证券研究报告：证券Ⅱ|行业周报 发布时间：2026-01-05 行业投资评级 中性|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 6932.99 | | 52 周最高 | 7730.11 | | 52 周最低 | 5627.38 | 行业相对指数表现 -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王泽军 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110003 Email:wangzejun@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《20251229-流动性宽松或驱动业务全 面回暖》 - 2025.12.29 证券行业报告（2025.12.29-2025.12.31） 2026 头部券商FICC 非方向性获利能力 或将凸显重要性 ⚫ 投资要点 2025 年末股债利差收官于 4.90%，预计 26 年利差缺乏单边扩张 或收敛的强大动力，将在中性区间内反复波动，股票相对性价比不突 出或将压缩自营盘方向性收益。债券 ...

Market Overview - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on the financial sector showing signs of recovery, particularly with major indices rebounding above key levels [1][39] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the market is 22.92 times, with a significant stock-bond yield spread of 2.52%, indicating favorable conditions for equity investments [4][42] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors last week included non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and national defense and military industry, while media entertainment, household goods, and real estate saw declines [14][52] - The aerospace and Fujian sectors demonstrated sustained performance, while other sectors experienced rotation, indicating increased operational difficulty in the short term [2][40] Investment Strategies - Short-term strategies should focus on sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and commercial aerospace, with a recommendation to maintain trading discipline [2][40] - The long-term outlook remains bullish, with the expectation of a gradual recovery in the market, particularly in sectors with structural opportunities like consumer electronics and AI [9][47] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is currently experiencing low volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.85%, indicating a stable interest rate environment [11][49] - The yield curve is expected to remain stable unless influenced by significant policy changes or international events [11][49] Emerging Industry Opportunities - The marine economy is gaining attention, with government reports emphasizing the development of deep-sea technology, which is expected to drive growth in related sectors [16][19] - Solid-state batteries are projected to see significant advancements, with energy density potentially exceeding 500Wh/kg, positioning them as a key technology in the future of energy storage [23][28] - The humanoid robotics sector is poised for growth, with increasing demand expected to exceed 100 million units domestically, creating substantial market opportunities for related components [32][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern. Although the economic fundamentals show structural improvement, the short - term repair market is insufficient to boost market confidence. The long - term positive trend remains unchanged, but valuation pressure and external uncertainties will restrict the upward space of the index. Investors should be patient and wait for clearer market signals [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In November, the stock index futures market showed an overall volatile and corrective trend, with all major contracts recording monthly declines. Among them, the CSI 500 index futures had the most significant adjustment, followed by the SSE 300 index futures, while the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 index futures were relatively resilient. Specific data for major futures contracts on November 28th: SSE 300 futures (IF) closed at 4,505.8 with a monthly decline of 2.71% (125.6); SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2,963.2 with a monthly decline of 1.72% (52.0); CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 6,974.2 with a monthly decline of 3.70% (- 268.2); CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7,260.8 with a monthly decline of 1.46% (- 107.4) [5]. - In November, all bond futures declined. On November 28th, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.490 with a monthly decline of 1.60% (- 1.86); the 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.940 with a monthly decline of 0.43% (- 0.465); the 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.745 with a monthly decline of 0.32% (- 0.245); the 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.378 with a monthly decline of 0.12% (- 0.120) [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business levels [7]. - In November, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - In November, the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [12]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of November 28th, the PE of the SSE 300 index was 13.94 times, the percentile was 80.2%, and the PB was 1.45 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.83 times, the percentile was 88.43%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 32.03 times, the percentile was 76.47%, and the PB was 2.19 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 46.44 times, the percentile was 73.33%, and the PB was 2.44 times [15]. 3.4 Other Data - Stock - bond spread: There are two calculation formulas. One is (1/Index static P/E ratio) - 10 - year Treasury bond yield, and the other is 10 - year Treasury bond yield - Index static dividend yield [28]. - China - Buffett indicator: On November 28, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 88.25%. The current "total market capitalization/GDP" was at the 87.44% percentile in historical data and the 91.31% percentile in the past 10 - year data [32]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - Macroeconomically, the official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The high - tech manufacturing PMI has been in the expansion range for 10 consecutive months, indicating continuous economic structural transformation. The non - manufacturing business activity index declined, with the construction industry showing obvious improvement in business levels and significantly improved market expectations [34]. - In terms of valuation, although the market has adjusted, the valuation percentiles of major indices are still at relatively high historical levels. The ratio of total market capitalization to GDP remains high, indicating that the overall market valuation pressure still exists [34]. 3.6 Operation Suggestions - Adopt a neutral approach, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely monitor subsequent economic data and policy trends. For unilateral trading, consider bottom - fishing but beware of valuation risks; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, consider covered strategies to increase returns [35][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the stock index futures market showed a structural differentiation trend. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term. The economic fundamentals are resilient, and the non - manufacturing sector is expanding, with generally optimistic corporate expectations. However, manufacturing slowdown, external uncertainties, and high valuation levels may affect market confidence and limit the upside space of the index [28][29] - It is recommended to maintain a neutral mindset, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely track subsequent economic data and policy trends [30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: In October, A - share major indices showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85% and had a 6 - month consecutive positive line, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell by over 1%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 futures (IF) was basically flat, the CSI 500 futures (IC) and CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed slightly lower, and the SSE 50 futures (IH) performed outstandingly [5] - **Bond Futures**: In October, all bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year bond futures had monthly increases of 2.44%, 0.77%, 0.41%, and 0.17% respectively [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, entering the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stable corporate production and business activities [7][9][12] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, the PE and PB of major indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, along with their percentile positions, showed that the overall market valuation attractiveness was limited [13] - The "total market capitalization/GDP" ratio's percentile in historical data was close to 90%, indicating that the overall market valuation pressure still existed [26][28] 4. Other Data - **Stock - Bond Yield Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread, using the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the dividend yield respectively [21] - **China - Buffett Indicator**: The "total market capitalization/GDP" ratio was 89.80% on November 31, 2025, with a high percentile in historical data, suggesting relatively high market valuation [26] 5. Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term. Positive factors include economic resilience, non - manufacturing expansion, and positive policy signals. Negative factors include manufacturing slowdown, external uncertainties, and high valuation levels [28][29] 6. Operation Suggestions - **Overall Strategy**: Maintain a neutral mindset, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely track economic data and policy trends [30] - **Specific Operations**: For single - side trading, buy on dips but beware of valuation risks; for arbitrage, participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy and pay attention to style - switching signals; for options, use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks [31]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent structural bull market in sectors like chips, AI, and computing power, leading to rising valuations across various indices [4]. Market Temperature Analysis - The current market temperature is at 59.86 degrees, indicating a neutral to slightly hot market, which is higher than the temperatures during the bull markets of 2015 and 2021 [10][12]. - A market temperature below 20 degrees is considered a good time for dollar-cost averaging, while above 60 degrees indicates a hot market where opportunities become more selective [7][10]. Valuation Indicators - The stock-bond yield spread is currently at 2.59%, which is within a reasonable range, suggesting that equity assets have a higher value proposition compared to bonds [15]. - The Graham index, which measures the price-to-earnings ratio against the risk-free rate, is at 2.394, indicating a high equity market attractiveness due to low bond yields [19][20]. - The Buffett index, representing the market's total capitalization relative to GDP, is at 97.89%, indicating a high level of market capitalization compared to economic output [22]. Index Temperature Overview - The article provides a detailed analysis of various indices, including core broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, with their respective temperatures and valuation metrics [26][27]. - Most major broad-based indices are currently in a normal valuation range, with some small-cap indices entering a slightly high valuation phase [28]. Sector and Strategy Indices - The article highlights the importance of dividend indices as a defensive strategy, with several indices showing lower temperatures, indicating potential investment opportunities [38][39]. - It also discusses the characteristics of various sector indices, emphasizing the need for careful selection, especially for new investors [47][49]. Emerging and Cyclical Industries - New and cyclical industries are noted as challenging areas for investment, often subject to volatility and requiring strong industry insight [50][51]. - The article advises against early involvement in emerging and cyclical industry indices for most new investors [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing valuation temperature of major indices in the A-share market, highlighting the downward shift in valuation centrality and its implications for investment strategies [4][9]. Group 1: Historical Market Valuation Temperature - The article uses the CSI All Share Index to represent the overall market situation, as it encompasses nearly all A-share listed companies [6]. - The valuation temperature is calculated as the average of PE and PB percentile rankings, utilizing historical data to cover extreme market conditions [7]. - Historical valuation temperatures for the CSI All Share Index show peaks during previous bull markets: 87.57 in 2007, 54.98 in 2009, 58.89 in 2015, 56.30 in 2021, and currently at 55.73 [9][10]. Group 2: Valuation Temperature of Major Indices - The CSI 300 Index reached a peak temperature of 100 in 2007, currently standing at 46.47 [14]. - The CSI 500 Index peaked at 100 in 2007 and is currently at 52.86 [16]. - The ChiNext Index has fluctuated significantly, reaching 100 in 2010 and currently at 45.15 [20]. - The STAR 50 Index, established more recently, has a current temperature of 83.39, indicating a relatively high absolute valuation [22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Implications - The article notes that the current market temperature indicates a normal to slightly low level for large-cap stocks, while mid and small-cap stocks are performing closer to the overall market average [23]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding valuation temperature as a long-term indicator, suggesting that investors should calibrate their mindset using historical extremes while considering current temperatures for portfolio management [25]. - The article concludes with a note on the macroeconomic impact of bond yield fluctuations and their influence on market liquidity, anticipating potential interest rate changes in the near future [26].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market showed active trading last week with a convergence in the discount of index futures, indicating optimistic market expectations. In the short - term, the market may enter a high - level consolidation phase. Policy expectations and improved economic data support the market, but valuation pressures are emerging. Investors are advised to focus on market structural changes, seize sector rotation opportunities, and control positions to prevent short - term adjustment risks [28]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - On August 29, A - share major indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3857.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.99% to 12696.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% to 2890.13 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 27983 billion yuan, a decrease of 1725 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Battery, insurance, and other sectors led the gains, while education, semiconductor, etc. declined [5]. - Last week, domestic stock index futures strengthened. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were +3.01%, +1.73%, +3.09%, and +0.64% respectively [5]. - Last week, treasury bond futures rose. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.56%, 0.14%, 0.14%, and 0.10% respectively [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The CSRC held a symposium, emphasizing the consolidation of the capital market's recovery, promoting reform and opening - up, and advocating long - term, value, and rational investment [7]. - As of August 29, 5299 A - share companies disclosed their 2025 semi - annual reports, with 4085 companies having positive net profits, accounting for 77.09%. 643 companies had a year - on - year net profit growth rate of over 100% [7]. - From August 27 - 29, Chinese official visited the US to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations, emphasizing cooperation and dialogue [7]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations, with a net withdrawal of 4039 billion yuan. This week, 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 10000 billion yuan in 91 - day repurchase agreements will mature [8]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of August 29, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are presented. For example, the CSI 300 index has a PE of 14.15 times, a percentile of 86.86%, and a PB of 1.48 times [12]. - The report explains the concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond yield spread [23]. 3.4 China - Buffett Indicator On August 29, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 86.95%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 86.46%, and in the past 10 - year data was 90.36% [26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The market last week was characterized by active trading and a convergence in index futures discounts. In the short - term, the market may enter a high - level consolidation phase [28]. - Operation suggestions include: for single - side trading, buy on dips while being wary of valuation risks; for arbitrage, participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy and watch for style - switching signals; for options, use covered calls to increase returns or buy put options to hedge volatility risks [29].

Report Investment Rating No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a stage of game between policy expectations and fundamental reality, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the spread changes between index futures contracts to seize cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, while being vigilant against external market fluctuations and rapid style switching risks [30]. Summary by Directory 1. A - share Market Review - On August 22, the A - share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3800 points, reaching a ten - year high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.45% to 3825.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.07% to 12166.06 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.36% to 2682.55 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 8.59% to 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. 2. Bond Market - Last week, treasury bond futures rose collectively. The 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 1.05% to 115.980 yuan, the 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.52% to 107.660 yuan, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.28% to 105.370 yuan, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to 102.318 yuan [2]. 3. Domestic Stock Index Futures Market - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened collectively. The CSI 300 futures (IF) closed at 4394.0 on August 22, up 4.39% for the week; the SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2942.0, up 3.36%; the CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 6810.4, up 4.28%; the CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7348.6, up 3.70% [7]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - The State Council executive meeting pointed out that the policy of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in has achieved obvious results. It is necessary to strengthen policy support, release domestic demand potential, and stimulate sports consumption [8]. - From January to July, the number of newly established foreign - invested enterprises in China increased by 14.1% year - on - year, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 13.4%. The actual use of foreign capital in high - tech industries was 137.36 billion yuan, with significant growth in some sub - sectors [8]. - After Fed Chairman Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Fed and fully digested the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [9]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.3652 trillion yuan. It will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on August 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month [9]. 5. Valuation Analysis - As of August 15, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.73 times, the percentile was 80%, and the PB was 1.45 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.71 times, the percentile was 88.82%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 32.02 times, the percentile was 76.27%, and the PB was 2.17 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 44.56 times, the percentile was 70.39%, and the PB was 2.47 times [12]. - The report introduced two formulas for calculating the stock - bond spread [24]. 6. China - Buffett Indicator - On August 21, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 86.00%. The current "total market capitalization/GDP" was at the 85.11% percentile in historical data and the 88.43% percentile in the past 10 - year data [27]. 7. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the stock index futures market continued to rise in a volatile manner. Small and medium - cap varieties outperformed large - cap contracts. The market showed the characteristics of "strong index and differentiated stocks". The main indexes' valuation percentiles were at a relatively high level in history, and technical adjustment risks needed to be noted [30]. 8. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral trading: IF and IH still have long - term layout value; IM and IC are more representative of industrial structure upgrading directions but have higher volatility [31]. - Arbitrage: Cross - variety arbitrage needs to capture the rhythm of market style switching [31]. - Options: A covered call strategy can be considered to increase returns [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index futures continued to fluctuate upwards, but market differentiation intensified, showing the characteristic of "strong index, weak stocks". The core contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and economic reality. The market presents a game feature of "policy support" and "fundamental pressure", and it is necessary to focus on the matching degree between policy implementation efficiency and marginal improvement of economic data. Maintain optimism in the medium - long term, but be vigilant against short - term fluctuations caused by repeated expectations of peripheral liquidity [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On August 15, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.60%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.61%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the banking sector falling. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days, with a turnover of more than 2.2 trillion on that day, slightly lower than the previous trading day [1] - Last week, treasury bond futures rose collectively. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had respective price changes of - 1.48%, - 0.29%, - 0.15%, and - 0.02% [2] - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened collectively. The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures had weekly increases of 3.09%, 2.19%, 4.88%, and 5.21% respectively [7] Fundamental Analysis - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and by 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [8] - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. Various indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [8] - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The central bank will focus on the supply - side to promote consumption [9] - Last week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. It also carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, there will be 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [10] Valuation Analysis - As of August 15, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.42 times, 74.12%, and 1.42 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.55 times, 86.08%, and 1.28 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.95 times, 74.12%, and 2.09 times respectively; those of the CSI 1000 Index were 42.88 times, 69.8%, and 2.38 times respectively [14] - The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield, with two calculation formulas provided [26] China - Buffett Indicator - On August 14, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 81.59%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 78.56%, and in the last 10 - year data was 78.99% [29] Comprehensive Analysis - The consumer recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, but there are structural highlights in consumption. Industrial production is stable, and high - tech manufacturing continues to lead. Policy - wise, the loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged, but the rebound of US PPI may restrict the inflow of foreign capital. Domestic fiscal policy is still being implemented, and the impact of special treasury bonds on infrastructure may appear in the third quarter. The market volatility remains low, and investors expect limited short - term breakthroughs [31] Operation Recommendations - Unilateral: Control risks, buy on dips, and avoid chasing highs [32] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33] - Options: Consider the covered call strategy to increase returns [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market and domestic stock index futures market both experienced a collective correction. This week, stock index futures are expected to show a volatile and relatively stable trend, with upward movement limited by weak economic data and downward movement supported by policies [2][5][25]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - On August 1st, the three major A-share indexes slightly declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.24% to 2322.63 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 15984 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 3377 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Last week, the main contracts of domestic stock index futures all declined. The weekly decline rates of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures were -2.10%, -1.52%, -1.80%, and -0.95% respectively [5]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [6]. Fundamental Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission has established a regular communication and exchange mechanism with private enterprises, held 17 symposiums, and communicated face-to-face with nearly 80 private enterprises. It has also conducted more than 500 discussions with private enterprises through various means, and provincial, municipal, and county development and reform departments have held more than 20,000 private enterprise symposiums. The comprehensive service platform for private economic development has received more than 2400 problem requests since its launch more than half a year ago [7]. - The People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2025, stating that since 2025, it has strengthened situation analysis, prepared policy reserves, introduced a package of monetary policy measures, and effectively promoted various tasks [8]. - The Ministry of Finance conducted the first reissuance of the 2025 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (Phase III). The reissued bonds are 50-year fixed-rate interest-bearing bonds with a competitive tender face value of 35 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 2.10%. As of August 1st, 796 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been issued, reaching 61% of the annual issuance plan [8]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan. This week, 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [9]. Valuation Analysis - As of August 1st, the PE, PB, and their respective percentile points of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are provided [12]. - The concept and calculation formulas of the stock-bond yield spread are introduced [22]. China - Buffett Indicator - On July 31st, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 80.03%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 75.10%, and in the past 10 years' data, it was 73.51% [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern this week. The macro environment presents a game between "policy support" and "weak economic recovery." The extension of the 24% reciprocal tariff suspension period between China and the US has alleviated market concerns, but structural contradictions remain [25]. - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, indicating continued pressure on corporate profits. However, policy support continues, and consumer and manufacturing sectors may receive support [25]. - In terms of market style, funds may continue to rotate between defensive sectors and policy-driven sectors. The convergence of stock index futures discounts reflects a weakening of short-selling pressure, but the high proportion of net short positions in the IM contract means that the volatility risk of small and medium-cap stocks needs to be watched out for [25].