信念不是非黑即白，而是有程度的。贝叶斯主义提供了一套用概率推理的工具包。本文通过医学测试、NBA投篮、大学录取等生活化案例， 教你如何在不确定性面前做出更好的决策。无论你是在为孩子规划教育投资，还是在做重要的职业选择，贝叶斯思维都能帮你更好地让观点与 证据相称。 别人问你相信什么。相信鬼神吗？相信全球变暖吗？相信爱吗？人们说，你的信念决定了你是谁，也决定了你该做什么：「做你认为正确的事。」 这些问题要求非黑即白的答案。但生活远不是这样。对于很多重要问题，三个选项都不够。现在，我正在研究孩子的教育规划，学校的取决于很多变量： 他们能进什么学校？什么学校适合他们？如果我们换种方式投资，未来两年、五年、十年会有什么回报？ 假设有人试图帮我：「很简单。你相信你大女儿会被 xx 大学录取吗？」我不知道该怎么回答。我不相信她一定会被录取，也不相信她一定不会。我觉得 概率略高于 50%，但远谈不上确定。 过去几十年有个重要的概念突破：信念是有程度的。我们不只是「相信」或「不相信」某事。我们的大部分思考和决策，都由不同程度的信心驱动。这些 信心程度可以用概率衡量，从 0 到 100%。当我为孩子的教育投资时，只问「我相信股票 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the long-term centrality of the yield spread between short and long-term bonds, indicating that the net financing ratio of credit bonds is a significant indicator of changes in the yield spread central [4][9][25] - The report identifies that the current net financing level of credit bonds is around 30%, suggesting that the 10-1Y yield spread may gradually rise to a range of 50-70 basis points [4][25] - The report discusses the impact of various factors on the yield spread fluctuations, categorizing them into monetary policy cycles, external shocks, and institutional behaviors, with a focus on the 10-1Y yield spread as a primary reference [4][79] Group 2 - The report introduces a "conditional probability" perspective for designing a timing strategy for the 10-1Y yield spread, utilizing 21 factor indicators across various dimensions such as funding conditions and institutional behavior [6][85] - Historical backtesting shows that since 2021, the weekly timing strategy has achieved a win rate of around 60%, indicating its effectiveness compared to conventional mean-reversion strategies [6][85] - The report highlights that the yield spread's fluctuations generally do not exceed 25 basis points under normal conditions, suggesting that simplistic historical upper and lower bounds may lead to misestimations in strategy design [4][79] Group 3 - The report outlines the relationship between the centrality of the yield spread and the net financing ratio of credit bonds, indicating that the latter has a leading role in predicting changes in the yield spread [20][25] - It details the historical phases of credit bond financing over the past 20 years, illustrating how changes in the net financing ratio correlate with shifts in the yield spread central [20][25] - The report notes that the yield spread may experience temporary deviations from the net financing ratio during exceptional circumstances, reflecting the influence of market dynamics [20][25] Group 4 - The report discusses the evolving dynamics of the ultra-long yield spread (30-10Y), emphasizing that institutional behaviors and the demand for long-duration assets are becoming increasingly significant [29][32] - It identifies that the trading volume of long-term bonds has increased, leading to a shift in the influence of the 30-year bond on the yield spread, indicating a growing demand for long-duration strategies [29][32] - The report suggests that the seasonal patterns of insurance premium income significantly impact the allocation of long-term bonds, affecting the ultra-long yield spread [33][41]