以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 一、看懂市场"体温"：全A估值仪表盘 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 在过去的几个月里，沉寂多年之后的市场，迎来了结构性牛市，以芯片、AI、算力等为代表的硬科技领域实现了广泛上涨，很多指数的估值温度不 断上升。 今天，我们一起重新仔细回顾估值表的使用方式，更好地应对市场的不同周期。 对新手来说，可以把全市场温度理解成市场的"体温表"。温度高，说明市场热；温度低，说明市场冷。 当低于20度时，往往是我们定投的好时机；而当高于60度时，意味着市场逐步进入偏热，机会开始分化，需要提高警惕。 我们一起看最新一期的全市场估值温度... 1）全市场温度 代表了当下A股市场的温度高低，0度最低、100度最高， 当下为59.86度，中性偏热 。该指标采用代表全市场的沪深全A的估值，计算方式为： （指数市盈率百 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of a stable valuation system for investors to navigate market fluctuations and make informed decisions, especially during periods of market uncertainty [3][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation Insights - On September 12, 2024, the overall market PB reached a historical low, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - The current valuation of the A-share market is at 42.36°C, which is considered a normal valuation stage, suggesting that while it is not overly expensive, the safety margin is lower than before [15][23]. - The article emphasizes that opportunities often arise during periods of extreme pessimism, as seen in past market conditions [9][10]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The "All Market Temperature" is calculated using a weighted average of PE and PB ratios, with the current temperature indicating a normal valuation phase [15]. - The Graham Index, which reflects the potential return of equity markets relative to risk-free rates, has been adjusted to lower its weight due to recent distortions caused by declining interest rates [16]. - The stock-bond yield spread, currently at 3.32%, indicates that the equity market's earnings yield is approximately double the risk-free rate, which has been a driving force behind recent market rallies [23]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advises against excessive greed or chasing high returns, as current valuations suggest a normal range with insufficient safety margins for new investments [25]. - It highlights the importance of a valuation judgment as a foundational element for long-term investment strategies, helping investors maintain confidence during market uncertainties [26].