二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国债期货周报 | | | 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ 国债期货合约周度回暖。 ◼ 上周我们认为"周末中美贸易战阶段性升温，周一国债期货或有全线高开"，国债行情在底部反 复震荡中有所回暖。 ◼ 维持中期大方向看震荡偏空的观点。同时认为本轮回暖空间有限。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 上周我们认为"周末中美贸易战阶段性升温，周一国债期货或有全线高开"，国债行情在底部反复震 荡中有所回暖，同时机构周度净多头持仓有所增长。短端合约目前处于价格稳固状态，长端合约波动较 大。通胀同比降幅持续收窄。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 市场特征方面，国债期货市场呈现长端偏强、短端承压的分化特征，收益率曲线形态趋于平坦化。短 端品种（2 年期、5 年期）成交活跃度下降，而长端品种（10 年期、30 年期）持仓量增加。政策博弈、资 金面波动及股债跷跷板效应是核心驱动因素，整体形态因此而倾向于复杂化。 图 1：市场特征跟踪 资料来源：Wind，米筐、森普、 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report [1] - Core view: Despite the mediocre macro - data in the off - season, the stock market remains strong, treasury bond futures continue to correct, and the curve turns steeper. The net long positions of private funds increased slightly on a weekly basis, while those of wealth management subsidiaries and foreign investors decreased significantly. Maintain the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be volatile and bearish [4] Group 2: Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Market performance: Treasury bond futures contracts declined this week, and the curve steepened significantly. The market showed a differentiated pattern with increased volatility at the long - end and continued resilience at the short - end. Policy expectations and the game of the capital market dominated market sentiment [5][7] - Short - end market: Supported by the capital market, it fluctuated within a narrow range. The 2 - year contract (TS2509) had a small decline this week. The capital market was loose, with DR001/DR007 interest rates at a low level, and the central bank continued net investment to stabilize liquidity [7] - Long - end market: Affected by policy games, the volatility increased. The yield curve showed alternating "flattening - steepening" characteristics [7] Group 3: Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - There is relevant content about liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific details are provided in the given text [9] Group 4: Seat Analysis - Daily change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 1.41%; foreign investors increased by 1.66%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.94% - Weekly change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 3.84%; foreign investors decreased by 24.11%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 27.72% [11]