最新公布的 CPI 数据再次印证了许多美国家庭在 2025 年的切身感受：通胀虽已远离疫情期间的高点，但价格压力依然挥之不去。根据 CBS News 报道，美 国 12 月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%，与 11 月持平，也基本符合市场预期。 这一 CPI 读数为 2025 年画下句点。尽管整体经济表现出一定韧性，就业市场保持稳定，但持续上涨的生活成本仍对消费者形成明显挤压。对政策制定者、 投资者以及普通家庭而言，CPI 依旧是衡量经济健康状况的关键指标。 原因之一在于零售商吸收了部分成本压力，从而抑制了 CPI 的进一步上行。这也反映出 CPI 并非单一政策变量的直接结果，而是多方力量博弈后的综合体 现。 CPI 用于衡量一篮子常见消费品和服务价格的变化，包括食品、住房、服装与交通等。12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，略高于 FactSet 调查中经济学家预计的 2.6%。 根据 CBS News，这一结果表明，通胀在年末并未进一步缓解，而是进入相对"黏性"的阶段。价格上涨并非全面扩散，而是集中在部分核心消费领域，使得 CPI 所反映的通胀体验因人而异。 从宏观角度来看，12 月 CPI 反 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The downside of lead may be relatively limited [1] 2. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 0.59% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 33,602 lots, an increase of 2,046 lots, and the trading volume of LME lead was 6,877 lots, an increase of 500 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 52,667 lots, an increase of 223 lots, and the open interest of LME lead was 142,147 lots, a decrease of 2,744 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -32.78 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.84 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 58,768 tons, an increase of 3,638 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons, an increase of 10,125 tons [1] 3. News - The US core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for five consecutive months. The "New Fed Wire" said that the June CPI data would not change the Fed's decision [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]