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华龙期货股指周报-20250825
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:30
研究报告 股指周报 上周 A 股市场评述 摘要: 【行情复盘】 8 月 22 日,A 股延续强势表现,沪指一举突破 3800 点,再创 十年新高。截止收盘,沪指涨 1.45%,收报 3825.76 点;深证成 指涨 2.07%,收报 12166.06 点;创业板指涨 3.36%,收报 2682.55 点;科创 50 指数涨 8.59%,收报 1247.86 点。行业板块涨多跌少, 半导体、电子化学品、证券、教育、计算机设备、软件开发板块 涨幅居前,燃气、化肥行业、石油行业、银行板块跌幅居前。沪 深两市成交额达到 25467 亿,较昨日放量 1227 亿。 【债券】 上周,国债期货集体上涨。具体如下: | | 主力合约名称 | 上周涨跌幅(%) | 上周收盘价(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 30 | 年期国债期货 | -1.05 | 115.980 | | 10 | 年期国债期货 | -0.52 | 107.660 | | 5 | 年期国债期货 | -0.28 | 105.370 | | 2 | 年期国债期货 | -0.06 | 102.318 | | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | ...
华龙期货股指周报-20250818
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index futures continued to fluctuate upwards, but market differentiation intensified, showing the characteristic of "strong index, weak stocks". The core contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and economic reality. The market presents a game feature of "policy support" and "fundamental pressure", and it is necessary to focus on the matching degree between policy implementation efficiency and marginal improvement of economic data. Maintain optimism in the medium - long term, but be vigilant against short - term fluctuations caused by repeated expectations of peripheral liquidity [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On August 15, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.60%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.61%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the banking sector falling. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days, with a turnover of more than 2.2 trillion on that day, slightly lower than the previous trading day [1] - Last week, treasury bond futures rose collectively. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had respective price changes of - 1.48%, - 0.29%, - 0.15%, and - 0.02% [2] - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened collectively. The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures had weekly increases of 3.09%, 2.19%, 4.88%, and 5.21% respectively [7] Fundamental Analysis - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and by 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [8] - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. Various indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [8] - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The central bank will focus on the supply - side to promote consumption [9] - Last week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. It also carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, there will be 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [10] Valuation Analysis - As of August 15, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.42 times, 74.12%, and 1.42 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.55 times, 86.08%, and 1.28 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.95 times, 74.12%, and 2.09 times respectively; those of the CSI 1000 Index were 42.88 times, 69.8%, and 2.38 times respectively [14] - The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield, with two calculation formulas provided [26] China - Buffett Indicator - On August 14, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 81.59%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 78.56%, and in the last 10 - year data was 78.99% [29] Comprehensive Analysis - The consumer recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, but there are structural highlights in consumption. Industrial production is stable, and high - tech manufacturing continues to lead. Policy - wise, the loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged, but the rebound of US PPI may restrict the inflow of foreign capital. Domestic fiscal policy is still being implemented, and the impact of special treasury bonds on infrastructure may appear in the third quarter. The market volatility remains low, and investors expect limited short - term breakthroughs [31] Operation Recommendations - Unilateral: Control risks, buy on dips, and avoid chasing highs [32] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33] - Options: Consider the covered call strategy to increase returns [34]
上周A股市场集体回调
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market and domestic stock index futures market both experienced a collective correction. This week, stock index futures are expected to show a volatile and relatively stable trend, with upward movement limited by weak economic data and downward movement supported by policies [2][5][25]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - On August 1st, the three major A-share indexes slightly declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.24% to 2322.63 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 15984 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 3377 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Last week, the main contracts of domestic stock index futures all declined. The weekly decline rates of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures were -2.10%, -1.52%, -1.80%, and -0.95% respectively [5]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [6]. Fundamental Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission has established a regular communication and exchange mechanism with private enterprises, held 17 symposiums, and communicated face-to-face with nearly 80 private enterprises. It has also conducted more than 500 discussions with private enterprises through various means, and provincial, municipal, and county development and reform departments have held more than 20,000 private enterprise symposiums. The comprehensive service platform for private economic development has received more than 2400 problem requests since its launch more than half a year ago [7]. - The People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2025, stating that since 2025, it has strengthened situation analysis, prepared policy reserves, introduced a package of monetary policy measures, and effectively promoted various tasks [8]. - The Ministry of Finance conducted the first reissuance of the 2025 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (Phase III). The reissued bonds are 50-year fixed-rate interest-bearing bonds with a competitive tender face value of 35 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 2.10%. As of August 1st, 796 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been issued, reaching 61% of the annual issuance plan [8]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan. This week, 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [9]. Valuation Analysis - As of August 1st, the PE, PB, and their respective percentile points of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are provided [12]. - The concept and calculation formulas of the stock-bond yield spread are introduced [22]. China - Buffett Indicator - On July 31st, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 80.03%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 75.10%, and in the past 10 years' data, it was 73.51% [24]. Comprehensive Analysis - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern this week. The macro environment presents a game between "policy support" and "weak economic recovery." The extension of the 24% reciprocal tariff suspension period between China and the US has alleviated market concerns, but structural contradictions remain [25]. - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, indicating continued pressure on corporate profits. However, policy support continues, and consumer and manufacturing sectors may receive support [25]. - In terms of market style, funds may continue to rotate between defensive sectors and policy-driven sectors. The convergence of stock index futures discounts reflects a weakening of short-selling pressure, but the high proportion of net short positions in the IM contract means that the volatility risk of small and medium-cap stocks needs to be watched out for [25].
A 股市场,上周持续走强
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the A-share market showed many highlights, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,600 points during the week. The current market risk appetite is high, and the capital acceptance ability is strong. The policy and liquidity environment have entered a relatively favorable stage, and the expansion of the general trend is the main theme of the market. However, as the market rises rapidly, structural risks are emerging, and there is a game between fundamental pressure and policy hedging. This week, the market is expected to continue the pattern of shock and strength. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic policy guidance and the results of China-US trade talks [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **A-share Indexes**: On July 25, the three major A-share indexes collectively declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3,593.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 11,168.14 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23% to 2,340.06 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 178.73 billion yuan [2]. - **Bond Market**: Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell. The 30-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 2.14% and closed at 117.950 yuan; the 10-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.58% and closed at 108.180 yuan; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.41% and closed at 105.570 yuan; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a weekly decline of 0.12% and closed at 102.310 yuan [3]. - **Stock Index Futures Market**: Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a continuous strengthening trend. The CSI 300 futures (IF2509) closed at 4,116.0 with a weekly increase of 1.84%; the SSE 50 futures (IH2509) closed at 2,796.8 with a weekly increase of 1.08%; the CSI 500 futures (IC2509) closed at 6,216.0 with a weekly increase of 3.59%; the CSI 1000 futures (IM2509) closed at 6,605.8 with a weekly increase of 3.00% [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Profit**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. From January to June, the profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year-on-year, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 22.8%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13%, and the mining industry's profits decreased by 30.3% year-on-year [8]. - **Agricultural Policy**: Ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption", aiming to optimize the supply of high-quality green products, meet multi-level consumption needs, and promote the R & D of new food ingredients [8]. - **US Economic Data and Policy**: The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting from July 29 to 30. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the interest rate in the current range of 4.25% - 4.5%. The US will release the second-quarter GDP preliminary data on July 30, with the market expecting an annualized quarterly rate of 2.5%. On August 1, the US will release the July non-farm payroll data, with the market expecting an increase of 102,000 in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [9]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 165.63 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 40 billion yuan of MLF operations, and 10 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit operations this week. There were 172.68 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, 20 billion yuan of MLF maturities, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit maturities. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 165.63 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [9][10]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - **Index Valuation**: As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.59 times, with a percentile of 77.45%, and the PB was 1.43 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.48 times, with a percentile of 85.1%, and the PB was 1.27 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 41.19 times, with a percentile of 66.27%, and the PB was 2.29 times [14]. - **Stock-Bond Yield Spread**: The stock-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. Two formulas are provided for calculation. The data of the CSI 300 stock-bond yield spread is presented [18].
A股市场上周持续走强
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:48
Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, 2025, China's A-share market showed a slight upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5711 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a strengthening trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.21%, 0.56%, 1.36%, and 1.48% respectively [3]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium on the analysis of the macroeconomic situation in the first half of 2025. Some members put forward suggestions on stabilizing and activating the capital market, promoting technological innovation in the private sector, and other aspects [8]. - From 2020 to 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.1 trillion yuan to 48.3 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. It is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [8]. - In the first half of this year, central state-owned enterprises achieved an added value of 5.2 trillion yuan and completed fixed - asset investment of 2 trillion yuan. In the second half of the year, they will focus on developing new - quality productive forces [8]. - From July 12 - 18, there were 97 domestic investment and financing events, a 21.25% increase from the previous week. The total disclosed financing amount was about 5.041 billion yuan, an 8.85% increase. The artificial intelligence field had the highest disclosed financing amount, about 2.486 billion yuan [9]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.7268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.2011 trillion yuan. This week, 1.7268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 200 billion yuan of MLF, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits are due [9]. 3. Valuation Analysis - As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.32 times, with a percentile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.40 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.33 times, with a percentile of 82.75%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.1 times, with a percentile of 61.96%, and the PB was 2.23 times [12]. - The report introduced two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [19]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF2509) closed at 4041.80 points on July 18, with a weekly increase of 1.21%. The current low risk - free interest rate and reduced supply of high - yield risk - free assets have created favorable conditions for incremental funds to enter the market. The market is expected to continue a moderately strong trend this week, but there may be insufficient momentum for a significant upward movement in the short term. Traders are advised to control risks [28].
基本功 | 买股还是买债?这个神奇指标了解一下
中泰证券资管· 2025-07-17 09:05
Group 1 - The core concept emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that a solid understanding of investment basics is crucial for success [2] Group 2 - The article introduces the concept of the equity-bond yield spread, which is the difference between the expected returns of stocks and bonds, highlighting its significance in assessing investment value [3]
3500点到底是高是低?现在到底贵不贵?
雪球· 2025-07-14 08:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of a stable valuation system for investors to navigate market fluctuations and make informed decisions, especially during periods of market uncertainty [3][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation Insights - On September 12, 2024, the overall market PB reached a historical low, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - The current valuation of the A-share market is at 42.36°C, which is considered a normal valuation stage, suggesting that while it is not overly expensive, the safety margin is lower than before [15][23]. - The article emphasizes that opportunities often arise during periods of extreme pessimism, as seen in past market conditions [9][10]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The "All Market Temperature" is calculated using a weighted average of PE and PB ratios, with the current temperature indicating a normal valuation phase [15]. - The Graham Index, which reflects the potential return of equity markets relative to risk-free rates, has been adjusted to lower its weight due to recent distortions caused by declining interest rates [16]. - The stock-bond yield spread, currently at 3.32%, indicates that the equity market's earnings yield is approximately double the risk-free rate, which has been a driving force behind recent market rallies [23]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advises against excessive greed or chasing high returns, as current valuations suggest a normal range with insufficient safety margins for new investments [25]. - It highlights the importance of a valuation judgment as a foundational element for long-term investment strategies, helping investors maintain confidence during market uncertainties [26].
A股市场上周震荡走强
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 06:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the futures market showing a differentiated pattern. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A-share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors mostly rose, with shipbuilding, small metals, securities, diversified finance, and software development leading the gains, while glass fiber, engineering consulting services, and the banking sector leading the losses [2]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a differentiated trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.46%, 1.27%, 2.69%, and 3.40% respectively [2]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjust the assessment methods of "return on net assets" and "(state - owned) capital preservation and appreciation rate" [7]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the compilation plan of the ChiNext Composite Index on July 25, including introducing a monthly elimination mechanism for risk - warning stocks and an ESG negative elimination mechanism [7]. - As of July 12, 483 companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, of which 281 reported good news, accounting for 58.18%, and 155 are expected to have a net profit increase of over 100% [8]. - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan. This week, 42.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 10 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 15 [8]. Valuation Analysis - As of July 11, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.34 times, the percentile was 72.35%, and the PB was 1.39 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.42 times, the percentile was 84.12%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.33 times, the percentile was 58.24%, and the PB was 2.18 times [9]. - Two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread are provided, one based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the other based on the dividend yield [15][17]. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contracts of stock index futures showed a volatile upward trend, but there were obvious differences among varieties. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A - share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [20].
股指周报:流动性宽松预期市场重心显著上移-20250630
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 11:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market ended its weak oscillation last week, with major indices rebounding across the board and the market center significantly shifting upwards. However, trading volume shrank in the second half of the week, indicating increased capital divergence. The index rebound was due to the Fed's more moderate stance on short - term interest rate cuts, the inflow of funds into the stablecoin sector due to regulatory policies, and the limited impact of the end of the Middle East (Israel - Iran) geopolitical conflict on the A - share market. It is expected that the stock index will likely oscillate in the future, with limited upside due to insufficient financing demand and a weak inflation environment, but a low probability of a significant decline due to the support of allocation - type funds. In a stable volatility environment, the calendar spread strategy can be used for stock index options to earn Theta returns [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On June 27, the three major A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% to close at 3424.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 10378.55 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to 2124.34 points. Most industry sectors rose, with non - ferrous metals, diversified finance, professional services, small metals, electronic components, power supply equipment, and communication services leading the gains, while banks, insurance, the mining industry, and tourism hotels led the losses. Last week, stock index futures closed up collectively, with small - and medium - cap varieties rising significantly more than large - cap blue - chips. The four major stock index futures' main contracts saw both long and short positions increase significantly, with short - position increases greater than long - position increases, especially in the IM contract [5]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures fell, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds rose slightly. The 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.37% to close at 120.89 yuan, the 10 - year fell 0.11% to 109.045 yuan, the 5 - year rose 0.01% to 106.265 yuan, and the 2 - year rose 0.03% to 102.542 yuan [6]. - Last week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 126.72 billion yuan, resulting in abundant short - term liquidity [7][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the total operating revenue of state - owned and state - holding enterprises nationwide decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.8% year - on - year [8]. - The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's 2025 Q2 meeting noted that macro - control has been strengthened this year, with moderately loose monetary policy, enhanced counter - cyclical adjustment, and the use of multiple monetary policy tools to serve high - quality economic development. The efficiency of the loan market quotation rate reform has continued to be released, the deposit rate market - based adjustment mechanism has played an effective role, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy has increased, and social financing costs are at a historically low level. The foreign exchange market supply and demand are basically balanced, the current account surplus is stable, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the RMB exchange rate is floating bidirectionally and remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The financial market is generally operating stably. The current external environment is more complex and severe, with weakening global economic growth momentum, increasing trade barriers, and differentiated economic performances among major economies, as well as uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [8]. - The US dollar's "bull - to - bear" trend has advanced further. The RMB exchange rate's appreciation has been relatively "restrained." Since June, more emerging - market investment funds have shifted their RMB positions from short to long, expecting the RMB's equilibrium exchange rate to rise to between 7.13 and 7.18 due to the easing of tariff frictions and the increasing expectation of an early Fed rate cut. They are also watching China's economic fundamentals and geopolitical risks to determine if the RMB will have a catch - up rally [9]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinions on adjusting the price limit ratio of risk - warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, to be consistent with other main - board stocks [9]. - Next week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 22.05 billion, 40.65 billion, 36.53 billion, 50.93 billion, and 52.59 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [10][11]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of June 28, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, with a percentile of 64.31%, and the PB was 1.36 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.19 times, with a percentile of 80.39%, and the PB was 1.22 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.47 times, with a percentile of 52.16%, and the PB was 2.13 times [13]. - The report also introduced the concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond yield spread, including using the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the dividend yield [22][23].
股指周报:涨跌分化,中小盘品种承压-20250623
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:52
Group 1: Market Performance - On June 20, the three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3359.90 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.47% to 10005.03 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.84% to 2009.89 points. There were more falling sectors than rising ones [2]. - Last week, stock index futures closed down. The decline of small and medium - cap varieties was significantly greater than that of large - cap blue - chips. The CSI 300 futures (IF2506) fell 0.19%, the SSE 50 futures (IH2506) rose 0.38%, the CSI 500 futures (IC2506) dropped 1.42%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM2506) declined 1.14% [2][3]. - Last week, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.71%, the 10 - year rose 0.21%, the 5 - year rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year rose 0.09% [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9662.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 7915.6 billion yuan, down 1.6% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue was 1746.7 billion yuan, up 6.2% year - on - year. Central revenue decreased by 3%, while local revenue increased by 1.9%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11295.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The inter - connection of the fast payment systems between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong was launched, and cross - border payment services were launched in Shenzhen on June 22. The initial participating institutions included major banks in the mainland and Hong Kong [10]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. This week, there are 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. This week, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature [11]. - On June 21, US President Trump claimed that the US had attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities. US B - 2 bombers were reported to be involved, and Iran had no response [15]. - On June 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous period [15]. - In the first five months of this year, the balance of household time deposits increased monthly, reaching 119.34 trillion yuan in May. The proportion of household time deposits reached a record high in May [15]. Group 3: Valuation Analysis - As of June 20, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.83 times with a quantile of 60%, and the PB was 1.34 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.08 times with a quantile of 78.04%, and the PB was 1.21 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.87 times with a quantile of 42.35%, and the PB was 2.04 times [16][17]. Group 4: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating it: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. Group 5: Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the A - share market continued its weak and volatile pattern. External pressure increased due to the Fed's hawkish stance and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, while internal momentum was insufficient due to the policy vacuum and doubts about economic recovery [27]. - In the short term, the A - share index futures are difficult to break the oscillation pattern. The strategy should be "box threshold operation + strict stop - loss", and maintain a neutral position to wait for policy or geopolitical signals [27].