through strategic positioning in the high-end market [9][40] - The domestic express delivery sector is experiencing intensified competition, particularly as companies like Zhongtong adjust strategies to regain market share amidst declining average revenue per package [10][75] - The freight forwarding sector is witnessing increased concentration, with companies like Aneng Logistics optimizing their service offerings and management practices to enhance profitability [11][70]

"确定性"多点开花，业绩估值各有看点 [Table_Industry] 交通运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 | [Table_ReportType] | | --- | | 行业投资策略 | | [Table_StockAndRank] 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110001 邮 箱：huangan@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 陈依晗 交通运输行业助理 邮 箱：chenyihan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Ta ...

南都讯 深圳在无人配送领域取得关键进展，率先实现功能型无人物流车全市统一纳管与统筹运营。7月 3日，顺丰、新石器及美团两条无人物流线路在福田梅林片区应用试点。目前，全市运营无人车已超300 台，无人配送网络在核心城区进一步加密，标志着深圳正式迈入无人车全市域覆盖运营新阶段，为打造 高密度、高效率的城市自动配送生态注入新动能。 智慧场站升级赋能产业生态，"国企基建+民企技术"协同创新模式取得突破。三大公交集团联合顺丰、 美团等头部企业，将传统公交场站升级为智能物流枢纽。龙岗教苑场站计划建成集成充电维保、智能调 度等功能，无人车与无人机实现 "地面 + 空中" 配送衔接，预计物流配送效率将提升30%。西部公汽新 玉路场站首创自用、支撑、全生态服务等多元合作模式，为物流企业提供从车辆采购到运营的全链条支 持，推动公交角色从无人车"应用者"向现代物流网络"参与者"和"提供者"转变。巴士集团启动福田全域 运营规划，西丽片区全力推进自动配送线路闭环，形成"技术研发-场景落地-商业化运营"的全周期服务 能力。 此次深圳无人车市域运营体系的初步构建取得了显著阶段性成果： 服务覆盖面积扩大至全市域，建成 了全国首个"公交体系+ ...

2025年以来，无人物流车价格下探、频获资本青睐，作为自动驾驶市场中前景广阔、有机会率先规模化 落地的应用场景，引起了广泛关注。 低速无人驾驶产业联盟秘书长李进科表示，在政策、资本、市场利好下，低速无人驾驶产业正迈向高质 量发展的新阶段，产业生态逐步呈现出多元化、技术协同深化、场景商业化加速等显著特征。对于正在 加速拓展市场的头部企业而言，针对细分场景的"破局"与"攻坚"变得尤为重要。 ● 本报记者 王婧涵 价格持续下探 2025年以来，无人物流车价格持续下探。 5月，九识智能发布E系列平台及首款战略车型E6，载重能力达500kg，产品以不到2万元的定价上市， 引发市场强烈反响。 随后，新石器无人车发布优惠促销海报，装载容积6m3、载重1000kg、续航里程200km的X无人物流车 型，首付888元起。 6月18日，菜鸟推出新款平价无人车菜鸟GT-Lite并同步启动预售，该款车型定价2.18万元，叠加限时优 惠的售价为1.68万元。 多款"白菜价"的无人物流车让市场意识到，属于低速无人驾驶行业的时代正加速到来。 新战略低速无人驾驶产业研究所数据显示，2024年中国低速无人驾驶行业销售规模已达123亿元，同比 ...

2025年6月27日，"全球Robotaxi第一股"文远知行获得广州市黄埔区首批无人驾驶装备道路测试牌照， 旗下无人驾驶物流车Robovan W5(下称"W5无人物流车")已在黄埔区全域开启路测。同时，文远知行W5 无人物流车摘得"穗S·F0001试"车牌，是广州黄埔第一台获批上路的无人物流车。目前，文远知行是黄 埔区首家也是唯一一家"持牌企业"。 当前，全球智慧物流正迎来高速发展期。预计未来三年全球无人物流车市场容量将突破千亿美元，到 2030 年，将增长至 7840 亿美元，新的万亿蓝海正在快速孕育。而文远知行早已启动海外布局，目前已 在中、美、法、新加坡、阿联酋五地获得牌照，在全球 10 个国家 30 多个城市开展无人驾驶研发、测试 及运营，并与雷诺集团、Uber 等多个国际巨头在无人驾驶领域展开密切合作。其海外布局成效显著， 有望在全球市场占据更大份额。 随着智能网联政策红利持续释放，文远知行有希望凭借在无人驾驶领域的技术领先优势和深厚运营积 淀，加速推进无人物流车的商业化进程。作为自动驾驶赛道的领军者，文远知行正以技术迭代与场景落 地的双重驱动，在智慧物流新蓝海中扬起领航风帆，其商业化蓝图的加速兑现 ...