Core Insights - The latest CPI data indicates that inflation remains a persistent issue for American households, with the December CPI rising 2.7% year-over-year, consistent with November and in line with market expectations [2] - Despite a resilient overall economy and stable job market, the rising cost of living continues to exert pressure on consumers, making CPI a crucial indicator for policymakers, investors, and families [2] - The December CPI reflects a complex situation of cooling demand and supply constraints, highlighting the challenges in managing inflation [2] CPI Breakdown - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% year-over-year in December, lower than the market forecast of 2.7%, and only rose 0.2% month-over-month, also below expectations [3] - Food prices saw a significant increase, with December food prices rising 3.1% year-over-year, up from 2.6% in November, marking a multi-month high [4] Consumer Impact - The data suggests that while overall CPI remains stable, fluctuations in essential goods prices significantly affect consumer confidence [5] - The cumulative effect of rising prices continues to exert long-term pressure on household finances, despite CPI remaining below 3% throughout 2025 [5][6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times at the end of 2025 to address a cooling labor market, with Chairman Powell indicating that labor market risks outweigh inflation rebound risks [7] - The persistent CPI levels above the Fed's 2% target limit the scope for policy adjustments, with market participants heavily relying on CPI to gauge interest rate trajectories [7][8] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, CPI will continue to be a key variable influencing policy and market direction, with inflation remaining sticky and a return to the 2% target expected to take time [10]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The downside of lead may be relatively limited [1] 2. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 0.59% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 33,602 lots, an increase of 2,046 lots, and the trading volume of LME lead was 6,877 lots, an increase of 500 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 52,667 lots, an increase of 223 lots, and the open interest of LME lead was 142,147 lots, a decrease of 2,744 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -32.78 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.84 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 58,768 tons, an increase of 3,638 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, an increase of 10,125 tons [1] 3. News - The US core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for five consecutive months. The "New Fed Wire" said that the June CPI data would not change the Fed's decision [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]