Core Insights - The article discusses the recent structural bull market in sectors like chips, AI, and computing power, leading to rising valuations across various indices [4]. Market Temperature Analysis - The current market temperature is at 59.86 degrees, indicating a neutral to slightly hot market, which is higher than the temperatures during the bull markets of 2015 and 2021 [10][12]. - A market temperature below 20 degrees is considered a good time for dollar-cost averaging, while above 60 degrees indicates a hot market where opportunities become more selective [7][10]. Valuation Indicators - The stock-bond yield spread is currently at 2.59%, which is within a reasonable range, suggesting that equity assets have a higher value proposition compared to bonds [15]. - The Graham index, which measures the price-to-earnings ratio against the risk-free rate, is at 2.394, indicating a high equity market attractiveness due to low bond yields [19][20]. - The Buffett index, representing the market's total capitalization relative to GDP, is at 97.89%, indicating a high level of market capitalization compared to economic output [22]. Index Temperature Overview - The article provides a detailed analysis of various indices, including core broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, with their respective temperatures and valuation metrics [26][27]. - Most major broad-based indices are currently in a normal valuation range, with some small-cap indices entering a slightly high valuation phase [28]. Sector and Strategy Indices - The article highlights the importance of dividend indices as a defensive strategy, with several indices showing lower temperatures, indicating potential investment opportunities [38][39]. - It also discusses the characteristics of various sector indices, emphasizing the need for careful selection, especially for new investors [47][49]. Emerging and Cyclical Industries - New and cyclical industries are noted as challenging areas for investment, often subject to volatility and requiring strong industry insight [50][51]. - The article advises against early involvement in emerging and cyclical industry indices for most new investors [52].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2025, with major indices experiencing significant gains, indicating a potential "slow bull" market [3][29]. Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has successfully maintained above 3600 points for the first time in three and a half years, with the CSI 300 up 4.77% year-to-date and the Hang Seng Index up 24.16% [3][5]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has exceeded 16,000 billion RMB since July, marking an increase of nearly 10,000 billion compared to the same period last year [3][5]. - Over the past three months, major indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 800 have seen gains of around 8%, while the past year has seen increases of over 20% for most indices, with the ChiNext Index and Hang Seng Tech Index recording around 50% growth [3][5]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for major indices are around 70% based on a ten-year perspective, indicating a relatively high valuation, except for the ChiNext and Hang Seng Tech indices, which are closer to historical lows [6][7]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios for A-share indices are around 40%, suggesting that while P/E ratios may indicate overvaluation, P/B ratios appear more reasonable due to stable net asset growth despite declining profits [8][10]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has reached a peak, with the A-share market experiencing a consecutive rise since August 4, 2025, and trading volumes surpassing 20 trillion RMB, placing current trading activity at the 99.30% historical percentile [15][19]. - The margin financing balance has also remained above 2 trillion RMB, indicating a high level of leveraged investment activity, although the ratio of margin financing to total market capitalization is at 66.10%, suggesting it is not at an extreme level [19][21]. Sector Performance - Among various sectors, the telecommunications sector has seen the highest increase of 27.91% over the past three months, while the food and beverage sector has declined by 5.52% [22][24]. - A total of 16 sectors have P/E ratios exceeding the historical 50% percentile, indicating potential overvaluation, while sectors like public utilities and non-bank financials are below the 20% percentile, suggesting undervaluation opportunities [25][26]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio and avoid emotional trading, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term gains [30][31]. - It is recommended to consider broad market indices or well-tested actively managed funds for those uncertain about specific sectors [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of a stable valuation system for investors to navigate market fluctuations and make informed decisions, especially during periods of market uncertainty [3][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation Insights - On September 12, 2024, the overall market PB reached a historical low, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - The current valuation of the A-share market is at 42.36°C, which is considered a normal valuation stage, suggesting that while it is not overly expensive, the safety margin is lower than before [15][23]. - The article emphasizes that opportunities often arise during periods of extreme pessimism, as seen in past market conditions [9][10]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The "All Market Temperature" is calculated using a weighted average of PE and PB ratios, with the current temperature indicating a normal valuation phase [15]. - The Graham Index, which reflects the potential return of equity markets relative to risk-free rates, has been adjusted to lower its weight due to recent distortions caused by declining interest rates [16]. - The stock-bond yield spread, currently at 3.32%, indicates that the equity market's earnings yield is approximately double the risk-free rate, which has been a driving force behind recent market rallies [23]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advises against excessive greed or chasing high returns, as current valuations suggest a normal range with insufficient safety margins for new investments [25]. - It highlights the importance of a valuation judgment as a foundational element for long-term investment strategies, helping investors maintain confidence during market uncertainties [26].