12月28日，由创业黑马主办的"第17届创业家年会"在北京举办，年会主题为"智业革命 —— 跨越断层，成为新物种 "。峰瑞资本创始合伙人李丰以《AI投 资的逻辑与展望》为主题做了演讲。 李丰在演讲中表示，从2022年11月份到今天，我们走过了三年AI投资热潮。除了技术创新、大模型非常热之外，本轮AI投资热潮也是历史上钱最多的一 次。2026年谁能创造新的投资叙事和想象空间，谁就能给这些钱更多的理由让钱过来。2026年，当下的AI技术周期已经到了第三阶段，最终要看谁能用 上技术，而不是谁会技术。谁能用技术赚到钱，而不是谁能讲一个不同的技术路线。 以下内容为创业家&i黑马编辑过的演讲节选： 01 本轮AI热潮，是历史上钱最多的一次 下面用不同的视角，看看当下的AI投资。现在AI非常热，中美竞争非常激烈。从2022年11月份ChatGPT出现到今天，我们走过了三年AI投资热潮。 这次特别热，我们不妨换个角度理解"特别热"，除了技术创新、大模型外，还有什么？还有一件事，或许不容易被考虑到，这次是历史上钱最多的一次。 这有一点点宏观的问题，2020年，全球排名前五的主要央行，扩表了12万亿美金。用老百姓的话说，就是这些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has significant growth potential, supported by unprecedented government policies aimed at boosting the market and direct financing, with a reasonable target for the market to exceed 150% of GDP, indicating that the 4000-point level may just be the beginning, and the 3000-point level may not be seen again [1][2]. Group 1 - The Chinese GDP is projected to surpass the United States by 2037, with an expected increase of 15 trillion USD from the current 18 trillion USD [2][3]. - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to increase by at least 10 trillion USD in market value, rising from the current 11 trillion USD, with this growth driven by new sectors including artificial intelligence [2][3]. - The era of large technology companies in China is emerging, with the largest Chinese company, Tencent, valued at approximately 770 billion USD, compared to nearly 5 trillion USD for the largest U.S. company, highlighting the potential for growth in the number of companies valued at over 1 trillion USD in China [2][3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent structural bull market in sectors like chips, AI, and computing power, leading to rising valuations across various indices [4]. Market Temperature Analysis - The current market temperature is at 59.86 degrees, indicating a neutral to slightly hot market, which is higher than the temperatures during the bull markets of 2015 and 2021 [10][12]. - A market temperature below 20 degrees is considered a good time for dollar-cost averaging, while above 60 degrees indicates a hot market where opportunities become more selective [7][10]. Valuation Indicators - The stock-bond yield spread is currently at 2.59%, which is within a reasonable range, suggesting that equity assets have a higher value proposition compared to bonds [15]. - The Graham index, which measures the price-to-earnings ratio against the risk-free rate, is at 2.394, indicating a high equity market attractiveness due to low bond yields [19][20]. - The Buffett index, representing the market's total capitalization relative to GDP, is at 97.89%, indicating a high level of market capitalization compared to economic output [22]. Index Temperature Overview - The article provides a detailed analysis of various indices, including core broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, with their respective temperatures and valuation metrics [26][27]. - Most major broad-based indices are currently in a normal valuation range, with some small-cap indices entering a slightly high valuation phase [28]. Sector and Strategy Indices - The article highlights the importance of dividend indices as a defensive strategy, with several indices showing lower temperatures, indicating potential investment opportunities [38][39]. - It also discusses the characteristics of various sector indices, emphasizing the need for careful selection, especially for new investors [47][49]. Emerging and Cyclical Industries - New and cyclical industries are noted as challenging areas for investment, often subject to volatility and requiring strong industry insight [50][51]. - The article advises against early involvement in emerging and cyclical industry indices for most new investors [52].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2025, with major indices experiencing significant gains, indicating a potential "slow bull" market [3][29]. Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has successfully maintained above 3600 points for the first time in three and a half years, with the CSI 300 up 4.77% year-to-date and the Hang Seng Index up 24.16% [3][5]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has exceeded 16,000 billion RMB since July, marking an increase of nearly 10,000 billion compared to the same period last year [3][5]. - Over the past three months, major indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 800 have seen gains of around 8%, while the past year has seen increases of over 20% for most indices, with the ChiNext Index and Hang Seng Tech Index recording around 50% growth [3][5]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for major indices are around 70% based on a ten-year perspective, indicating a relatively high valuation, except for the ChiNext and Hang Seng Tech indices, which are closer to historical lows [6][7]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios for A-share indices are around 40%, suggesting that while P/E ratios may indicate overvaluation, P/B ratios appear more reasonable due to stable net asset growth despite declining profits [8][10]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has reached a peak, with the A-share market experiencing a consecutive rise since August 4, 2025, and trading volumes surpassing 20 trillion RMB, placing current trading activity at the 99.30% historical percentile [15][19]. - The margin financing balance has also remained above 2 trillion RMB, indicating a high level of leveraged investment activity, although the ratio of margin financing to total market capitalization is at 66.10%, suggesting it is not at an extreme level [19][21]. Sector Performance - Among various sectors, the telecommunications sector has seen the highest increase of 27.91% over the past three months, while the food and beverage sector has declined by 5.52% [22][24]. - A total of 16 sectors have P/E ratios exceeding the historical 50% percentile, indicating potential overvaluation, while sectors like public utilities and non-bank financials are below the 20% percentile, suggesting undervaluation opportunities [25][26]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio and avoid emotional trading, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term gains [30][31]. - It is recommended to consider broad market indices or well-tested actively managed funds for those uncertain about specific sectors [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of a stable valuation system for investors to navigate market fluctuations and make informed decisions, especially during periods of market uncertainty [3][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation Insights - On September 12, 2024, the overall market PB reached a historical low, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - The current valuation of the A-share market is at 42.36°C, which is considered a normal valuation stage, suggesting that while it is not overly expensive, the safety margin is lower than before [15][23]. - The article emphasizes that opportunities often arise during periods of extreme pessimism, as seen in past market conditions [9][10]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The "All Market Temperature" is calculated using a weighted average of PE and PB ratios, with the current temperature indicating a normal valuation phase [15]. - The Graham Index, which reflects the potential return of equity markets relative to risk-free rates, has been adjusted to lower its weight due to recent distortions caused by declining interest rates [16]. - The stock-bond yield spread, currently at 3.32%, indicates that the equity market's earnings yield is approximately double the risk-free rate, which has been a driving force behind recent market rallies [23]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advises against excessive greed or chasing high returns, as current valuations suggest a normal range with insufficient safety margins for new investments [25]. - It highlights the importance of a valuation judgment as a foundational element for long-term investment strategies, helping investors maintain confidence during market uncertainties [26].